Week 12 SEC: South Carolina at Florida

South Carolina (4-5) at Florida (5-3) Nov. 15, 12:00, SEC Network 

Here’s The Deal: For all of the talk about Florida’s issues and Will Muschamp’s hot seat, the chance is still there for an SEC title, while South Carolina is the team that’s floundering and is quickly turning into the league’s most disappointing team. Most maddening is the potential, beating both East Carolina and Georgia – with Todd Gurley – but gagging away losses to Missouri and Kentucky on the way to a rough run of four losses in the last five games. However, all four losses were by a touchdown or less. Throw in the blowout loss to Texas A&M, though, and now the Gamecocks have to win two of their last three games against Florida, South Alabama and Clemson just to be bowl eligible. 

Florida turned its season around with two straight wins, beating Georgia and Vanderbilt to get deep in the hunt of the SEC East chase. It’s going to take a Georgia loss to Auburn and two Missouri losses, but if the Gators beat the Gamecocks, they’ll have done their part. While it might have been a weird season so far, all it’ll take is one more win to become bowl eligible. That might come with Eastern Kentucky next week, and Florida State is the fun one to close things out, but beating the Ball Coach would make for a fantastic finish to its SEC run. 

Why South Carolina Might Win: Can the Gamecock offense get it rolling early and make Florida start to throw the ball? The defense has had major issues, but even through the losses, the O has been moving the ball without much of a problem – just not consistently in key spots late – with a passing game that’s averaging close to 300 yards per game. As good as the Florida defense might be overall, it hasn’t faced too many teams that bomb away. Kentucky and Alabama threw well early on, and Georgia fought back with 319 yards from Hutson Mason, and South Carolina has to do the same and start pushing the secondary right away. The USC offense has to control the clock with midrange passing game because …

Why Florida Might Win: The South Carolina run defense has been a rumor. The front line has been getting buried, but the bigger problems have come against the teams with speed and agility, including athletic quarterbacks. Auburn and Tennessee combined for 749 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. In the four wins, USC has allowed four rushing touchdowns, and in the five losses it gave up 20 rushing scores. Over the last two games, Florida has pounded out nine touchdown runs and should be able to power up the running game from the start and control the game. 

Who To Watch Out For: Last year, South Carolina was always in the backfield finishing with 87 tackles for loss after coming up with 94 in 2012, 88 in 2011 and 2010 in 97. This year, not so much with just 30 tackles for loss and only coming up with more than four once. Meanwhile, the pass rush has been non-existent with just eight sacks and none in the last two games. Florida’s passing game doesn’t work when a light breeze blows behind the line, and the Gamecocks have to start generating a little bit of pressure. 

What’s Going To Happen: Florida will start running early and will control the time of possession throughout. Being +2 in the turnover margin will help out in a big way, too. 

Prediction: Florida 27 … South Carolina 24 
Line: Florida -6.5 o/u: 57 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Foxcatcher – 1: The Comeback … 3