Week 11 Mountain West Predictions & Previews

Utah State (6-3) at Wyoming (4-5) Nov. 7, 8:00, ESPN2 

Here’s The Deal: With a stunning blowout win over Fresno State on the road – one of the most shocking wins of the Mountain West season – Wyoming busted through a four-game losing streak and now has a dream of a six-wins season and bowl eligibility. However, it’s going to take some work with Utah State this week and Boise State next week before finishing up at New Mexico – the Cowboys have to win two of the last three games. The offense finally started to work, and the defense came up with one of its best performances of the year. 

Utah State keeps on rolling even with its fourth-string quarterback. Freshman Kent Myers stepped in and hit 14-of-15 passes for 186 yards and three touchdowns against Hawaii to keep the Aggies alive in the Mountain division race. The run defense continues to be incredible and the offense is as efficient and effective as it needs to be. With New Mexico and San Jose State up next, the Aggies should be able to keep winning if they can get by this week, setting up a showdown against Boise State. 

What’s Going To Happen: The Cowboy running game will be shut down cold, while Myers and the Aggie offense will be just effective enough to keep the offense moving. Wyoming’s win over Fresno State will look like an aberration. 

Prediction: Utah State 27 … Wyoming 17 
Line: Utah State -7 o/u: 45.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Sonic Highways – 1: Anything involving Nik Wallenda … 2 

Air Force (6-2) at UNLV (2-7) Nov. 8, 4:00, CampusInsiders.com 

Here’s The Deal: UNLV came up with a huge win over Air Force last year that helped guide the season, but it came away banged up and bruised after dealing with all of the cut blocking. This year, the Rebels are still fighting, but they’re not coming up with anything positive in winnable games, like last week’s loss to New Mexico as part of a run of six losses in the last seven games. The Rebel offense is working and moving the ball, but the run defense has been a nightmare. 

Not being able to stop the run is sort of a problem when facing the Falcons. Air Force has won two straight and five of the last six games on the way to a bounceback season with bowl eligibility already secured. Thanks to a win over Boise State, there’s still a way to win the Mountain division by winning out and getting a little luck, but with home games against Nevada and Colorado State still to deal with, getting a seventh win now against a bad Rebel team would be a major plus to the bowl pecking order. 

What’s Going To Happen: This is a bad, bad matchup for a UNLV team that just gave up 301 rushing yards and four touchdowns to New Mexico. Air Force might hold the ball for close to 40 minutes as it controls the game from the start. 

Prediction: Air Force 34 … UNLV 24
Line: Air Force -5.5 o/u: 57 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Sonic Highways – 1: Anything involving Nik Wallenda … 2 

Idaho (1-7) at San Diego State (4-4) Nov. 8, 6:30 

Here’s The Deal: It’s been a weird season for San Diego State, and now, after a loss to Nevada, it’s going to be a fight just to get bowl eligible. The Aztecs are still in the hunt for the West title if they can win out and get a little help – like a Nevada loss or two – but they have to still go to Boise State next week and have to face key games against Air Force and San Jose State with three of the last four at home. Can the offense that’s so, so bad – ranking 121st in the nation in efficiency – do enough to get by, or will it be all around the running game? It might not matter against a horrendous Idaho defense. 

The Vandals haven’t stopped anyone’s running game, allowing 256 yards per game, and they’re not coming up with enough big plays to overcome the other problems. However, the offense has been dangerous at times with a good passing game and some pop and explosion. Can the passing attack beat the SDSU ground game? At the very least, it has to be able to keep things moving to keep up the pace. 

What’s Going To Happen: San Diego State will run for well over 300 yards, keeping the Idaho offense on the sidelines and controlling the game throughout. Idaho has been excellent in time of possession, but the Aztecs will slow things down a bit this week. 

Prediction: San Diego State 30 … Idaho 17 
Line: San Diego State -21 o/u: 57 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Sonic Highways – 1: Anything involving Nik Wallenda … 2 

Boise State (6-2) at New Mexico (3-5) Nov. 8, 7:00. CBS Sports Network 

Here’s The Deal: Boise State is still getting everyone’s best shot, and it’s still hanging on. After taking a week off from Mountain West play with a 55-30 win over BYU, it’s back on track as it desperately tries to hold off Colorado State, Utah State and Air Force in the chase for the Mountain division title. The passing game has been excellent, and the offense has exploded with 50+ points in two of the last three games, but against New Mexico, all that matters is stopping the run. 

The Lobos are coming off a win over UNLV to keep bowl hopes alive, but they’ll have to win three of their final four games against an absolutely brutal stretch against Utah State and Colorado State on the road before finishing up with Wyoming. Realistically, any hope of getting to six wins might have to start now, but it’ll take a dream performance from one of the nation’s worst run defenses to get it done. 

What’s Going To Happen: New Mexico is 124th in the nation in passing with its run first, run only offense, but the Boise State defensive front is a rock against the run, allowing just 113 yards per game. As long as the Broncos don’t turn the ball over in key spots, and as long as they don’t melt down like they did against Air Force earlier in the year, this shouldn’t be a problem. 

Prediction: Boise State 38 … New Mexico 17 
Line: Boise State -19 o/u: 64 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Sonic Highways – 1: Anything involving Nik Wallenda … 2 

Hawaii (2-7) at Colorado State (8-1) Nov. 8, 7:00, ESPNU 

Here’s The Deal: Hawaii is trying to do something to change around its rough year, and beating Colorado State would do it. With three of the last four games on the road, it’s going to take something special to finally come up with something positive with one of the nation’s least efficient passing games and a defense that’s not able to come up with enough key stops to get by. Can the offense that scored more than 18 points just once over the last six games keep up with the rolling Rams? 

Colorado State is on a seven game winning streak, and while it took a fight to get by Nevada, Utah State and San Jose State over the last month, wins are wins. With New Mexico and Air Force to close things out, the Rams should be able to roll through the rest of the slate with its ultra-efficient passing game and tough ground game, but they need help with a Boise State loss to get to the Mountain West title game. 

What’s Going To Happen: As long as the Rams don’t turn the ball over on a consistent basis, their offense should be able to roll at will. The defense won’t have any problems with a punchless Hawaii offense that can’t throw and can’t score. 

Prediction: Colorado State 38 … Hawaii 14 
Line: Colorado State -18 o/u: 56.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Sonic Highways – 1: Anything involving Nik Wallenda … 1.5 

San Jose State (3-5) at Fresno State (3-6) Nov. 8, CBS Sports Network 

Here’s The Deal: What’s up with Fresno State? The defending Mountain West champ has lost three straight, and while losing to Boise State stinks, that’s acceptable compared to gaffes against bad UNLV and Wyoming teams. There’s still time to turn things back around, but the offense has to find some sort of consistency and passing game, and the defense has to prove it can stop someone again – Wyoming couldn’t score against anyone this year, but hung up 45 against the Bulldogs. 

On a two-game losing streak, San Jose State is having problems with its defense, and now things get really tough with three road games in the final four with the one home game coming against Hawaii. The offense is working thanks to a strong passing game, and the secondary is doing its job, but can it make sure it doesn’t get lit up by the punchless Fresno State attack? 

What’s Going To Happen: The Spartan passing game will light up the Bulldog secondary, and while the defense will have problems against the run, Fresno State doesn’t have the ability to take advantage for a full sixty minutes. San Jose State will come up with enough big plays to get by. 

Prediction: San Jose State 34 … Fresno State 27 
Line: Fresno State -2 o/u: 59.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Sonic Highways – 1: Anything involving Nik Wallenda … 2