NBA Finals Best Bets: Game 5

I’ll be honest, I’m still riding the high of going 4-0 on Friday. What a rush. What a night of celebratory drinking (followed by Saturday morning’s Advil).

Apparently, the public LOVES the Warriors -3.5, which means it’s time to initiate Operation: Fade the Public.

Categories:
Layups: 2-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers: 1-Unit Plays
Three-Pointers: 0.75-Unit Plays
Half-Court Shot: 0.5-Unit Plays

Record: 94-79-3 (+10.64 units)
Playoffs: 34-30 (+4.4 units)
Last Week: 4-0 (+3.38 units)

Layups

First-Half Over 102.5 (-110): It’s been the Jekyll and Hyde of halves in this series. The pace and scoring typically have slowed down in the second half when both teams combine for about 100 points. In the first half, though? The teams combine for an average of 109 points. Boston specifically goes from scoring 57 points on average in the first half to scoring 48 in the second half. Let’s count on a fast start after a weekend of rest. The total in this game is one of the lowest of the series, so just like we faded the high total in Game 4, let’s take advantage of a low one in Game 5.

Two-Pointers

Celtics ML (+145): The almighty math says the Celtics are a REALLY good team after a loss in the playoffs. I’m riding with the numbers that say Boston is 7-0 straight-up and ATS after a loss. They also haven’t lost two consecutive games in the postseason. Sure, they’ve had issues guarding Steph Curry in the pick-and-roll, and they can have some long scoring droughts. But they’ve also shown an ability to fix all their issues within one game. Don’t let the road factor deter you, as Boston averages more points per game AND shoots a better field goal percentage when playing on the road. The C’s are due for a bounce-back game, so let’s take the juicy moneyline to cash in.

Three-Pointers

Celtics Three-Pointers Made Over 14.5 (-110): One of the issues Celtics coach Ime Udoka brought up after his team’s Game 4 loss was offensive inconsistency. But as we’ve established, Boston bounces back well, so let’s go with them making a bunch of threes. They average 16 made threes a game in the Finals, and have averaged 18 threes made on the road in the Finals, so they should hit this number from beyond the arc.

Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 Threes (-125): Just like we faded Brown’s play in Game 4, it’s time to get back on his train for Game 5. He only made two threes on six attempts last game, so a bounce-back game could be in the works. He’s averaging exactly 2.5 threes a game in the playoffs and three threes a game on the road in the last 10 games. The last time he had a poor three-point shooting night, he came back with three deep shots. If we’re going to hit the team three-pointers over, we might as well back Brown to help us out.