Folks, we are in ‘Fade Me’ territory.
It was just a rough betting week in general for me. So, whatever bet I give out below, just fade them. It’s really that simple.
You’ll likely make money while I continue down the path of never again winning a bet. Such is life.
With that said, here are my picks for tonight’s insane NBA slate!
Categories:
Layups: 2-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers: 1-Unit Plays
Three-Pointers: 0.75-Unit Plays
Half-Court Shot: 0.5-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers
Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 Threes (-115): This is betting on a good player after a bad game. Mitchell is coming off an 11-point game. It was rough. Back at home in a must-win game, Mitchell should not only play better, but his usage rate will be high. He won’t record a goose egg from three again, and he’s also gotten over this number in four of his last eight games. He hit six threes in Game 1 at home, and I expect a similar type of game script.
The Knicks can’t defend the three, and I really hope J.B. Bickerstaff and Co. have figured that out. During the regular season, New York gave up the fifth-most threes attempted per game. They really don’t defend that shot with much intensity, and this is where Mitchell should attack in Game 5.
Grizzlies 1H -2 (-113): Home is where the wins against the spread are. The Grizz are a different team in the first half at home. They’re number one in the NBA in first-half ATS numbers and have won seven of their last 10 first-half ATS in Memphis. After a tough road loss in LA, being back on home court in a must-win game provides plenty of reasons for Memphis to start out hot. The Grizzlies have burned me a lot this season, so I’m giving them one more chance to make it up to me!
Kings ML (+108): The Warriors are just a different team on the road, which their 11-30 regular season road record indicates. Sure, Golden State has looked great the past two games at home, but with the series shifting back to Sacramento, the Kings should feel right at… home.
Sac Town has the second-best field goal percentage at home, they score the most points in the league at home (123), and the Warriors give up the second-most points per game on the road. It all adds up to the Kings seemingly having the advantage, so let’s take them at plus-money.
Half-Court Shot
Jrue Holiday Over 2.5 Threes (+117): The only reason this is a lower-unit bet is because Holiday seemingly struggles to get over this mark. That said, Holiday is averaging nine threes attempted in this series, and took 11 of them in Game 4. At home, he’s a much better three-point shooter, hitting his downtown shots at a 44% clip, higher than his overall season average of 38%. With the sheer volume of threes that he takes — and a must-win Game 5 — I’ll take a flyer on Jrue to finally break through from deep.
