Predicting the 2019 Over/Under Win Totals for the ACC

It’s still too early to preview the 2019 college football season, but one thing that can be analyzed is the schedule for each team. Some teams get fortunate by having a soft non-conference schedule and/or getting to play the weaker teams on the other side of their division. Other programs might have a strong roster on paper, but will have a more challenging regular season schedule.

Those factors determine the over/under win totals for all the FBS teams. Once the numbers are released in Las Vegas, I like to analyze them and learn how the sports betting market views each team and their strength of schedule.

Each day this week, I’m going to break down the schedules by conference and predict the season win total that oddsmakers will set for each team. Remember that a lot can change between now and the spring with transfers, offseason injuries and players being dismissed from the team for off-the-field issues.

Keep in mind that the win total is based on the 12-game regular season and doesn’t include a conference title game or any bowl game.

Let’s start off with the ACC.

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ACC Atlantic

Clemson

2018 over/under win total: 11

2018 regular season record: 12-0

2019 outlook: Clemson is the favorite to win the National Championship, and they’ll be a favorite in all 12 of their games. The Tigers open on the first Thursday night of the season with a home date against Georgia Tech. Their toughest test will be a week later against Texas A&M, and their most challenging conference game is in Week 3 when they travel to face Syracuse. After that, it should be smooth sailing the rest of the way for Dabo Swinney’s team.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 11.5

Syracuse

2018 over/under win total: 5.5

2018 regular season record: 9-3

2019 outlook: Syracuse exceeded their betting market expectations last regular season and capped off their year with a bowl win over West Virginia. Syracuse opens this season with a road game against Liberty in what will be remembered as Hugh Freeze’s debut with the Flames. The Orange have the aforementioned matchup with Clemson in Week 3 and cross-division games against Pittsburgh and Duke. Syracuse will get more respect this offseason especially with Florida State and Louisville coming off down years.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 7

NC State

2018 over/under win total: 7.5

2018 regular season record: 9-3

2019 outlook: There will be some question marks for North Carolina State after losing quarterback Ryan Finley and a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Kelvin Harmon and Jakobi Meyers. The Wolfpack open with four non-conference games — with a contest at West Virginia being the most difficult. They play everyone in their division in the next six games and then close with cross-division clashes at Georgia Tech and against North Carolina. Expect the program to take a step back in 2019.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 6

Boston College

2018 over/under win total: 7

2018 regular season record: 7-5

2019 outlook: Boston College opens their season with one of their two cross-division games against Virginia Tech. They also have two of the weakest Power Five teams on their non-conference slate in Kansas and Rutgers. The Eagles then end the regular season with four of five games on the road. They play at Clemson and at Syracuse in back-to-back weeks, which is one of the toughest stretches an ACC team can endure in 2019. Star running back A.J. Dillon is back for the Eagles, but with Notre Dame and Pitt on their late November docket, Boston College’s schedule will get challenging as the season goes on.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 6.5

Florida State

2018 over/under win total: 8

2018 regular season record: 5-7

2019 outlook: Not only was Florida State one of the most disappointing teams in 2018, but their 36-year bowl streak came to an end. This offseason hasn’t brought any good news for the Seminoles, as quarterback Deondre Francois was dismissed from the program and Willie Taggart failed to sign a quarterback on National Signing Day. As for their schedule, it’s going to be a challenge again with notable matchups against Boise State and Florida catching my eye. Florida State is usually a national powerhouse, but I expect their win total to be much lower than usual unless they solve their quarterback conundrum.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 6.5

Wake Forest

2018 over/under win total: 6.5

2018 regular season record: 6-6

2019 outlook: Wake Forest’s schedule has a unique wrinkle in that they’ll play North Carolina in a “non-conference” game in addition to the ACC’s traditional eight-game conference format. So while it appears like the Demon Deacons have nine in-conference games, including cross-division matchups against Virginia Tech and Duke, it’s technically the standard eight. Wake Forest doesn’t have to leave their campus in October, as they have a bye and three straight home games in the middle of the season. November will be a tricky month with road dates at Virginia Tech, Clemson and Syracuse.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 5.5

