Giannis vs. Harden: The MVP Race by the Numbers

As the NBA regular season winds down, the MVP race has clearly come down to two players: Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rockets guard James Harden. Here’s how the two players stack up at this point in the season.

[RELATED: Jazz Head Coach Quin Snyder Has Developed a Defensive Juggernaut]

The first place to take stock of which way MVP voters will be leaning is the standings. The award typically goes to the best player on the best team, although there have been some exceptions in the past.

Here’s where each MVP’s team from the last five seasons finished relative to the rest of his conference.

Season MVP Winner Team Finish
2017-18 James Harden 1st in West
2016-17 Russell Westbrook 6th in West
2015-16 Stephen Curry 1st in West
2014-15 Stephen Curry 1st in West
2013-14 Kevin Durant 2nd in West

 

Aside from Westbrook’s historic season where he averaged a triple-double, the standings matter in the race. Whether they should or not is an argument for another time, but at the moment Antetokounmpo has the edge here. The Bucks are first in the East while the Rockets are currently fourth in the West.

Narratives also play a factor in the MVP race.

Westbrook was making history during his MVP season, which is why many disregarded his team’s performance to a certain extent. As for this year, Harden is attempting to repeat as MVP, but the Rockets haven’t been nearly as good as they were last year.

Not only have Antetokounmpo’s Bucks gone from seventh to first place in the East, but many NBA executives felt “The Greek Freak” was one of the league’s next big stars in the annual NBA GM Survey.

The narrative angle gives Antetokounmpo the edge.

Player Stats (through March 27) Points Assists Rebounds FG % 3-Point %
Giannis Antetokounmpo 27.3 6.0 12.6 58.1 24.2
James Harden 36.2 7.5 6.5 43.8 36.2

 

The raw numbers favor Harden, but not by much.

He’s scoring almost 10 more points per game and dishing out more assists, but Antetokounmpo is more efficient from the field and making a bigger impact on the glass. Harden shoots 3-pointers at a ridiculous rate and Antetokounmpo essentially avoids them, resulting in the discrepancy in that category.

Antetokounmpo’s supporting cast is loaded with shooting, so he doesn’t have to take those shots. Harden’s game is built largely around his ability to hit shots from anywhere, and he can break down defenses due to his shot.

Because of this, Harden’s 3-point numbers stand out. The edge goes slightly to Harden here because of overall volume, but this comparison is very close.

Player Stats (through March 27) Offensive Rating Defensive Rating Net Rating Assist % Assist/Turnover Ratio Usage % NBA.com’s Player Impact Estimate
Giannis Antetokounmpo 113.4 100.5 12.9 29.6 1.56 30.9 21.5
James Harden 114.9 110.6 4.3 39.5 1.48 39.5 19.7

 

The advanced numbers favor Antetokounmpo in every category except for offensive rating and assist percentage.

Usage rate is included to give context on what a player does for his team, but isn’t necessarily determining one player is better than the other. Antetokounmpo is miles ahead of Harden in defensive rating and net rating. Even though Harden is responsible for a larger percentage of his team’s assists, Antetokounmpo has the better assist/turnover ratio.

Among qualified players, Antetokounmpo’s Player Impact Estimate ranks first. Harden’s is tied for second with Anthony Davis. With the regular season coming to an end, it’s going to be nearly impossible for Harden to catch Antetokounmpo on advanced numbers.

The Greek Freak was already one of the league’s rising stars, but Bucks Head Coach Mike Budenholzer helped turn Antetokounmpo into the best player in the league. Now Antetokounmpo has the Bucks in the realm of title contention and his numbers have been spectacular.

That’s why it’s no surprise that Stadium NBA Insider Shams Charania has Antetokounmpo as his 2018-19 NBA MVP — a pick that I agree with.

MORE: March Madness 2019: NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Scores, Schedule, Dates, Times