We did it! A perfect week.
The losing streak has been broken as we take some positive momentum into tonight.
It’s time for the classic zig-zag theory as we follow a team after a loss and fade a squad that’s been playing well.
Categories:
Layups: 2-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers: 1-Unit Plays
Three-Pointers: 0.75-Unit Plays
Half-Court Shot: 0.5-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers
Celtics -3.5 1H (-110): I love betting the Celtics after losses. Over the last eight games, they’ve gone 4-4, and after every loss, they’ve not only won the following game but they’ve also covered. And while I think -7.5 is a solid play for the C’s, I’m going with their first-half line. At home this year, Boston is 26-19-1 ATS in the first half, and 3-1-1 over their last five games. Home is where the first-half covers are, folks.
Malcolm Brogdon Over 21.5 Points/Reb/Ast (-110): Even off the bench, Brogdon has been a focal point for the Celtics’ offense. In this series with the 76ers alone, Brogdon’s PRA numbers have been over 21.5 in all four games — once even reaching the over in points alone. In Boston’s six playoff wins, Brogdon averages over 22 PRA. Tonight, Boston is favored by more than seven, so Brogdon should get plenty of chances to ramp up his stats.
Three-Pointers
Celtics Team Total Over 110.5 (-110): Clearly, I love Boston tonight. As much as that makes me feel bad on the inside, it’s a number that just feels too low. They’ve gone over this number in every game this year, and score the third-most points at home (120.1). The 76ers have also been fairly abysmal defensively, posting a 123.7 defensive rating in this round, which is good for the worst among the eight teams left. With this number clearly attainable, I’m happy to take a shot at the over.
Suns Team Total Under 110.5 (-110): At home, the Suns are juggernauts offensively. But on the road, I think we see a different team — especially a mile above sea level. In the two games in Denver in this series, Phoenix has fallen under this number both times.
We’ve seen great offense from the Suns and bad defense from Denver the past two games, and with the series flipping back to Denver, some regression (both positive and negative) should be expected. With a tied series, we’ll likely see a slower pace, and I doubt we see 70+ combined points from Kevin Durant and Devin Booker again. Let’s fade the Suns on the road tonight.
