NCAA Tournament Bracket Scouting Daily: Duke, UNC, Nevada & More

Eight ranked teams are in action Wednesday night, including the first of two blockbuster Tobacco Road showdowns between Duke and North Carolina. The Blue Devils have a one-game lead over the Tar Heels in the ACC (with Virginia a half-game behind Duke), and North Carolina will try to maintain its perfect road record in conference play when it arrives at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Here’s a look at how Wednesday’s biggest games could affect the NCAA Tournament resumes of the teams involved. The NCAA Tournament seed projections listed below are from Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections.

Rutgers at No. 10 Michigan State, 6:30 p.m. ET

Michigan State (21-5): 10-3 Quadrant 1, 3-2 Quadrant 2, 4-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament seed projection: No. 2 seed

Rutgers has its best team since it joined the Big Ten, but Michigan State can’t afford a loss Wednesday. The Scarlet Knights are ranked No. 111 in the NET, making this a Quadrant 3 game for the Spartans, representing the potential for their worst loss of the season.

Michigan State is currently on the outside of the chase for a No. 1 seed, but a No. 2 seed – the team’s latest NCAA Tournament seed projection – is well within reach, even with two regular season games remaining against Michigan. After Wednesday, the Spartans have three more Quadrant 1 games, plus a Quadrant 2 game, so they’ll be able to add to their national-best 10 Quadrant 1 victories in the coming weeks.

[RELATED: Stadium’s Latest NCAA Tournament Projections]

No. 17 Villanova at Georgetown, 6:30 p.m. ET

Villanova (20-6): 3-4 Quadrant 1, 8-2 Quadrant 2, 5-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament seed projection: No. 6 seed

Georgetown (15-10): 2-4 Quadrant 1, 4-4 Quadrant 2, 2-2 Quadrant 3, 7-0 Quadrant 4

Even though Villanova is alone in first place in the Big East entering Wednesday’s road game at Georgetown, the Wildcats are on pace to get their worst seed since 2013, when they were a No. 9 seed.

Georgetown’s No. 80 NET ranking means this game is just shy of falling under Quadrant 1 for Villanova. The Wildcats have two Quadrant 2 losses and taking a third Wednesday would mean Villanova would have lost three of its last four games, and it’d be at risk of not winning the Big East regular season title.

The Hoyas weren’t just left out of Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections but on the website Bracket Matrix, which publishes a composite bracket from numerous published bracket projections, Georgetown appears on just one individual’s bracket. In short, the Hoyas aren’t even on the bubble.

A win over Villanova would improve Georgetown’s Quadrant 1 record to 3-4 and it could leave the door open for the Hoyas to mount a late-season run toward an at-large bid. With a 5-7 conference record in a down season for the Big East, time is running out for Georgetown to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2015.

Florida at No. 13 LSU, 7 p.m. ET

Florida (14-11): 2-10 Quadrant 1, 4-0 Quadrant 2, 3-1 Quadrant 3, 5-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament seed projection: No. 12 seed (Last Four In)

LSU (21-4): 6-2 Quadrant 1, 7-2 Quadrant 2, 5-0 Quadrant 3, 3-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament seed projection: No. 4 seed

Florida’s NCAA Tournament hopes are hanging by a thread. The Gators were among the Last Four In in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections, but they’re just .500 in conference play and only three games over .500 overall. A 2-10 record in Quadrant 1 is less than optimal.

However, two remaining games against LSU and one against Kentucky gives Florida multiple opportunities for top-end wins.

LSU is just a half-game behind Tennessee in the SEC standings, and the Tigers will host the Volunteers Saturday, so a win Wednesday will preserve the anticipation of that matchup.

Florida’s No. 33 NET ranking makes this a Quadrant 2 game for LSU, but if the Gators can crack the top 30 by the season’s end, it’ll become a Quadrant 1 game for the Tigers.

No. 18 Louisville at Syracuse, 7 p.m. ET

Louisville (18-8): 4-7 Quadrant 1, 5-1 Quadrant 2, 5-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament seed projection: No. 4 seed

Syracuse (17-8): 2-4 Quadrant 1, 4-2 Quadrant 2, 7-2 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament seed projection: No. 9 seed

Almost every conversation in the ACC seems to come back to how each respective team performed against Duke. That being said, the Orange are just one of two teams that’s beaten the Blue Devils this season and they did so on the road, albeit without having to face Duke at full strength.

