NBA Finals Best Bets: Game 4

Shoutout to Jayson Tatum for giving us some dubs on Wednesday. Love you.

The theme tonight is the zig-zag theory. Now, I’m not a professor, nor am I particularly smart, BUT the zig-zag theory for sports betting is real. Look it up, there’ll be a quiz next week. Essentially, teams and players go up and down throughout a series, so fade the trends.

We’ve got all one-unit plays tonight, so let’s stay hot.

Categories:
Layups: 2-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers: 1-Unit Plays
Three-Pointers: 0.75-Unit Plays
Half-Court Shot: 0.5-Unit Plays

Record: 90-79-3 (+7.3 units)
Last Week: 3-1 (+2.08 units)

Two-Pointers

Under 214.5 (-110): We’re going to follow the zig-zag theory to a ‘T’ with this one. Game 1: over. Game 2: under. Game 3: over. Game 4: under? The pattern, I’m hoping, will hold here. I think it makes sense, as these two teams make smart defensive adjustments. 215 marks the highest total opening we’ve seen so far in the series, and it was rightly bet down half a point immediately. This will also be the shortest amount of time between two games in the series, so tired legs could come into play.

The pace of these games — 98.6 to be exact — has been slow, which bodes well for unders. And we again saw a quarter where a team put up a clunker on offense, with Golden State scoring just 11 points in the fourth. I think with a big Game 4 for the Warriors coming up, we’ll see a more deliberate team — both in their offense and with a more aggressive defense (*cough* more Draymond Green *cough*). Plus, both teams have been under their average free-throw attempts, which means shooting fouls won’t have too much of an effect.

Jaylen Brown Under 24.5 Points (-120): Looking back at Brown’s stats, a weird pattern emerges. Almost every time he scores 25+ points in a playoff game, he scores under 25 in the next game. The only outlier was Game 3 against the Bucks, where he scored 27 after getting 30 in Game 2. But after that, the trend holds. He’s coming off a 27-point game where he shot 56% from the field, when he usually averages 47.5% in the postseason. I’m betting on a slight regression and around a 22-point game from Brown in Game 4.

Draymond Green Over 6.5 Rebounds (-134): I’m staying away from Draymond’s point total, so let’s go with rebounds. Even in his no-good, terrible, very bad Game 3, Draymond still nabbed four boards (he’s averaging 6.9 in the playoffs). I’m not sure what type of bounce-back game he’ll have in Game 4 after facing a ton of criticism, but betting on him to get back on track with his rebounds seems like the safest play.

Kevon Looney Over 13.5 Points/Rebounds (-113): If I’m a sailor, Kevon Looney is an ocean siren luring me in with his tempting betting numbers. I was successful in Game 1, but he failed me for Game 2 and we crashed into the rocks. Like I said, I’m not the brightest, so I’m moving toward the sweet sound of Looney’s points/rebounds number once again.

He only played 17 minutes in Game 3 and STILL almost hit over this number. He did it in Game 2 and was one away in Game 1. The Warriors were severely out-rebounded in Game 3, so some Steve Kerr adjustments are certainly on the horizon. We’ve seen the Celtics’ defense ignore Looney before when he went off for 12 points in Game 2, so let’s get a relatively low number with a pretty nice upside if Looney sees more minutes.