Predicting the 2019 Over/Under Win Totals for the Big 12

The Big 12 is the only conference in major college football that doesn’t have two divisions, so the conference’s 10 schools annually play each other once in a round robin format. The top two teams from the conference standings then meet in the Big 12 Championship.

This leads to a very straight forward schedule analysis with each school getting a chance to play one another. Each Big 12 team plays three non-conference games — leading to certain programs scheduling much tougher games than others.

Here are my over/under win total predictions for the Big 12.

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Oklahoma

2018 over/under win total: 10

2018 regular season record: 11-1

2019 outlook: Lincoln Riley has set a very high bar for the Sooners. They have produced the last two Heisman Trophy winners and have made the College Football Playoff in back-to-back seasons. They also added a quarterback with pedigree in Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts for the 2019 season. Oklahoma plays at UCLA in their most difficult non-conference game, but the highlight of their conference slate is the annual Red River Showdown at the Cotton Bowl against Texas in October and a trip to Oklahoma State in the final week of the regular season.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 10

Texas

2018 over/under win total: 9

2018 regular season record: 9-3

2019 outlook: Texas was one of the most hyped teams last summer and they ended up matching betting market expectations with a nine-win regular season. The Sugar Bowl win over Georgia will leave a positive impression in the minds of college football fans, which could lead to the Longhorns being overvalued based on the result of a single bowl game. Texas has the toughest non-conference game out of all the Big 12 teams with a Week 2 matchup against LSU. Two weeks later they open conference play with a home game against Oklahoma State. The Horns will be tested in all their road games, including trips to West Virginia, TCU, Iowa State and Baylor.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 8.5

Iowa State

2018 over/under win total: 6.5

2018 regular season record: 8-4

2019 outlook: Iowa State is heading in the right direction with head coach Matt Campbell, and they just missed the cut on teams that could offer betting value in 2019. I ultimately kept them off that list because they are losing running back David Montgomery and wide receiver Hakeem Butler to the NFL. Quarterback Brock Purdy will be back and he excelled during his true freshman season. Iowa State opens with Northern Iowa and then gets a quick bye week before their huge rivalry game against Iowa. The toughest stretch in conference play is facing Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas in three straight games, but a second bye week between the matchups with the Oklahoma schools makes it more manageable.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 7.5

West Virginia

2018 over/under win total: 7.5

2018 regular season record: 8-3

2019 outlook: There will be a lot of change at West Virginia this season as quarterback Will Grier is off to the NFL and former head coach Dana Holgorsen heads to AAC school Houston. Troy’s Neal Brown takes over the Mountaineers and his team will be challenged immediately in non-conference play. They go to Missouri in Week 2 and host North Carolina State in Week 3. Their conference schedule is front-loaded this year with an October stretch of Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma between their two bye weeks.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 6

TCU

2018 over/under win total: 7.5

2018 regular season record: 6-6

2019 outlook: TCU has to play six true road games in 2019, including a non-conference tilt at Purdue after a bye week, and at Iowa State in early October before their second bye. Then the Horned Frogs play seven straight weeks to close the season. Their other road games are at Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Gary Patterson’s teams usually bounce back after down years, but the schedule isn’t very kind to TCU in 2019.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 6.5

Baylor

2018 over/under win total: 6

2018 regular season record: 6-6

2019 outlook: Baylor jumped from one win in 2017 to six in the 2018 regular season before capping off Matt Rhule’s second year with a Texas Bowl victory over Vanderbilt. Baylor traditionally schedules weak non-conference games, and they should start the season 3-0 with games against Stephen F. Austin, UTSA and Rice. The most difficult part of their schedule features home games against Oklahoma and Texas in back-to-back weeks.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 6.5

Kansas State

2018 over/under win total: 6.5

2018 regular season record: 5-7

2019 outlook: Kansas State is one of four Big 12 programs that have a new coach, as the legendary Bill Snyder retired. Chris Klieman makes the jump from FCS powerhouse North Dakota State to the Wildcats. K-State plays at Mississippi State in Week 3 and has two byes in the first seven weeks of the season. The extra time off early in the year could prove to be valuable for Klieman as he continues to install his systems and schemes. Out of the second bye week, Kansas State hosts TCU and Oklahoma.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 6

Texas Tech

2018 over/under win total: 6

2018 regular season record: 5-7

2019 outlook: Texas Tech moved on from Kliff Kingsbury and brought in Utah State’s Matt Wells to be their new head coach. Wells and the Red Raiders travel to Arizona in a non-conference game in Week 3, then get a bye week before opening Big 12 play at Oklahoma. Texas Tech closes the season at Texas on the Friday after Thanksgiving.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 6

Oklahoma State

2018 over/under win total: 8

2018 regular season record: 6-6

2019 outlook: Oklahoma State played up and down to their competition in 2018, and ended up finishing ninth in the conference standings after the tiebreakers. They open the season on a Friday night at Oregon State, but their big early game is in Week 4 at Texas. The Cowboys end up playing four true road games before their first bye on Oct. 12 and finish the season with four of their last six games at home.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 7

Kansas

2018 over/under win total: 2.5

2018 regular season record: 3-9

2019 outlook: A three-win season would be embarrassing for most football programs, but Kansas actually exceeded their Vegas win total. It still wasn’t good enough for David Beatty to keep his job, as the Jayhawks made a huge splash by hiring former LSU Head Coach Les Miles to replace him. Kansas has crucial games against Indiana State and Coastal Carolina that they must win if they want to go over their win total for a consecutive season. Kansas will likely be underdogs in all nine conference games, so it will be fascinating to see how much they can improve in Miles’ first season.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 3

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