Michigan, Ohio State Play for Big Ten East Title With College Football Playoff Hopes on the Line

The biggest game of Week 13 this college football season is No. 4 Michigan at No. 10 Ohio State. Not only is it this weekend’s lone game between two power conference teams with only one loss each, but the winner will clinch the Big Ten East and stay in the College Football Playoff conversation, while the loser will be eliminated from playoff contention.

That’s a massive amount of added pressure to an already heated rivalry that always has national implications.

Let’s take a closer look at the statistical advantages each school could have in the game and break down what’s on the line in Columbus this Saturday.

What a win would mean for Michigan

A ‘W’ for Michigan would mark the Wolverines’ first win against their rival in seven years and their first time leaving Columbus victorious since 2000. While Michigan leads the all-time series 58-49-6, Ohio State has absolutely dominated the rivalry since the turn of the century — 15 wins to three.

The jubilation over beating Ohio State will immediately consume Michigan fans’ emotions, but their thoughts would soon move to how the Wolverines clinched the Big Ten East and will play in the Big Ten Championship Game for the first time. Michigan last won a share of the conference title in 2004, when it shared the honor with Iowa, and it last won the conference outright in 2003.

A win over Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship would likely clinch Michigan’s first-ever College Football Playoff appearance.

What a win would mean for Ohio State

Beating No. 4 Michigan at home could salvage what has been a topsy-turvy season for Ohio State. At face value, the Buckeyes’ 10-1 record entering Week 13 is fairly consistent with the status quo in Columbus, but remember that the season started with a three-game suspension for coach Urban Meyer and their one loss was a 49-20 throttling at Purdue. On top of that, none of their wins since October have been particularly convincing.

Despite having two running backs whom have rushed for at least 2,000 yards in their careers, Ohio State hasn’t been able to consistently run the ball from week to week. The Buckeyes’ defense, which has finished in the top 10 nationally in Football Outsiders’ S&P+ rankings in each of the last three seasons, is ranked No. 38 and has shown an affinity to giving up big plays.

But that being said, Ohio State can still clinch the Big Ten East — while knocking its rival out of the playoff conversation — with a victory on Saturday. A win in the Big Ten Championship would then put the Buckeyes at the forefront of the College Football Playoff discussion, given that they would be a 12-1 conference champion.

Their playoff candidacy depends on what happens in the other power conference championship games, but the season would still be considered a success with a playoff berth given that Ohio State nearly saw its Big Ten Championship hopes expire against Maryland in Week 12.

Michigan’s statistical advantages

  • Scoring defense (13.5 points allowed/game; 4th nationally)
  • Pass defense (123 yards allowed/game; 1st nationally)
  • Rush defense (111 yards allowed/game; 14th nationally)
  • Rush offense (219 yards/game)
  • Third-down conversions (50 percent)
  • Red zone conversions (86 percent to Ohio State’s 76 percent)
  • Time of possession (34:42 on average; 4th nationally)

 

Michigan has one of the elite defenses in college football, and if that unit shows up in Columbus, it could be a long afternoon for an Ohio State team that has been unable to consistently establish the run this season. The Wolverines rank 14th nationally in rushing yards allowed with just 111 per game, and they’re even better against the pass, limiting opponents to 123 yards through the air.

That’s the matchup that’s likely going to decide this game: Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins vs. Michigan’s defense. Haskins has thrown for at least 225 yards in every game and has passed for at least 400 yards in four of his last six games.

If Michigan can build a two-score lead, it has the rushing attack — led by running back Karan Higdon, but supplemented by fellow backs Chris Evans and Tru Wilson — to milk the clock and nurse a lead on the road. The Wolverines are converting on half of their third-down conversion attempts, and they’re scoring on nearly 90 trips to the red zone, so they’re able to extend drives that ultimately lead to points.

The last eight Michigan teams that have gone to the Horseshoe have left empty-handed, but there’s reason to believe this 2018 version of the Wolverines — with a top-five defense, dynamic quarterback, weapons at the skill positions and a kicker who was 6-of-6 on field goal attempts last week — could break the trend.

Ohio State’s statistical advantages

  • Scoring offense (41.6 points/game; 8th nationally)
  • Pass offense (359 yards/game)
  • Long plays from scrimmage (5th in 10+ yard plays; 21st in 20+ yard plays; 14th in 30+ yard plays)
  • Fourth-down conversions (63 percent; 23rd nationally)

 

Ohio State fans should feel encouraged about their team’s chances against Michigan considering that the game is in Columbus and the Buckeyes possess a top-10 offense.

While Michigan ranks second in the Football Outsiders’ S&P+ defensive rankings, the Buckeyes should be able to score in the mid-20s against the Wolverines, considering they’ve scored at least 20 points in every game this season and cracked 25 points against other elite defenses. Ohio State scored 26 points against Michigan State’s No. 4-ranked defense and 27 points against Penn State’s No. 12-ranked defense.

In the last eight Ohio State-Michigan matchups, the winner has scored at least 26 points, including four games in which the winner scored at least 40. With recent history and each team’s season averages as our guide, another game out of that mold would favor Ohio State’s offense that’s scoring more than 41 points per game.

Even if the Buckeyes are held to below their typical per-game passing and total offensive numbers, it may only take a handful of explosive plays to turn the tide in this Big Ten battle. Few offenses in the country are more explosive than Ohio State’s.

Plus, for as good as Michigan’s defense is this season, the Wolverines actually struggle at preventing opponents from scoring once they reach the red zone. They rank 128th out of 130 FBS teams with a 94.7 scoring percentage when their opponent is in the red zone.