Week 14 Big Ten: Illinois at Northwestern

Illinois (5-6) at Northwestern (5-6) Nov. 29, 12:00, ESPNU 

Here’s The Deal: How did this happen? How did a Northwestern team that lost four in a row and was left for dead get into a position to potentially go bowling with one more big win? How did an awful Illinois team that lost five games in six all of a sudden end up one win away from going bowling? The battle for the Land of Lincoln might not be high on the overall college football radar, but it’ll be an important win for one team, and a massive letdown for another. There’s actually something to play for here, and Illinois isn’t used to it. 

The Illini haven’t been bowling since beating UCLA in the 2011 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, but then came the Tim Beckman era, and then came a lot of losses. It’s not like a win and a bowl game would be the massive step forward needed for the program, and there are many concerned that a victory keeps Beckman around, but … yeah, a win would be a big deal. The Illini haven’t been consistent, and they don’t have a defense, but they managed to come up with a tough 16-14 win over Penn State to get into the position to potentially get into the post-season. 

Northwestern came up with a stunning win over Notre Dame before stomping all over Purdue, and now a rough year could close out with a big exhale. After last season’s collapse, getting six wins and a bowl bid would be tremendous for a program that suffered through injuries, key personnel losses, and a unionization distraction. The offense finally started to work over the last two weeks, and now there’s a chance to truly cement the moniker of being Chicago’s Big Ten team. 

Why Illinois Might Win: Northwestern’s offense might have found something over the last two weeks, but will there be a passing game without quarterback Trevor Siemian, who’s out for the year with a torn ACL? This wasn’t always a high-flying attack in the first place, but now the team is going into its biggest game of the year without its leader. If this gets into a grind, Northwestern is in big field position trouble. Illinois has one of the nation’s strongest punting games, while the Wildcats have had big problems, averaging just 32.5 yards per try. 

Why Northwestern Might Win: Illinois occasionally decides that defense is options. Northwestern might not have a juggernaut of an attack, but it ripped up Purdue from the start last week and found a ground game that works. Illinois has had its defensive moments, but for the most part it’s taken something special – like a tough late fumble from Minnesota and a horrendous game from Penn State – to be merely okay. This is a one-dimensional Illini team that can throw the ball, and that’s it. Northwestern’s secondary has been solid. 

Who To Watch Out For: Can Zack Oliver get the job done? The 6-4, 240-pound junior out of Baton Rouge was an excellent recruit for Northwestern, but he hasn’t been able to get much of a shot so far. A strong, accurate passer with decent mobility, the season is on the line and he has to come through with Siemian out. Fortunately, Justin Jackson can carry the offense, coming off of back-to-back 23-carry games running for 149 yards against Notre Dame and 147 against Purdue. 

What’s Going To Happen: Illinois is playing well enough in certain areas, but it’s just not consistent enough. Northwestern has stopped inventing ways to lose, and it’ll come out hot, getting up early and controlling the game throughout. 

Prediction: Northwestern 34 … Illinois 24 
Line: Northwestern -8 o/u: 52 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Birdman – 1: Horrible Bosses 2 … 3