NCAA Tournament Bracket Scouting Daily: Kansas, Iowa State, FSU & More

Monday is a huge day for the Big 12 with four projected NCAA Tournament teams facing each other. One game will have major ramifications on the Big 12 regular season championship race and Kansas’ ability to keep its streak of regular season titles alive. The other could put Oklahoma squarely on the bubble.

Here’s a look at Monday’s biggest games and how their results could affect the NCAA Tournament resumes of the teams involved.

The NCAA Tournament seed projections listed below are from Stadium’s latest bracket projections, which were published earlier today.

Notre Dame at Florida State, 7 p.m. ET

Florida State (21-6) | No. 26 NET | 5-4 Quadrant 1, 5-2 Quadrant 2, 4-0 Quadrant 3, 7-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s Latest NCAA Tournament Seed Projection: No. 5 seed

Three of Florida State’s four remaining regular season games are at home, which is an encouraging sign for the streaking Seminoles, who have won eight of their last nine games. A home game against Notre Dame, however, will provide little value if Florida State wins, as projects it to on Monday.

Florida State hasn’t suffered a single Quadrant 3 or Quadrant 4 loss and there’s strength in a resume that lacks bad losses. The biggest upcoming games for Florida State come on Saturday (NC State) and Tuesday (Virginia Tech).

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Oklahoma at Iowa State, 8 p.m. ET

Oklahoma (17-10) | No. 40 NET | 3-8 Quadrant 1, 7-2 Quadrant 2, 7-0 Quadrant 3, 0-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s Latest NCAA Tournament Seed Projection: No. 9 seed

Iowa State (19-8) | No. 15 NET | 5-5 Quadrant 1, 3-3 Quadrant 2, 5-0 Quadrant 3, 6-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s Latest NCAA Tournament Seed Projection: No. 6 seed

If Oklahoma loses Monday night in Ames, then the Sooners’ best possible finish in Big 12 play is 8-10 and they still have to play Kansas and Kansas State in the final week of the season. Last season, Oklahoma and Texas made the NCAA Tournament as No. 10 seeds after going 8-10 in the conference (but Baylor and Oklahoma State were sent to the NIT after finishing with the same conference record) so the Sooners are playing with fire.

The Sooners have no bad losses and 10 combined wins in Quadrants 1 and 2, but they’re lacking high-level wins. On the NCAA’s team sheets, where teams’ resumes are broken down into the four quadrants, Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 are split into two levels. Oklahoma has lost all seven of its top-level Quadrant 1 games with its best win this season coming at home over Wofford back in November. A road win at Iowa State would be the Sooners’ best win this season and it would come at a critical time for Oklahoma’s tournament chances.

Iowa State is no longer in the Big 12 regular season title race with an 8-6 conference record that puts the Cyclones three games behind first-place Kansas State with four games to play. An 0-2 week — in which they lost to Baylor and TCU by a combined seven points — puts a damper on what had been a strong month of play from mid-January to mid-February.

The Cyclones have a .500 record in Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 so even though Oklahoma represents a Quadrant 2 game for Iowa State, it would still be an important win for the Cyclones as they try to make a push for a top-four seed.

Kansas State at Kansas, 9 p.m. ET

Kansas State (21-6) | No. 27 NET | 6-4 Quadrant 1, 4-2 Quadrant 2, 8-0 Quadrant 3, 3-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s Latest NCAA Tournament Seed Projection: No. 5 seed

Kansas (20-7) | No. 20 NET | 9-6 Quadrant 1, 4-1 Quadrant 2, 5-0 Quadrant 3, 2-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s Latest NCAA Tournament Seed Projection: No. 3 seed

For all intents and purposes, “The Streak” could effectively come to an end Monday night. Kansas State leads the Big 12 with an 11-3 record – two games ahead of third-place Kansas – with four games to play. If the Wildcats can win inside Allen Fieldhouse, then the Jayhawks will drop to three games behind first place with three games left. That would almost guarantee that the 2019 season would be the first time since the 2004-05 season that Kansas didn’t win at least a share of the Big 12 regular season championship.

However, a win on Monday would cut Kansas State’s lead in the conference to just a half-game over Texas Tech and one game over Kansas. Sure, there are NCAA Tournament implications since this is a Quadrant 1 game for both schools, but those feel secondary to a 14-year streak coming to an end.

MORE: Stadium’s Latest NCAA Tournament Projections