Brett McMurphy’s College Football Preseason Top 25

The wait is almost over. Just a few more days.

On Aug. 19 at noon ET, the Associated Press preseason Top 25 poll will be released. And then, only five days later, the college football season kicks off with Florida and Miami meeting in Orlando and later that night, Arizona at Hawaii — aloha!

As my loyal readers and family members are aware, I am among the voters in the AP Poll. If you’re not familiar with my weekly rankings from past seasons, I’ll cut to the chase: I really, really don’t hate your team, it just appears that way.

While we wait for the release of the AP preseason poll, here’s my official AP ballot. Once the season kicks into full swing on Labor Day weekend, I’ll provide my AP ballot each week here at WatchStadium.com and my Twitter feed for your enjoyment and/or disgust.

The odds to win the College Football Playoff for each team are as of Monday and provided by the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, while the projected win totals for each program are provided by the Action Network’s Collin Wilson.

Onto my AP preseason ballot, which, by the way, is not how I predict the teams will finish, but how I rank the teams entering the season.

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1. Clemson
Last year: 15-0 (8-0 ACC)
Toughest non-conference game: Home vs. Texas A&M, Sept. 7
Toughest conference game: At Syracuse, Sept. 14
Projected win total: 11.98
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 9-to-4

After already getting the seal of approval/kiss of death as the nation’s top-ranked team in the Coaches Poll last week, Clemson should also be ranked No. 1 by the Associated Press. Congrats, Clemson! However, that AP preseason No. 1 ranking hasn’t been such a great omen. In the past 15 years, only two AP preseason No. 1 ranked teams went on to win the national title (Alabama in 2017 and USC in ’04). Can Clemson become the first repeat national champion since Alabama in 2011-12? The Tigers certainly have the star power to do so, especially on offense with quarterback Trevor Lawrence, running back Travis Etienne and wide receiver Justyn Ross. The defense lost a ton of talent to the NFL, but coach Dabo Swinney is confident the Tigers won’t miss a beat.

2. Georgia
Last year: 11-3 (7-1 SEC)
Toughest non-conference game: Home vs. Notre Dame, Sept. 21
Toughest conference game: Florida in Jacksonville, Nov. 2
Projected win total: 10.82
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 6-to-1

For the past two seasons, Georgia has been the Beast of the (SEC) East and could have — should have? — defeated Alabama. First, in the 2018 national championship (2nd-and-26 TD pass in OT) and then the 2018 SEC title game (really, a fake punt?). Now the Bulldogs enter year four under coach Kirby Smart with the talent and schedule to return to the College Football Playoff and, yes, finally defeat their nemesis if they meet for the SEC title or in the playoff. Expect a big year from quarterback Jake Fromm and running back D’Andre Swift, who will both benefit from a veteran offensive line. Also, eight starters return from last year’s second-best SEC defense (passing and total defense).

3. Alabama
Last year: 14-1 (8-0 SEC)
Toughest non-conference game: Duke in Atlanta, Aug. 31
Toughest conference game: Home vs. LSU, Nov. 9
Projected win total: 11.43
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 5-to-2

Five years into the College Football Playoff and only Alabama has qualified every season. Even though the names have changed — the coaching staff has been a revolving door the past few years — expect for Nick Saban and the Tide to roll to an unprecedented sixth consecutive College Football Playoff appearance. Coming off last year’s humiliating loss to Clemson in the title game, Alabama won’t be lacking motivation. The biggest key will be the performance of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Last year, Tagovailoa was unstoppable in the regular season (36 touchdown passes and two interceptions), but in the Tide’s final three games (SEC title game and the College Football Playoff), he had seven touchdowns and four interceptions.

