NCAA Tournament Projections As of February 20

On Saturday, the NCAA Selection Committee revealed the current top-16 teams. I’m going to break down their initial seeding and share my thoughts.

One-Seeds: Alabama, Houston, Purdue, Kansas

I had the same teams on the one-line, just in a different order. The committee valued Houston’s top NET ranking and their No. 1 predictive metrics. Considering Kansas’ tremendous resume, I was surprised by them only being ranked fourth.

Two-Seeds: Texas, Arizona, Baylor, UCLA

Again, no issues here with the teams on the line, just the order. I thought the resume of Baylor’s was enough to have them at the top of the line.

Three-Seeds: Tennessee, Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas State

Tennessee and Virginia match up with my rankings. Iowa State was a borderline three-seed for me, so I have no real issue there — but Kansas State was mis-seeded. The Wildcats have a good resume but that non-conference strength of schedule concerns me when comparing them to the teams below them. In my mind, K-State should be on the bottom of the four-line.

Four-Seeds: Indiana, Marquette, Gonzaga, Xavier

No question that the biggest miss by the committee was the omission of UConn. It’s hard to imagine how the Huskies could be seeded four spots below Indiana. I also felt strongly that Marquette and Gonzaga belonged on the three-line.

There are still plenty of big games to be played over the next three weeks before Selection Sunday. While you might see a reshuffling of this order, history tells us that most of these programs will remain somewhere on these four lines.

Remember, it’s now that time of the year to look for my brackets on Monday and Friday here at Stadium. Make sure and follow me on Twitter @tkbrackets to get reaction to the college basketball season!

LAST FOUR IN: West Virginia, USC, Wisconsin, Mississippi State
FIRST FOUR OUT:  Utah State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Michigan
NEXT FOUR OUT: Seton Hall, New Mexico, Penn State, North Texas

Big Ten: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
ACC: 5
Big East: 5
MW: 3
Pac-12: 3
WCC: 2
AAC: 2