NCAA Tournament Bracket Scouting Daily: Virginia, Wisconsin & K-State

We’re officially less than a month away from Selection Sunday, and we’re about 2.5 weeks from the start of conference tournament play. That means time is running out for schools to climb onto the right side of the projected NCAA Tournament bubble, improve their projected seed or contend for a No. 1 seed.

The latest AP Top 25 Poll featuring a new No. 1 team was released and four ranked teams are in action Monday, including a top-25 matchup between in-state rivals in the ACC. Here’s a look at how tonight’s games can impact the NCAA Tournament resumes for the programs involved.

The NCAA Tournament seed projections listed below are from Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament bracketology update on Monday.

No. 3 Virginia at No. 20 Virginia Tech, 7 p.m. ET

Virginia (22-2): 7-2 Quadrant 1, 5-0 Quadrant 2, 2-0 Quadrant 3, 8-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s Latest NCAA Tournament Seed Projection: No. 1 seed

Virginia Tech (20-5): 3-5 Quadrant 1, 5-0 Quadrant 2, 4-0 Quadrant 3, 8-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s Latest NCAA Tournament Seed Projection: No. 5 seed

Even though Virginia got swept by Duke in the regular season, the Cavaliers are undefeated against the rest of the country, and they’re still in contention for a No. 1 seed. Virginia Tech is one of three non-Duke schools that’s beaten Virginia since the start of last season and a win for the Hokies Monday would be their best win to date this season.

Virginia Tech is 3-5 in Quadrant 1 with three opportunities left – at home versus Virginia and Duke, and on the road against Florida State. They could really use one win and ideally two in that stretch.

Tech is just 3-2 since losing Justin Robinson, but if the Hokies can continue their hot three-point shooting from last week (23-of-51, 45 percent), then they could push the Cavaliers in Blacksburg.

Virginia won the first meeting 81-59 on Jan. 15.

The Cavaliers are five games above .500 in Quadrant 1 with four more regular season opportunities, three of which are on the road. They’ve already won at North Carolina, Maryland and NC State, and kenpom.com projects a two-point Virginia win.

[RELATED: 2019 NCAA Tournament Dates, Schedule, Locations]

Illinois at No. 22 Wisconsin, 8 p.m. ET

Wisconsin (17-8): 7-6 Quadrant 1, 4-2 Quadrant 2, 2-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s Latest NCAA Tournament Seed Projection: No. 5 seed

Is Illinois the most dangerous 10-15 team in the country?

You don’t have to answer that.

But the Fighting Illini have won four in a row and six of their last nine, including wins over Michigan State, Maryland, Minnesota and Ohio State.

Illinois’ recent success combined with Wisconsin’s two-game losing streak at the hands of the top two teams in the conference – Michigan and Michigan State – makes this game intriguing. A road win for Illinois would give Wisconsin a Quadrant 3 loss, which would be its first “bad loss” of the season in its final remaining Quadrant 3 or Quadrant 4 regular season game.

In other words, if the Badgers can protect their home court tonight, they only have the potential to add quality wins without the risk of taking bad losses until the start of the Big Ten Tournament.

No. 23 Kansas State at West Virginia, 9 p.m. ET

Kansas State (19-6): 6-4 Quadrant 1, 3-2 Quadrant 2, 7-0 Quadrant 3, 3-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s Latest NCAA Tournament Seed Projection: No. 5 seed

Speaking of potentially dangerous 10-15 teams, Kansas State plays West Virginia in Morgantown, where Kansas and Oklahoma have already lost this year. After Sagaba Konate’s knee injury and the dismissals of Esa Ahmad and Wesley Harris, the Mountaineers are a shell of the team that started the season ranked in the AP Top 25 Poll, but the Wildcats have a notable injury of their own. Forward Dean Wade suffered a right foot injury over the weekend against Iowa State and his status for Monday’s game is uncertain.

A loss would drop Kansas State to 3-3 in Quadrant 2, the Wildcats would lose sole possession of first place in the conference and there would be serious pressure to avoid a three-game losing streak in a home, Quadrant 3 game against Oklahoma State on Saturday.

Playing at West Virginia is likely the most winnable of Kansas State’s three remaining road games, compared to trips to Kansas and TCU.

TCU at Oklahoma State, 9 p.m. ET

TCU (17-8): 1-6 Quadrant 1, 6-2 Quadrant 2, 5-0 Quadrant 3, 5-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s Latest NCAA Tournament Seed Projection: No. 11 seed

The Horned Frogs weren’t in the Last Four In of Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament bracket projections, but they don’t have much breathing room as a projected No. 11 seed with just one Quadrant 1 victory.

They need wins, in terms of both quantity and quality.

TCU can only get the former Monday night at Oklahoma State, which is No. 91 in the NET rankings. That makes this a Quadrant 2 game – one that would neither represent a “good win” or “bad loss” for TCU, but it’s one that an NCAA Tournament team should probably win.

The Horned Frogs are 5-7 in the Big 12 and they’re projected to finish 8-10, according to kenpom.com, and a win in Stillwater would bring TCU within one game of .500 in conference play. As long as TCU wins at least eight conference games, it still has a shot at an at-large bid.

MORE: These Teams Are “Locks” For the NCAA Tournament