NCAA Tournament Projections As of February 13

Once again, it’s time for the NCAA Selection Committee’s top 16 reveal. The show will take place on CBS on Feb. 18 at 12:30 p.m. EST. Ahead of the reveal, let’s look at how I see my bracket at this moment.

One Seeds: Alabama, Purdue, Houston, Kansas

Purdue has sat atop my bracket for most of the season, but with two losses in the last nine days, the Boilers have slipped back to No. 2 overall and Alabama has ascended to the top spot. Of the four teams on the one line, Houston is the toughest to handicap. Because of the level of competition in the AAC, the Cougars don’t get the number of opportunities that the Power Five gets. But with the top NET ranking and elite Quad success, Houston deserves a spot here. Kansas has the most wins in Q1 and Q2 (14 combined) of any team in the country.

Two Seeds: Texas, Arizona, Baylor, UCLA

Texas has seven Top 25 wins, the most in the country. Their non-conference strength of schedule (SOS) is the only thing holding them back from a one seed at this point. Arizona’s stunning loss to Stanford dropped them off the one line, but they’re still ahead of conference-mate UCLA, who is held back by the fact that they have no Top 25 wins.

Three Seeds: Tennessee, Xavier, Marquette, Virginia

Two weeks ago, Tennessee was challenging for a one seed. But the Vols are struggling, and their thin resume drops them to a three. Big East foes Xavier and Marquette are both on the three line, but Xavier gains a slight edge by playing the last couple of weeks without star Zach Freemantle, who is expected back soon. ACC leader Virginia rounds this group out with a 19-4 record.

Four Seeds: Gonzaga, Kansas State, Iowa State, Indiana

Gonzaga has the same challenges as Houston, but the Zags have steadied the ship and are now challenging for a spot on the three line. Kansas State and Iowa State have both hit a slump, but because of the strength of the Big 12 they sit comfortably on the four line. No team has shot up the bracket as quickly as Indiana. The Hoosiers have won eight of nine — and if you do that in the powerful Big Ten then you get placed into a preferred seed line.

Don’t forget that this Friday night the 2023 Mock Selection Committee will be selecting our top 16 teams ahead of the NCAA’s announcement on Saturday. Tune into our YouTube channel at 7 p.m. EST and watch the selection live. Also make sure to follow this group of top-notch bracketologists on Twitter.


LAST FOUR IN: Kentucky, New Mexico, USC, Memphis
FIRST FOUR OUT:  North Carolina, Clemson, Arizona State, Seton Hall
NEXT FOUR OUT: Oregon, Virginia Tech, Utah, Wake Forest

Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
ACC: 5
Big East: 5
MW: 4
Pac-12: 3
AAC: 2
WCC: 2