Predicting the 2019 Over/Under Win Totals for the Pac-12

The Pac-12 has two divisions just like the ACC, SEC and Big Ten, but the main difference in this league is that there are only 12 teams instead of 14. With a nine-game conference schedule in place, each team plays four cross-division games, leading to a fairly balanced Pac-12 slate.

It’s time to break down the “Conference of Champions.”

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Pac-12 North

Washington

2018 over/under win total: 10.5

2018 regular season record: 9-3

2019 outlook: Washington will need to reload a roster that is losing quarterback Jake Browning, running back Myles Gaskin and most of their defensive starters. Former five-star recruit and Georgia transfer Jacob Eason will likely take over at quarterback with Washington opening up with eight straight games before their first bye week. They play at BYU in a non-conference showdown before games against USC and at Stanford. They host Oregon the week before their bye week in a game that could decide the Pac-12 North title.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 8.5

Washington State

2018 over/under win total: 6

2018 regular season record: 10-2

2019 outlook: Washington State was one of the most profitable teams in 2018, easily exceeding their win total and consistently covering the closing point spread. Gardner Minshew had a strong season during his lone year in Pullman and now head coach Mike Leach will turn to Eastern Washington transfer Gage Gubrud at quarterback. Most of the Cougars’ toughest games are on the road as they play at Utah at the end of September and get Arizona State and Oregon in October. November features road games against California and Washington with a home contest against Stanford in between.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 7

Stanford

2018 over/under win total: 8.5

2018 regular season record: 8-4

2019 outlook: Stanford might have one of the most challenging regular season schedules in the country. Their non-conference games are against Northwestern in Week 1, at UCF in Week 3 and a season finale at home against Notre Dame. The conference schedule features tough games early on with a trip to USC and home tilts against Oregon and Washington within the first six weeks of the year. Having their toughest games at home is a positive, but having to travel across the country to Orlando early in the season will be a test.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 7

Oregon

2018 over/under win total: 8.5

2018 regular season record: 8-4

2019 outlook: The expectations for Oregon will be high in 2019 with quarterback Justin Herbert returning to school instead of starting his NFL career. They’ll be in the spotlight right away when they face Auburn to open the season in Arlington. A win against an SEC foe will likely decide the ceiling for this team. Their toughest conference games are on the road with trips to Stanford, Washington and USC. A late-season road game against Arizona State could be tricky, especially if the Ducks end up being in the College Football Playoff conversation.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 8

California

2018 over/under win total: 6.5

2018 regular season record: 7-5

2019 outlook: California achieved their season-long goal of making a bowl game in 2018, but losing the Cheez-It Bowl 10-7 in overtime to TCU was a forgettable way to end the year. The Golden Bears have three tough road tests in their first six games — at Washington in Week 2, at Ole Miss in Week 4 and against Oregon in Week 6. The schedule doesn’t ease up much after their first bye week, as they have three additional road games at Utah, Stanford and UCLA. The highlight of their six-game home schedule is a November meeting against USC the week before they face Stanford.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 6.5

Oregon State

2018 over/under win total: 2

2018 regular season record: 2-10

2019 outlook: Oregon State, the clear bottom-dweller of the Pac-12, hosts Oklahoma State in Week 1 and then takes a long trip to Hawaii for a Week 2 game against the Rainbow Warriors. They face UCLA, Utah and both Arizona schools from the Pac-12 South and then close the year at Oregon.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 2.5

Pac-12 South

Utah

2018 over/under win total: 7.5

2018 regular season record: 9-3

2019 outlook: Utah won the Pac-12 South last year and looks primed for an even better 2019. They open the season on a Thursday night at BYU and travel to USC later in the month for a Friday matchup. The Utes will look for revenge against a Washington team that handed them two loses in 2018, including one in the Pac-12 title game, when they play the Huskies in Seattle on Nov. 2. Looking to bet the Utah over will be one of the first things I do when their win total is released.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 8

Arizona State

2018 over/under win total: 4.5

2018 regular season record: 7-5

2019 outlook: There was a negative perception surrounding Arizona State in 2018 because of the Herm Edwards hire. He proved a lot of people wrong by making a bowl game in his first season, and it’ll be interesting to see how he fares in his second year in Tempe. The Sun Devils will travel to face a revenge-minded Michigan State in Week 3, but are lucky to avoid Washington and Stanford from the North.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 6.5

USC

2018 over/under win total: 8.5

2018 regular season record: 5-7

2019 outlook: It’s no secret that the Trojans were one of the most disappointing teams in 2018 after failing to make a bowl game. Unfortunately for them, there isn’t an easy game on their 2019 schedule with non-conference contests against defending Mountain West champion Fresno State, BYU and Notre Dame. They face Stanford, Utah and travel to Washington all in September. The second half of their schedule gets a little bit easier with a home game against Oregon as the most intriguing game from the bunch.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 7

Arizona

2018 over/under win total: 8

2018 regular season record: 5-7

2019 outlook: The 2018 season was a disaster for first-year Wildcats Head Coach Kevin Sumlin. He does get quarterback Khalil Tate back, but Sumlin will need to have a better showing in 2019.  Arizona plays at Hawaii on Aug. 24, which is seven days before the traditional Week 1 starting point of the college football season. They also have to play nine straight games because both their bye weeks are before conference play begins. October is the toughest stretch with games against Washington, at USC and at Stanford in three straight weeks. They also have to play at Oregon in November, meaning they have to face the Pac-12 North’s best programs.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 6

UCLA

2018 over/under win total: 5.5

2018 regular season record: 3-9

2019 outlook: There was expected growing pains in Chip Kelly’s first season at UCLA because of the unique offensive system he runs, but we should see improvement in his second year. The Bruins have to travel to Cincinnati in their opener and play Oklahoma at home two weeks later as part of their non-conference games. Avoiding Oregon and Washington from the Pac-12 North is helpful, but they still have to travel to Washington State and Stanford. The Bruins close the year with trips to Utah and USC before hosting California.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 5.5

Colorado

2018 over/under win total: 5

2018 regular season record: 5-7

2019 outlook: Colorado opened the 2018 season 5-0 and just needed to win one of their final seven games to go over their win total. They then preceded to lose out, push on their win total and fire head coach Mike MacIntyre. Mel Tucker now takes over for the Buffaloes, and there aren’t many favors on their 2019 schedule. Colorado has a non-conference game against old Big 12 rival Nebraska in Week 2, and plays at Oregon, at Washington State, Stanford and Washington as their cross-division opponents.

2019 over/under win total prediction: 4.5

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