4. Oklahoma
Last year: 12-2 (8-1 Big 12)
Toughest non-conference game: At UCLA, Sept. 14
Toughest conference game: Texas in Dallas, Oct. 12
Projected win total: 10.89
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 14-to-1

Lincoln Riley is on a serious roll. In Riley’s two years as a head coach: two Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks, two Big 12 titles and two College Football Playoff trips. Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts will try to help make Riley 3-for-3 in all three categories. While Hurts hasn’t been officially named OU’s starting quarterback, it’s only a formality. Riley said Hurts is a “better athlete than (2017 Heisman winner) Baker (Mayfield), but a different kind of athlete than (2018 Heisman winner) Kyler.” Hurts will get his chance to prove at OU that he’s more than a runner. Ironically, in Hurts’ freshman season at Alabama, Hurts attempted 382 passes — or five more than Murray in his Heisman-winning campaign last year. With Riley and Hurts, the Sooners’ offense should be fine. The biggest change will be on defense under new coordinator Alex Grinch, who takes over a unit with 10 returning starters.

5. Michigan
Last year: 10-3 (8-1 Big Ten)
Toughest non-conference game: Home vs. Notre Dame, Oct. 26
Toughest conference game: Home vs. Ohio State, Nov. 30
Projected win total: 10.14
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 14-to-1

If you see any ‘W.W.J.D.’ bracelets in Ann Arbor this fall, they may have an additional meaning — What Will Josh Do? More specifically, what will Josh Gattis be allowed to do as coach Jim Harbaugh’s new offensive coordinator? Gattis comes to Michigan after a one-year stint as co-offensive coordinator at Alabama and is expected to revive the Wolverines’ offense with a spread attack featuring quarterback Shea Patterson. The defense, which was actually a strength for the majority of last season, was torched in UM’s final two games against Ohio State and Florida. Five starters return from last year’s unit that ranked second nationally in total defense and eighth in yards per play. While Gattis’ success as offensive coordinator will be a major storyline, the biggest question for Michigan is ‘W.W.J.B.O.S.’ — When Will Jim Beat Ohio State?

6. Ohio State
Last year: 13-1 (8-1 Big Ten)
Toughest non-conference game: Home vs. Cincinnati, Sept. 7
Toughest conference game: At Michigan, Nov. 30
Projected win total: 9.72
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 16-to-1

Cue the clichéd headlines: It’s a New Day at Ohio State! Ryan Day replaces Urban Meyer as the Buckeyes’ coach, but there is nothing new about the expectations. It’s more of the same old, same old as Ohio State seeks a third consecutive Big Ten title and eighth consecutive win against Michigan. Day’s offense will feature Georgia transfer quarterback Justin Fields and running back J.K. Dobbins. The Buckeyes also added former Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich as their passing game coordinator. With eight starters returning, the defense should be improved from last year’s unit that ranked 10th place in the Big Ten in total defense. The addition of new co-defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, who was at Michigan last year, should make an immediate impact.

7. LSU
Last year: 10-3 (5-3 SEC)
Toughest non-conference game: At Texas, Sept. 7
Toughest conference game: At Alabama, Nov. 9
Projected win total: 8.74
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 25-to-1

Will the real LSU offense please stand up? Was it the offense that averaged 363 yards per game in its first nine matchups last season or the offense that averaged 491 yards per game in its final four contests? With the addition of passing game coordinator Joe Brady, who was an offensive assistant for the past two years with the New Orleans Saints, the Tigers are hoping for the latter in 2019, and quarterback Joe Burrow should be the biggest beneficiary in the Tigers’ new run-pass option attack. Awaiting LSU is another schedule littered with ranked opponents — half of LSU’s 12 regular season opponents this fall are projected to be ranked in the Top 25.

