Here’s How This Year’s Final Four Teams Stack Up to Years Past

The Final Four is set: No. 1 seed Virginia, No. 2 seed Michigan State, No. 3 seed Texas Tech and No. 5 seed Auburn.

It’ll be the Cavaliers matched up against the Tigers and the Spartans vs. the Red Raiders in Minneapolis.

How does each school stack up to the Final Four teams from years past?

Using the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency numbers available on kenpom.com, we graphed the Final Four field this year against the 68 teams that have made the Final Four since 2002. The efficiency from past Final Four teams are end-of-year numbers, while the efficiency data from this year’s field are current heading into Saturday’s matchups.

 

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What we found is that this year’s Final Four teams exist on the fringes of previous trends.

Texas Tech has the best adjusted defensive efficiency (84.1) of any Final Four team since 2002.

On the other hand, Auburn has the fourth-worst adjusted defensive efficiency (96.3) during that span.

Virginia and Michigan State aren’t statistical outliers like Texas Tech and Auburn, but they’re among the 20 most efficient Final Four teams from the last 18 seasons, when you analyze their high-level play on both ends of the floor.

The Cavaliers have the sixth-most efficient offense (123.0), adjusted for competition, among Final Four teams since 2002. The Spartans have an impressive combination of efficiency on offense (121.7) and defense (90.2), putting them in the shadow of the top-seeded ‘Hoos on our graph.

In order to add further context to where the offensive and defensive efficiency of these four teams compares historically, we took the average of all Final Four teams since 2002 and broke the graph into quadrants: above average on offense and defense, above average of offense but below average on defense, above average on defense but below average on offense, and below average on offense and defense.

Since 2002, teams that have advanced to the Final Four have had an average adjusted offensive efficiency of 117.7 and an average adjusted defensive efficiency of 90.9.

 

Virginia and Michigan State, the two lowest-seeded teams in this year’s Final Four, are above average on both ends of the floor compared to past Final Four teams since 2002. That’s a neighborhood where past champions like 2002 Maryland, 2004 UConn, 2005 North Carolina, 2006 Florida, 2010 Duke, 2012 Kentucky, 2013 Louisville and 2016 Villanova reside.

That’s eight of the last 17 national champions, plus national runners-up like 2005 Illinois, 2008 Memphis and 2017 Gonzaga that were certainly good enough to win a title.

Not surprisingly, Texas Tech falls in the quadrant for teams that are above average defensively but below average offensively, while Auburn is in the quadrant that’s diagonal from the Red Raiders that’s reserved for offensively-gifted teams that are lacking defensively.

None of this year’s Final Four teams fall in the below average/below average category.

That’s where past Cinderellas like 2006 George Mason, 2011 Butler, 2011 VCU, 2013 Wichita State and 2018 Loyola Chicago are located, plus unlikely power conference teams that made Final Four runs like the No. 10 seeded Syracuse Orange in 2016 and a pair of Michigan State’s Final Four teams (No. 5 seed in 2010, No. 7 seed in 2015).

Only two national champions – the Kemba Walker-led UConn Huskies in 2011 and the Carmelo Anthony-led Syracuse Orange in 2003 – were below average on offense and defense compared to the rest of the Final Four teams from 2002 to 2019.

Using this efficiency data, we can make comparisons for this year’s Final Four teams to teams from years past.

Strictly from an efficiency standpoint, not play style or roster composition, which teams do Virginia, Michigan State, Texas Tech and Auburn resemble?

Virginia (123.0 offensively, 88.8 defensively)

The Cavaliers have some separation from their predecessors given their elite level of offensive efficiency and annual level of restriction on the defensive end. Their closest comparison is a team that was ranked No. 4 in the preseason, finished at No. 2, earned a No. 1 seed, went 33-4 and had six future NBA players on its roster.

We’re talking about 2005 North Carolina. That’s how good Virginia is this year.

Comparison: 2005 North Carolina (122.5 offensively, 89.7 defensively)

Michigan State (121.7 offensively, 90.2 defensively)

This year’s Michigan State team is in close proximity on our graph to 2005 national champion North Carolina, 2012 national champion Kentucky, 2005 runner-up Illinois and 2016 national champion Villanova.

After a closer look, the Fighting Illini just edged out the Wildcats and Tar Heels as the Spartans’ closest comparison.

Comparison: 2005 Illinois (122.3 offensively, 89.6 defensively)

Texas Tech (113.6 offensively, 84.1 defensively)

There’s honestly not a great comparison for the Red Raiders given how strong they are defensively. Once again, they have the lowest adjusted defensive efficiency of any team that’s made the Final Four since 2002.

Comparison: 2003 Kansas (115.0 offensively, 86.4 defensively)

Auburn (121.0 offensively, 96.3 defensively)

An adjusted defensive efficiency of 96.0 is typically the baseline to make the Final Four and Auburn is a slight and rare exception. The Tigers are above average offensively compared to their Final Four predecessors, which is why they’re going to Minneapolis this weekend, but historically speaking, they’re not necessarily elite on that end of the floor, either.

Several teams have made the Final Four recently with similar efficiency numbers, like Kansas last year and Wisconsin in 2014.

Comparison: 2018 Kansas (120.9 offensively, 97.4 defensively)/2014 Wisconsin (122.0 offensively, 96.1 defensively)

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