How Ohio State Can Still Make the College Football Playoff

If you’ve checked Twitter since Saturday night, you may have seen the following sentiment echoed across the platform: Ohio State’s loss to Purdue is the 2018 version of the Buckeyes’ loss to Iowa last season.

Both losses came on the road to unranked teams by roughly 30 points.

The difference is that Iowa gave Ohio State its second loss of the season last fall; the Buckeyes’ loss to Purdue was their first this year. Purdue made OSU’s path to the College Football Playoff much more difficult, but they didn’t ruin it completely.

Here’s how Ohio State can still make the College Football Playoff.

The Buckeyes’ four remaining games are at home against Nebraska, then on the road against Michigan State and Maryland before a huge regular season finale in Columbus against Michigan, who is currently ranked fifth.

If Ohio State can win out, they’d win the Big Ten East, earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship and pick up one of the biggest wins of the college football season along the way against a Michigan team that is itself a serious playoff contender.

Northwestern currently leads the Big Ten West with a 4-1 conference record – a half-game ahead of Wisconsin, Iowa and Purdue. The Hawkeyes and Badgers currently represent the best chance for Ohio State to potentially pick up another win over a ranked opponent in the Big Ten Championship.

There are 10 teams currently ranked ahead of Ohio State in the AP Top 25 poll, so depending on where the Buckeyes appear in the playoff selection committee’s initial rankings, they’ll likely have to surpass at least seven teams by the end of the season to finish in the top four.

If Ohio State wins out, it could reasonably expect to jump at least five teams that are currently ranked ahead of the Buckeyes in the AP poll: Michigan, at least two SEC teams, Texas or Oklahoma, and UCF.

A Week 13 win over Michigan would give the Wolverines at least their second loss of the season and prevent them from winning the Big Ten East if Ohio State wins out.

Georgia and Florida play in Jacksonville in Week 9. The losing team will have two losses and lose its share of the lead in the SEC East.

Alabama and LSU play in Week 10 in a similar situation, where the winner will be the favorite to win the SEC West. It’s worth noting that even if LSU wins out, Alabama proved last year that there is a possible path to the playoff as an 11-1 team that misses out on playing for a conference championship.

Texas and Oklahoma both have one loss. If both schools win the rest of their regular season games and meet in the Big 12 Championship, one of the two will finish the season with two losses and no conference title to its name.

UCF is currently one spot ahead of Ohio State in the AP Top 25 poll. The committee has already shown they’d put a one-loss conference champion ahead of an undefeated UCF team. The Knights were ranked No. 12 in the committee’s final rankings last season.

This is where things get interesting. Ohio State can still reach the playoff but it may not control its own destiny, so it might need help across the country. Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame are all undefeated – meaning if each school wins out, it’s likely in the playoff, leaving just one playoff spot open if all three stay unbeaten.

If the Buckeyes go 12-1, they still might need Alabama to win the SEC Championship. A one-loss Crimson Tide team that finishes as either the SEC runner-up or as the second-place team in the SEC West (with its only loss coming against LSU) may very well still earn a top-four spot in the committee’s rankings.

A loss by Notre Dame could keep the Fighting Irish out of the playoff, without having the benefit of playing in a conference championship game. Ohio State would also stand to benefit from the Big 12 champion having two losses, since Texas, Oklahoma and West Virginia each have just one loss.

In the Pac-12, Washington State is the conference’s only hope for a one-loss conference champion, and they’re currently ranked three spots below Ohio State at No. 14.

Purdue’s upset of Ohio State doesn’t eliminate the Buckeyes from playoff contention, but it makes their path much harder. Just remember: They made an even bigger jump into the committee’s top four in 2014, after debuting at No. 16 in the committee’s first-ever rankings following a 35-21 loss at home early in the season to unranked Virginia Tech.