NBA Finals Best Bets: Game 2

Bro, I was straight up not having a good time during Game 1. Was taking the Steph under maybe too much of a Big Brain move?

Yes. I’m feeling thankful for Kevon Looney saving us with his rebounding number.

But it’s time to have short memories and move onto Game 2. We now have a game under our belt for analysis, so we can make some smarter plays.

Categories:
Layups: 2-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers: 1-Unit Plays
Three-Pointers: 0.75-Unit Plays
Half-Court Shot: 0.5-Unit Plays

Record: 86-76-3 (+6.13 units)
Last Week: 1-4 (-3.8 units)

Layups

Kevon Looney Over 11.5 Rebounds/Assists (-106): (Mom from “Home Alone” voice) “KEVON!” Looney gave us our only win in Game 1, so it’s only right to ride him again. He’s hit this over in five of his last seven games, and when he plays over 25 minutes, that hit rate rises to 80%.

He played 25 minutes in Game 1, and would’ve probably played more had he not been phased out down the stretch when the Warriors got desperate trying to come back. He averaged 30 minutes a game in the Mavs series, so another busy game is likely for Looney, and he’ll see plenty of rebounds and assist chances with his aggressiveness down low.

Two-Pointers

Under 215.5 (-110): Game 1 seems like it’ll be remembered as a bit of an outlier. Both teams were just hitting ridiculous shots, with Golden State shooting 42% from three and Boston hitting 51% from deep. The teams combined to hit 40 threes! Math tells us that both teams will most likely regress in Game 2, and I have no choice but to trust the math.

According to the Twitter account @Shot_Quality, which tracks shot quality in all NBA games, the actual score based on the type of shots taken would’ve been Celtics 104-92 — under the 214.5 closing total. I think we’ll see a similar type of score in Game 2 when both defenses make their adjustments and the pace slows down a bit.

Three-Pointers

Jayson Tatum Over 6.5 Rebounds (-125): Sure, this is a little juiced, but Tatum’s rebounding in Game 1 wasn’t on par with what we’ve come to expect in the postseason. He averages 6.6 rebounds a game in the playoffs and averaged eight during the regular season. Other than assists, it was simply an off-night for Boston’s best player, so a bounce-back performance should be expected here.