8. Notre Dame
Last year: 12-1
Toughest game: At Georgia, Sept. 21
Projected win total: 9.10
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 50-to-1

Since Notre Dame’s 4-8 debacle in 2016 where Brian Kelly took blame — “I was the absent professor,” he said — the Irish are 22-4 the past two seasons, including their first College Football Playoff berth. This year, the Irish look to continue that success as Kelly tries to become the first coach at Notre Dame with three consecutive double-digit win seasons since Lou Holtz (1991-93). Quarterback Ian Book is among eight returning starters on offense, while six starters are back from one of only three defenses that held each opponent to 30 points or less last season. Notre Dame also allowed only 347 yards per game, its lowest amount since the 2012 team that lost to Alabama in the BCS title game. Another playoff berth likely depends on Notre Dame’s success away from home with road games at Georgia, Michigan and Stanford.

9. Utah
Last year: 9-5 (6-3 Pac-12)
Toughest non-conference game: At BYU, Aug. 29
Toughest conference game: At Washington, Nov. 2
Projected win total: 9.54
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 50-to-1

True story: when I was with ESPN a few years ago, the Pac-12 coaches came through Bristol one summer for their interview circuit. Late in the afternoon, Utah Head Coach Kyle Whittingham asked me if ESPN had a gym so that he could go lift. So, it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise that Whittingham is psyched about the philosophy of new Utah OC Andy Ludwig, who wants a more physical presence. Leading the offense will be Zack Moss, who led the Utes in rushing last year, but was sidelined late in the season with a knee injury. Moss is back along with quarterbacks Tyler Huntley, who suffered a broken collarbone last year, and Jason Shelley, each who started last season. A year after winning their first Pac-12 South title, the Utes are seeking a Pac-12 championship and their first Rose Bowl or College Football Playoff berth. Just make sure Whittingham knows where the gym is located at the team’s hotel.

10. Florida
Last year: 10-3 (5-3 SEC)
Toughest non-conference game: Miami in Orlando, Aug. 24
Toughest conference game: Georgia in Jacksonville, Nov. 2
Projected win total: 8.86
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 50-to-1

Two weeks into last season, there were several Florida insiders that were legitimately questioning if the Gators would be able to muster six wins for bowl eligibility. Even coach Dan Mullen questioned the Gators’ toughness after UF’s loss to Kentucky. Then a funny thing happened: the Gators won and won and won, and ended up with 10 victories, including a 41-15 rout of Michigan in the Peach Bowl. Mullen had worked his magic, especially on offense where the Gators averaged 426 yards per game — after eight consecutive years of never averaging more than 370 yards per game. Quarterback Feleipe Franks is among five returning starters on offense and looking to improve on an up-and-down season a year ago. Another double-digit win season is possible for UF, especially with a schedule featuring not one, but two FCS opponents.

11. Oregon
Last year: 9-4 (5-4 Pac-12)
Toughest non-conference game: Auburn in Arlington, Aug. 31
Toughest conference game: At Washington, Oct. 19
Projected win total: 7.74
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 50-to-1

Oregon returns nearly its entire starting lineup from last season, but most importantly, NFL prospect Justin Herbert is back behind center. How important is Herbert to Oregon? In the past two seasons with Herbert starting, Oregon averaged 40.3 points per game. In five games without Herbert, who had a broken collarbone in 2017, the Ducks averaged only 15 points per game. If Oregon is to return to the College Football Playoff, the Ducks must improve on the road. They have a neutral site opener vs. Auburn in Arlington, Texas, and Pac-12 road games at Stanford, Washington, USC and Arizona State. Based on the past three seasons, that road slate could prove disastrous. Since 2016, the Ducks have been terrific at home (15-5), but terrible on the road (4-12).

12. Texas A&M
Last year: 9-4 (5-3 SEC)
Toughest non-conference game: At Clemson, Sept. 7
Toughest conference game: Home vs. Alabama, Oct. 12
Projected win total: 7.09
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 200-to-1

If (when) Clemson and Alabama meet again in the College Football Playoff this season, Jimbo Fisher should have a great deal of insight on the game. Fisher’s Aggies, along with South Carolina, are the nation’s only teams with the opportunity to play last year’s national title finalists. But, wait there’s more! Besides playing at Clemson and hosting Alabama, Texas A&M also has home games against Auburn and Mississippi State and finishes the year with consecutive road games at Georgia (first trip to Athens since 1980) and LSU. With such a daunting schedule, Texas A&M is projected to be an underdog in at least four games — remember that Fisher had an 0-4 record as the ‘dog with Texas A&M last year.

