NCAA Tournament Projections As of Feb. 21

This year’s selection committee has revealed their top-16 seeds, and I thought I’d spend a few minutes to share my observations.

• This committee seems to value NET rankings more than committees of the past. Of the top-13 teams ranked in the NET, 12 of them landed on the top-13 lines, with only Houston being left out.

• The teams who had the poorer predictive metrics were not given credit for their outstanding resumes. Case in point: Wisconsin and Providence. It was not a shock to see the Friars on the four-line but the 15th overall seed was lower than most expected. Wisconsin was the most puzzling seeding of the 16, as the Badgers certainly had the resume of a three-seed but were placed on the four-line by the committee.

• Texas Tech’s outstanding resume and sweep of Baylor was not rewarded by the committee. In fact, placing the Red Raiders as the 10-seed, five spots below Baylor, seemed a bit puzzling. They certainly had a more impressive resume than Duke and Villanova, who were seeded ahead of them.

• Speaking of Duke, the Blue Devils garnered the 8th overall seed, despite having only two wins against the top-25 teams in the NET. But those wins came against #1 Gonzaga and #3 Kentucky, which was enough for Duke to overcome a very average resume.

• It can be a bit dangerous reading too much into what the committee did. After all, this is a snapshot in time and these rankings can change quickly. But I do think it’s important to take notice of these decisions and keep them in the back of your mind as Selection Sunday grows nearer.

Don’t forget in less than two weeks our Mock Selection Committee convenes to put together the field of 68. And you can join in and watch all the proceedings from March 3-6. Follow us on Twitter, and we will post all the links so that you can register for this exciting event.

LAST FOUR IN: San Diego State, SMU, Michigan, Memphis
FIRST FOUR OUT: Loyola, BYU, Indiana, Florida
NEXT FOUR OUT: Belmont, VCU, Kansas State, Oregon

BIG 12: 6
SEC: 6
ACC: 5
MW: 4
WCC: 3
PAC-12: 3
AAC: 3