I don’t know about you, but I thought these NBA Conference Finals would be more fun. Large margins of victory and no wild buzzer-beaters have made for some pretty “meh” series.
But that ends tonight! Boston covers in a thrilling Game 5, while the Mavs-Warriors matchup will be a barnburner with Luka and Co. on their last leg on the road.
Layups: 2-Unit Plays
Two-Pointers: 1-Unit Plays
Three-Pointers: 0.75-Unit Plays
Half-Court Shot: 0.5-Unit Plays
Record: 83-69-3 (+9.92 units)
Last Week: 4-2 (+1.27 units)
Celtics -2.5 (-110): We’re limping into Game 5 in a series where I think Boston is just the better team. Injuries seemingly have been the key to betting thus far, but now we’re through four games, and I don’t think the injury news should be as big a deal now. The Heat won’t have the same God-awful first quarter that they did in Game 4, but the Celtics have too much firepower and defensive ability to lose a crucial Game 5.
With Al Horford, Boston has the rebounding, and if they can get Marcus Smart back, that only improves the defense. With the Heat at home, I don’t see a blowout happening, but the C’s have shown that even with the Defensive Player of the Year out, they have the depth to keep up. Boston shows the world why they’re NBA Finals-worthy tonight.
Kyle Lowry Under 10.5 points (-104): He still isn’t healthy, and he’s barely been able to get over this number since he’s returned. Now that his point total is in the double digits, I have no problem fading him and this Heat offense. The Celtics have shown they can play some of the best defense in the league, and with their size, it doesn’t bode well for an aging Lowry. He had 11 points in his return from injury and then followed that up with a stinker of three points. Somewhere in the middle is where I think he’ll land tonight, keeping us under this point total.
Jalen Brunson Over 1.5 threes (-104) THURSDAY: Other than Game 4, Brunson’s had plenty of chances to hit over 1.5 threes. He averages four three-point attempts a game and took five or more threes in the first three games of the series. The Mavs are underdogs, so Vegas thinks they’re going to have plenty of chances to let it fly from deep — and if Brunson gets five or six threes up, hitting two of them at -104 seems like a nice bet.
Luka Doncic Over 3.5 threes (-130) THURSDAY: The Mavs had their fun in Game 4 and will likely be trailing late in Game 5. Enter Luka and his double-digit three-point attempts. The guy loves to let it fly (he hit three in Game 4 and only shot 27%). He should be a bit more accurate in another must-win game, so putting in four three-balls doesn’t seem that far-fetched.
Mavericks 1H ML (+185) THURSDAY: Their back is against the wall. I think this could be a strong first half for the Mavs, and it’s not like they haven’t done it before. They’ve won two of the four first halves, and covered in three of the four in this series. They start strong — and then the Warriors usually crush their spirit in the third quarter. But we don’t have to worry about that for this bet! Let’s keep riding this tough Mavs team and take the juice these sportsbooks are so willingly giving us.