13. Auburn
Last year: 8-5 (3-5 SEC)
Toughest non-conference game: Oregon in Arlington, Aug. 31
Toughest conference game: Home vs. Alabama, Nov. 30
Projected win total: 7.07
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 50-to-1

In last year’s Music City Bowl vs. Purdue, Gus Malzahn returned to his play-calling duties for the first time in two seasons and the result was an impressive 63-14 victory. Ironically, that 49-point margin equaled one point for every million dollars of Malzahn’s seven-year contract. Malzahn will continue to call plays this fall for either Bo Nix or Joey Gatewood, who are battling to replace quarterback Jarrett Stidham. The bowl blowout cooled Malzahn’s hot seat chatter, but Auburn must improve in league play (only 17-15 the past four seasons). The defense will be a strength with seven returning starters, but the schedule is brutal: the opener with Oregon in Arlington, road games at Texas A&M, LSU and Florida and home games against Georgia and Alabama.

14. Texas
Last year: 10-4 (7-2 Big 12)
Toughest non-conference game: Home vs. LSU, Sept. 7
Toughest conference game: Oklahoma in Dallas, Oct. 12
Projected win total: 6.11
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 25-to-1

When Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger hollered, “Longhorn Nation, wee’rre back!” after the Sugar Bowl victory against Georgia last season, the debate began — is Texas really back? The Longhorns might be the most polarizing team in college football this season. They’ve been projected to finish as high as 5th nationally (by Sports Illustrated) and as low as eighth in the Big 12 (by the Action Network’s Collin Wilson). Texas returns only eight starters and must replace its leading rusher, leading wide receiver, three starters on the offensive line and nearly its entire defense. What about these wildly differing projections? As Herman would say, “OK. Cool. Hook Em!”

15. Penn State
Last year: 9-4 (6-3 Big Ten)
Toughest non-conference game: Home vs. Pitt, Sept. 14
Toughest conference game: At Ohio State, Nov. 23
Projected win total: 7.75
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 100-to-1

Since arriving from Vanderbilt, coach James Franklin has guided Penn State to five consecutive bowl trips and the Nittany Lions have cracked the Top 10 at some point in each of the past three seasons. Despite all of that momentum, this off-season was chaotic, to say the least. More than a dozen players left via the NCAA’s Transfer Portal, including Tommy Stevens, who was originally the favorite to replace Trace McSorley, the school’s all-time leading passer and winningest quarterback. Penn State does return six starters each on offense and defense, but it will be fascinating to see how this season turns out. The schedule is set up for the Nittany Lions to start 5-0, but in the second half of the year they take on Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan.

16. Mississippi State
Last year: 8-5 (4-4 SEC)
Toughest non-conference game: Home vs. Kansas State, Sept. 14
Toughest conference game: Home vs. Alabama, Nov. 16
Projected win total: 9.06
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 300-to-1

Joe Moorhead’s success in his debut season in Starkville was pretty clear cut: when scoring at least 10 points, the Bulldogs were 8-1 compared with 0-4 when held below 10 points. Those losses were to teams that all finished in the Top 12 of the final AP rankings (Alabama, LSU, Florida and Kentucky). In year two under Moorhead, the Bulldogs are hoping for more consistency, but the biggest question mark is the starting quarterback battle between Keytaon Thompson and Tommy Stevens. Thompson was expected to take over for Nick Fitzgerald this fall, until Stevens transferred to MSU from Penn State. At Penn State, Stevens played under Moorhead, then the Nittany Lions’ offensive coordinator. The Bulldogs’ defense, last year’s SEC leader in total and scoring defense, should be strong again, but returns only three starters.

