Previewing No. 6 Villanova vs. No. 11 Saint Mary’s: Date, Time, Players to Watch

For the first time in six seasons, Villanova received a seed worse than a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats earned three No. 1 seeds and two No. 2 seeds in the last five years but they took a step back this season after losing their top four scorers from last season’s national championship team.

Villanova still swept the Big East’s regular season and conference tournament titles, which might speak to the level of competition in the conference more than the Wildcats’ dominance, but the conference championships were there for the taking and they won both.

They’ll play fellow conference tournament champion Saint Mary’s in the first round after the Gaels stole a bid from a bubble team with their 60-47 win over Gonzaga in the WCC Championship.

No. 11 seeds have won roughly 37 percent of their first-round matchups against No. 6 seeds so this projects to be a competitive game, and Vegas and the computers agree.

Overview

Date/Time: Thursday, March 21, 7:20 p.m. ET

kenpom.com prediction: Villanova def. Saint Mary’s 66-65

Point spread: Villanova -5 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

No. 6 seed Villanova

Coach: Jay Wright

Record: 25-9 (13-5)

Conference tournament finish: Won Big East

Player to watch: Phil Booth

The Wildcats are taking a ridiculous 53.5 percent of their shot attempts from behind the arc, which makes Villanova a dangerous NCAA Tournament team even if the 2018-19 Wildcats aren’t as strong as their recent predecessors. They’re led by a pair of fifth-year seniors in Phil Booth (18.6 ppg) and Eric Paschall (16.5 ppg), who were starters on last year’s national championship team, and the rest of the team’s rotation is comprised of freshmen and sophomores – outside of grad transfer guard Joe Cremo.

Villanova’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 16th nationally at 117.0, which is really good, but not quite to the level of its past four teams, which averaged at least 122 points per 100 possessions, per kenpom.com.

The Wildcats’ defense, however, suffered a big drop-off from years past. It ranks No. 73 nationally, which is the program’s lowest since 2012. In the last five seasons, Villanova finished in the top 12 in defensive efficiency.

All of that is said to lay the backdrop for a “modern day blue blood” that has taken a step back this season, as did its conference brethren. It wouldn’t be crazy to look up at see Villanova still playing in the second weekend but barring an absolute 3-point explosion, plus an improvement defensively, these Wildcats aren’t national title contenders.

[RELATED: Print Your 2019 NCAA Tournament Bracket Here]

No. 11 seed Saint Mary’s

Coach: Randy Bennett

Record: 22-11 (11-5)

Conference tournament finish: Won WCC

Player to watch: Jordan Ford

It’s funny how the basketball gods work. Saint Mary’s had 28 wins on Selection Sunday last season and missed the NCAA Tournament. This season the Gaels lost four in a row in non-conference play, six games total before conference play and finished five games behind Gonzaga in the WCC standings.

But they won the automatic bid.

G Jordan Ford nearly doubled his scoring production from last season, averaging 21.3 points per game after scoring 11.1 last season, and the Gaels’ offense is balanced with the interior presence of forward Malik Fitts (15.3 ppg, 7.6 rpg).

Saint Mary’s plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country as the Gaels average 62.6 possessions per game and they played an at even slower pace in their win against Gonzaga (60 possessions). While Villanova’s offense is efficient and features a heavy dose of 3-pointers, the Wildcats also play at a slow tempo so this will likely be a game that’s won with a score in the 60s.

The Gaels’ offense ranks No. 21 in terms of efficiency and they have the nation’s 55th-most efficient defense, so they have a favorable efficiency profile for a team that wouldn’t have made the NCAA Tournament without claiming an auto-bid.

Saint Mary’s excels at limiting opponents’ 3-point attempts (just 31.4 percent of opponents’ shots are threes, the ninth-lowest percent nationally) and the Gaels are strong defensive rebounding group (76.8% defensive rebounding rate), so their path to victory likely involves chasing the Wildcats off the 3-point line and limiting second-chance opportunities.

MORE: 2019 NCAA Tournament Schedule, Dates, Times, Locations