With just two Quadrant 1 wins and six total wins in Quadrant 1/2, Syracuse’s win over Duke is its “get out of jail free card” that is likely to keep the Orange on the right side of the bubble almost regardless of how they finish the season. Syracuse is a No. 9 seed in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections so without that win, the Orange would likely be on the right side of the bubble.

Louisville blew a 23-point lead at home in the second half against Duke last week and that’s a defeat that has the potential to shake a team’s psyche for weeks. In its next game, Louisville nearly blew a seven-point lead with 17 seconds left at home against Clemson, so the Cardinals aren’t playing like the team that was the No. 15 overall team in the Bracket Preview Show.

For the reasons stated above (Syracuse staying on the right side of the bubble with another quality win, Louisville shaking any lingering post-Duke hangover), this is a big game for both teams.

No. 8 North Carolina at No. 1 Duke, 9 p.m. ET

North Carolina (20-5): 5-5 Quadrant 1, 5-0 Quadrant 2, 6-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament seed projection: No. 2 seed

Duke (23-2): 7-1 Quadrant 1, 7-1 Quadrant 2, 5-0 Quadrant 3, 4-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament seed projection: No. 1 seed

North Carolina has spent the entire season hovering in college basketball’s second or third tier of teams, however one might define those groups. The Tar Heels debuted at No. 8 in the preseason AP Top 25 Poll and they’re currently ranked No. 8. They spent two weeks at No. 7 in the AP poll and they dropped as low as No. 15.

Wednesday is their chance to prove they belong in the sport’s upper tier.

North Carolina is just 5-5 in Quadrant 1 on the season and a road win at Duke would be the Tar Heels’ biggest victory of the season, eclipsing a home win over Gonzaga and a road win at Louisville. It would also put them in a three-way tie for first in the ACC with Duke and Virginia, and it leaves the door open for the Tar Heels to try to sneak their way into a No. 1 seed.

Duke is the No. 1 team in almost any rankings system you use, whether it’s the AP poll, NET rankings or kenpom.com. Even in a rivalry game against a talented North Carolina team, a borderline consensus No. 1 team should win that game at home. A victory Wednesday would improve the Blue Devils’ Quadrant 1 record to a ridiculous 8-1 on the season and maintain their trajectory as the No. 1 overall seed for the NCAA Tournament.

Butler at No. 11 Marquette, 9 p.m. ET

Butler (15-11): 1-6 Quadrant 1, 6-4 Quadrant 2, 5-1 Quadrant 3, 3-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament seed projection: First Four Out

Marquette (21-4): 7-3 Quadrant 1, 4-1 Quadrant 2, 3-0 Quadrant 3, 7-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament seed projection: No. 3 seed

Butler is second among teams in the First Four Out in Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament projections, which means a Quadrant 1 win at Marquette Wednesday could potentially bump them onto the right side of the bubble. A neutral-court win over fellow bubble team Florida is Butler’s only Quadrant 1 win and the Bulldogs only have two more opportunities for wins in that quadrant in the regular season: at Marquette and at Villanova.

As tall of a task as it sounds, Butler probably needs to win at least one of those games to stay in the at-large conversation.

Marquette, meanwhile, needs a win as it chases Villanova in the Big East standings. The Golden Eagles are a half-game back entering Wednesday’s games. Villanova plays at Georgetown, so a Marquette win and a Villanova loss could leave the Golden Eagles with sole possession of first place after Wednesday night.

A No. 2 seed is probably Marquette’s ceiling but even climbing from a projected No. 3 seed to a No. 2 seed could be a challenge given the strong resumes of other top teams and the down season the Big East is having. Winning home games their supposed to win, like Wednesday’s game against Butler, will keep the Golden Eagles as a projected top-four seed.

No. 6 Nevada at San Diego State, 11 p.m. ET

Nevada (24-1): 0-0 Quadrant 1, 9-0 Quadrant 2, 6-1 Quadrant 3, 9-0 Quadrant 4

Stadium’s latest NCAA Tournament seed projection: No. 4 seed

San Diego State is ranked No. 141 in the NET, which makes this a Quadrant 3 game for Nevada. A second Quadrant 3 loss could do irreconcilable damage to the Wolf Pack’s NCAA Tournament resume, given the lack of Quadrant 1 wins available in the Mountain West, so Nevada needs to extend its 10-game winning streak to maintain a projected top-four seed.

A road game at Utah State on Mar. 2 will finally provide the chance for Nevada to get a Quadrant 1 win.

MORE: 2019 NCAA Tournament Schedule, Dates, Locations