17. Michigan State
Last year: 7-6 (5-4 Big Ten)
Toughest non-conference game: Home vs. Arizona State, Sept. 14
Toughest conference game: At Michigan, Nov. 16
Projected win total: 7.41
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 100-to-1

Since 2011, Michigan State has racked up four consecutive seasons of at least 10 wins in the odd years, so it’s no shock that the Spartans are eagerly looking forward to 2019, especially since they return 17 starters, including quarterback Brian Lewerke. Coach Mark Dantonio has shuffled his staff, in hopes of resuscitating an offense that was held to a total of 32 points in its final four games — only six points on three separate occasions and a whopping 14-point outburst against woeful Rutgers. The offense, under new coordinator Brad Salem, looks to be much more up-tempo in 2019.

18. Iowa State
Last year: 8-5 (6-3 Big 12)
Toughest non-conference game: Home vs. Iowa, Sept. 14
Toughest conference game: At Oklahoma, Nov. 9
Projected win total: 7.75
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 200-to-1

1978 is the last time that Iowa State was ranked in the preseason AP Poll, but that streak should come to a halt on Aug. 19. That’s because coach Matt Campbell has done a masterful job in building the Cyclones’ program. From 2014-16, Iowa State won a total of eight games — the same number of games Campbell’s ’Clones have won in each of the past two seasons. Iowa State must replace running back David Montgomery and wide receiver Hakeem Butler, but it does return quarterback Brock Purdy, who was sixth nationally in passing efficiency last year as a freshman, and all five starters on the offensive line. The Cyclones will have a legitimate shot at finishing ranked in the final AP Poll for the first time since 2000.

19. Washington
Last year: 10-4 (7-2 Pac-12)
Toughest non-conference game: At BYU, Sept. 21
Toughest conference game: Home vs. Oregon, Oct. 19
Projected win total: 8.32
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 50-to-1

In the past three seasons, Washington has been among college football’s winningest programs, one of only six with at least 10 wins every year. A big reason for the Huskies’ success — besides head coach Chris Petersen — has been their defense. In each of the past four years, Washington has led the Pac-12 in total defense and scoring defense. It could be a challenge to continue those streaks this season as the Huskies return only two defensive starters. Offensively, UW returns eight starters, but must replace talented quarterback Jake Browning. Georgia transfer Jacob Eason was the favorite to replace Browning, but he’s currently locked in a battle with sophomore Jake Haener. Even with all their losses on defense, the Huskies are still projected to be favored in every regular season game this season as they eye their third Pac-12 crown in the past four years.

20. Wisconsin
Last year: 8-5 (5-4 Big Ten)
Toughest non-conference game: At South Florida, Aug. 30
Toughest conference game: At Ohio State, Oct. 26
Projected win total: 8.41
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 200-to-1

Last season was a memorable one for Wisconsin, but for all the wrong reasons. The Badgers won fewer than 10 games for the first time since 2013 and became only the third team in the past 10 years to start the season ranked in the top five of the AP preseason poll (No. 4) and finish the year unranked. This season is guaranteed to be different in at least one way — the Badgers will not start anywhere near the top 10. Whether they finish there will depend largely on running back Jonathan Taylor and their quarterback play. Taylor led the nation in rushing last season with nearly 2,200 yards and hopes to make a run at the Heisman. The schedule is set up so that the Badgers can get off to a fast start — opening at South Florida, followed by five consecutive home games – and quickly put last year’s disappointments behind them.

