NCAA Tournament Projections As of Feb. 14

Every year we hear the same thing: This season, the bubble is the weakest it has ever been. Normally I just roll my eyes and move on. How easily we forget last year’s bracket. And the year before that.

This year, though, I’m ready to jump on board with that thought.

LAST FOUR IN: Memphis, Purdue, Virginia, Cincinnati
FIRST FOUR OUT: NC State, Stanford, Utah State, VCU
NEXT FOUR OUT:  Georgetown, Richmond, UNC-Greensboro, Oregon State

PAC-12: 5
SEC: 5
BIG 12: 5
AAC: 4
ACC: 3
A-10: 3
WCC: 3

Frankly, the teams that are currently on the right side of the bubble really aren’t that much worse than other years. This year, we have the usual mix. We have teams that have decent records (Arkansas, Memphis) but haven’t really beaten anyone. We have teams with okay records, who sprinkled in a couple of nice wins but nothing more (Arizona State). And then we have a team who has several nice wins (Purdue) but has compiled so many losses that it is easy to see them at .500 by Selection Sunday.

But the teams on the right side of the bubble are okay. It’s the lack of quality teams on the wrong side of the bubble that make this group of teams one of the worst. You do have teams like Stanford and NC State that still have some opportunities to work their way into the field. There is Utah State, who just has to keep winning and hope that it accumulates enough wins in a weak Mountain West to catch the committee’s eye.

But try as I might to find a quality mid-major with a decent resume, one does not appear to be there. UNC-Greensboro could be that team with another good win or two.

In the end, what all this means is that we may not have much drama on the bottom of the bubble in four weeks.

Brackets will be posted every Monday and Friday until Selection Sunday. Follow me on twitter @tkbrackets. I will give you updates all season long as we make our way to Atlanta for the Final Four.