NBA Finals Best Bets: Game 3

Math was probably one of my weakest subjects in school, so the irony isn’t lost on me that for Game 3, we’re embracing mathematics.

It’s time to trust the numbers because my gut picks certainly weren’t getting us anywhere!

Categories:
Layups: 2-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers: 1-Unit Plays
Three-Pointers: 0.75-Unit Plays
Half-Court Shot: 0.5-Unit Plays

Record: 87-78-3 (+5.18 units)
Last Week: 1-2 (-.95 units)

Layups

Celtics -3.5 (-110): You hate to be on the side everyone is taking but I am beholden to the math here and it all adds up for Boston. The Celtics carry a 70% winning percentage after a loss this season and have yet to lose back-to-back games in this playoff run. Meanwhile, the Warriors see their stats drop significantly on the road. They go from averaging 116 ppg as the home team to 110 and their three-point percentage drops from 40% to 34%. I still believe the Celtics are the better team in this series, and being back at home after a pretty embarrassing loss is one of those ideal spots for betting them.

Two-Pointers

Boston Celtics Over 14.5 Threes Made (-120): The C’s love the threes. It’s no secret that there’s been a stupid amount of three-pointers taken in this series, which saw 40 total MADE threes in Game 1. Boston hit 15 threes in Game 2 and 21 in Game 1 and is averaging 39 three-point attempts per game so far in the Finals. The stars are aligning just right for a barrage of threes tonight, so let’s get on that train while it’s still in the station.

Three-Pointers

Jayson Tatum Over 39.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-120): It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster for Tatum in this series. He scored 28 points in Game 2 after a pretty bad Game 1. And now, after a tough loss, I think this is Tatum’s spot to shine. He’s averaged 31.5 points a game after losses this postseason, and his home/road splits clearly show a better player while in Boston. Tatum has more points, rebounds, and a better three-point percentage at home than on the road. Tatum keeps talking about Kobe influencing him, so it’s time to see him actually perform in a crucial Game 3.

Celtics Over 107.5 Team Total Points (-115): I might have a little TOO much time on my hands because I went back to see how the Celtics have done after scoring under 100 points in a game. And since Jan. 1, after scoring under 100 points, Boston averages 109.6 points in their next game. Well, they’re now coming off an 88-point stinker, so if the math is correct, they should have a decent shot at going over their team total tonight. Plus, the Warriors have given up a pedestrian 109 ppg on the road this season. The Celtics are too good of a team to get embarrassed and not respond, so let’s put a little cash on it, shall we?