21. Missouri
Last year: 8-5 (4-4 SEC)
Toughest non-conference game: Home vs. West Virginia, Sept. 7
Toughest conference game: at Georgia, Nov. 9
Projected win total: 9.47
Odds to win College Football Playoff: N/A

After appealing their NCAA bowl ban, the Tigers continue to wait … and wait … and wait on a decision from the NCAA’s Committee on Infractions. If the ban isn’t overturned, Mizzou would be ineligible for the SEC title and the postseason. Either way, Missouri could be one of the nation’s surprise teams with Clemson transfer Kelly Bryant at quarterback. Bryant, who led Clemson to the 2018 College Football Playoff, is eager to prove what he can do in the Show-Me State. The Tigers also have to show they can win without the offense having to put up six touchdowns per game. Under coach Barry Odom, Missouri has lost 19 of 23 games when it fails to score 40 points.

22. Nebraska
Last year: 4-8 (3-6 Big Ten)
Toughest non-conference game: at Colorado, Sept. 7
Toughest conference game: Home vs. Ohio State, Sept. 28
Projected win total: 7.22
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 50-to-1

Even though Nebraska was only 4-8 last season, the Cornhuskers are the trendy pick to win the Big Ten West. A lot has to do with coach Scott Frost in year two and the obvious, but unfair, comparison to what he did in year two at UCF (from 6-7 to 13-0), and quarterback Adrian Martinez. As a freshman last year, Martinez was second in the Big Ten in total offense, accounting for 295 yards per game. The Cornhuskers also scored at least 28 points in six regular season Big Ten games, their most since 2012. Nebraska also has a favorable schedule with all of its toughest opponents (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Iowa) coming to Lincoln. Keep this stat in mind — going back to Frost’s days with UCF, his teams have won their last 14 conference games when favored.

23. Northwestern
Last year: 9-5 (8-1 Big Ten)
Toughest non-conference game: at Stanford, Aug. 31
Toughest conference game: Home vs. Ohio State, Oct. 18
Projected win total: 5.45
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 1,000-to-1

Northwestern consistently gets overlooked and undervalued, especially in the Big Ten. During the past two seasons, Northwestern is 15-3 in conference play, second only to Ohio State. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald has been one of the most dangerous coaches as an underdog, with the Wildcats pulling off the upset seven times in their last eight games as a Big Ten underdog. This year they’ll have to continue to prove the naysayers wrong with a new quarterback. Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson and TJ Green, last year’s back-up, are in a battle to replace Clayton Thorson. Fitzgerald has built the foundation for the Wildcats and seeks to become the first coach in school history to record five consecutive winning seasons in Evanston.

24. Memphis
Last year: 8-6 (5-3 American)
Toughest non-conference game: Home vs. Ole Miss, Aug. 31
Toughest conference game: Home vs. Cincinnati, Nov. 29
Projected win total: 10.88
Odds to win College Football Playoff: N/A

Entering this fall, there are seven teams that are projected to be favored in every regular season game. The first six are the usual suspects: Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Michigan and Washington. The seventh? The Memphis Tigers. Yes, Memphis. The Tigers return 15 starters, most notably quarterback Brady White, the former Arizona State transfer. Last year, White threw 26 touchdown passes as the Tigers played — and lost — in a second consecutive AAC title game. Memphis opens the season at home against Ole Miss, which should reveal if the Tigers are New Year’s Six bowl contenders or pretenders. Memphis needs to show improvement on the defensive side of the ball after allowing at least 31 points in eight of their final 11 games last season.

25. Army
Last year: 11-2
Toughest game: At Michigan, Sept. 7
Projected win total: 9.53 (Army plays 13 games)
Odds to win College Football Playoff: 2,000-to-1

When we last left Army, the Black Knights were blitzing Houston 70-14 in the Armed Forces Bowl and finished the season ranked No. 19, their first AP ranking since 1996. This season, Army wants to earn its first AP preseason ranking in 60 years since the 1959 team debuted at No. 5. Even if Army doesn’t make the preseason rankings, the Black Knights certainly will crack the Top 25 if they upset Michigan on Sept. 7. Quarterback Kelvin Hopkins Jr., who became the first player in school history to record more than 1,000 yards rushing (1,017) and passing (1,026) in the same season, returns on offense.

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