Louisville

2018 over/under win total: 7

2018 regular season record: 2-10

2019 outlook: Louisville was the most disappointing team in 2018, falling short of their win total by five games and covering the spread only one time all season. Scott Satterfield is their new head coach, and he’ll be greeted with extremely low expectations in 2019. Unfortunately for him, the Cardinals will be tested right away with a Monday night matchup at home against Notre Dame. They also play Western Kentucky on a neutral site in Nashville and have a trip to Florida State in September. Louisville plays Virginia and Miami from the Coastal Division and finishes the season with a non-conference game against a reborn Kentucky program.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 3.5

ACC Atlantic

Pittsburgh

2018 over/under win total: 5

2018 regular season record: 7-5

2019 outlook: Pittsburgh unexpectedly won the ACC Coastal last year and went over their win total by two games. While the program seems to be going in the right direction, the schedule will likely prevent them from returning to the conference championship game. They play at Penn State and host UCF in September, and while they are fortunate to avoid Clemson, the Panthers have to face Syracuse and Boston College from the Atlantic. Making a bowl game is the expectation, but winning more than six might be asking a lot.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 6

Georgia Tech

2018 over/under win total: 6

2018 regular season record: 7-5

2019 outlook: There will be big changes for Georgia Tech as they move away from the triple-option offense after hiring former Temple Head Coach Geoff Collins. The Yellow Jackets face Clemson on the first Thursday of the season and finish September at Temple in a bit of a homecoming for Collins. Their other cross-division game is in November against North Carolina State. A week later Georgia Tech closes the season at home against Georgia.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 5.5

Virginia

2018 over/under win total: 5

2018 regular season record: 7-5

2019 outlook: Virginia has the chance to be this season’s ACC Coastal representative in the conference title game. Bronco Mendenhall has done a great coaching job and the program looks primed to take another step after a convincing Belk Bowl win over South Carolina. Outside a road game against Notre Dame, the schedule sets up nicely for the Cavaliers. They play Florida State and Louisville from the Atlantic, who both have plenty of question marks heading into 2019.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 6.5

Miami

2018 over/under win total: 9.5

2018 regular season record: 7-5

2019 outlook: Miami was a heavy favorite to win the division last season and severely fell short of expectations. Mark Richt retired and now Manny Diaz has the responsibility of trying to bring “The U” back to national relevancy. Miami will be challenged right away with a game against Florida in Orlando. Then they play at North Carolina in Mack Brown’s first home game in his second stint in Chapel Hill. Starting in Week 3, the schedule favors Miami with five straight home games (and a bye week mixed in). The Hurricanes play Florida State and Louisville as their cross-division games and only have to leave the state of Florida three times during the regular season. If they can find some consistency at quarterback, the ‘Canes will be a contender to make the conference title game.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 7.5

Virginia Tech

2018 over/under win total: 8

2018 regular season record: 6-6

2019 outlook: I wrote about Virginia Tech possibly having betting value next season after a down 2018 and the return of quarterback Josh Jackson from injury, but my opinion has changed in the last month now that Jackson plans to transfer. The Hokies open the season at Boston College and also host Wake Forest as their cross-division opponents. They have tough road games against Miami, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Virginia.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 6.5

Duke

2018 over/under win total: 6

2018 regular season record: 7-5

2019 outlook: Duke loses an NFL prospect in quarterback Daniel Jones and opens the season against a motivated Alabama team in Atlanta. Playing the Crimson Tide with extra time to prepare is always a daunting task, but having to face them months after being embarrassed in the National Championship Game is nerve-racking. Duke also hosts Notre Dame in November and draws Syracuse and Wake Forest from outside their division.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 5.5

North Carolina

2018 over/under win total: 5.5

2018 regular season record: 2-9

2019 outlook: Considering that North Carolina plays South Carolina, Miami and Clemson in three of their first five games, any honeymoon period for Mack Brown might be short lived. The Tar Heels close out their season with a rivalry showdown at North Carolina State. While UNC is hoping for a return to its “glory days,” don’t expect for that to happen just yet in 2019.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 4.5

MORE: ACC Football National Championship Odds: Favorite, Dark Horse & More