NCAA Tournament Projections: These Are the Top 16 Teams Right Now

    Ranking teems seeded No. 1-4 right now.

    February 12, 2024

    As they have done for several years, the NCAA Selection Committee is giving us a peek into their thought process on this year’s tournament field. On Saturday morning, the committee will reveal their current top 16 teams. The live broadcast will air on CBS at 12:30 p.m. ET. So today, let’s take a look at where the top 16 stands in our bracket.



    One Seeds: Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona

    These four picks are straightforward, although I guess there could be debates over two things: the No. 1 overall seed, and if anyone can challenge Arizona for the final No. 1 seed. Purdue’s résumé is too strong to move UConn to the overall one seed right now. And recent losses by both North Carolina and Tennessee have cemented Arizona on the one line. One other note: I don’t feel Arizona is given enough love on most brackets. The Wildcats have seven Q1 wins, with four of them being top-25 wins.

    Two seeds: North Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Marquette

    This line also has no surprises. The only items up for debate are the order in which we place these teams. I considered both Kansas and Marquette, but gave the nod to KU due to their stronger metrics and a slightly better résumé. Those factors overcame the fact that Marquette had a win over the Jayhawks earlier this season.

    Three seeds: Iowa State, Baylor, Wisconsin, Alabama

    Here’s where things become more difficult. Iowa State has shot up the board with some high-caliber wins that the Big 12 affords them. The Cyclones need to garner a road win or two, which would strengthen their résumé and potentially offset their bad non-conference strength of schedule. Baylor has a sneaky-good résumé and is solidly in the three spot despite their loss to Kansas. Wisconsin and Alabama are in totally different states of mind. The Badgers have gone from a possible challenge to the one line to almost slipping to a four seed. After starting slowly, Alabama has been on the move. With their excellent computer numbers, it’s hard not to consider them for a move up each week.

    Four seeds: Duke, Illinois, Auburn, Dayton

    I would listen to anyone who says I have these four in the wrong order. It’s very difficult to place these teams, as their résumés are very close to one another. It will all depend on what the committee values the most. The toughest call was whether Clemson or South Carolina surpassed Dayton. Clemson has two top-10 wins and some depth to their résumé. However, they have a bad loss and several other losses to teams who aren’t in the field. Their computer numbers do not match the Flyers’. South Carolina has put together a 21-3 season and has a decent résumé with a claim to a top-16 seed, but some things will hold them back. The first is a terrible non-conference schedule, and the second is average computer numbers. You can project some things in the bracket by reviewing what committees have done in the past, and the committee has never included a team with a 40+ NET ranking in their reveal. As a result, I feel the Gamecocks will be a solid five seed.


    LAST FOUR IN: Nevada, TCU, Florida, Texas
    FIRST FOUR OUT: Providence, Gonzaga, Memphis, Ole Miss
    NEXT FOUR OUT: Saint John’s, Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Colorado

    CONFERENCES WITH MULTIPLE BIDS
    Big 12: 10
    SEC: 8
    Big Ten: 6
    MW: 6
    Big East: 4
    ACC:
    4
    Pac-12: 3
    AAC: 2


    Would you like a sneak peek at what the top 16 reveal may look like? Then join the 2024 Mock Selection Committee with a special get-together on Friday night at 8 p.m. ET. The committee will follow all the NCAA Selection Committees rules and procedures in choosing the top 16. Join us live on our YouTube channel and watch the proceedings.

    Follow me on Twitter/X @tkbrackets. I will give an updated top 16 on Saturday morning. And beginning next week, we will give you two brackets a week from now until Selection Sunday.

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