Week 14 SEC: Arkansas at Missouri

Arkansas (6-5) at Missouri (9-2) Nov. 28, 2:30, CBS 

Here’s The Deal: Here it is, Missouri. Win one game, and you’re in the SEC championship for the second year in a row. Win that, and the SEC champion, you might be a mortal lock to make the College Football Playoff, even with a blowout loss to Georgia and a shocking home gaffe to Indiana. 

These might not be the high-flying fun Tiger team of last year, but it’s a solid defensive group that finds ways to get the job done. Now on a five game winning streak since the 34-0 loss to the Bulldogs, everyone keeps doubting, and Mizzou keeps coming through, playing well on the road in wins over Texas A&M and Texas, and getting through the free space games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Now, however, it has to stand up to the big, bad, bully. 

Get your pom-poms out, Georgia, because you’re in against Alabama or Mississippi State with a Tiger loss. 

Arkansas has become the hot team at the right time. Very, very close to coming up with a special season, the Hogs lost to Texas A&M in overtime, by one to Alabama, and by a touchdown to both Georgia and Mississippi State. The defense has turned it up a few notches over the second half of the season, and now it’s all coming together with back-to-back shutout wins over LSU and Ole Miss. But those two were at home against banged up and bruised teams, and now Arkansas is looking for its first SEC road win over Bret Bielema and the first since beating Auburn in early October of 2012. Win this, and Arkansas will come up with as many wins this year as it generated in 2012 and 2013 combined. Also, this would cement the honor of being one of the it programs going into 2015. 

Just five hours and 300 miles apart, shockingly, considering the first meeting was an 11-0 Mizzou win in 1906, this is just the sixth game between the two and the first since the 2008 Cotton Bowl – a 38-7 Tiger win. 

Why Arkansas Might Win: It’s not like the Missouri offense has been rocking and rolling. The Arkansas defense has turned into a brick wall against the run, stuffing LSU for 36 yards on 32 carries and Ole Miss for 36 yards on 33 carries – the Rebels and Tigers combined to average 1.5 yards per carry. More than that, the Hogs allowed 207 yards and three rushing touchdowns against Georgia in mid-October, making it the only time in the last ten games they allowed more than 200 rushing yards and more than one rushing score – Auburn and Georgia ran for six touchdowns on the Arkansas D, everyone else has run for three. Missouri’s run defense might be solid, but Georgia was able to run wild in a huge game with massive implications – just because this is a huge game, that doesn’t necessarily mean Mizzou will play at another level against the Arkansas power game. 

Why Missouri Might Win: But this has been a terrific Tiger defense against the run, especially since the Georgia disaster. Helped by an aggressive defensive front that camps out in the backfield, Mizzou hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown in any of the last four games and just one, against Florida, in the last five. The two times Missouri gave up 200 rushing yards just so happened to come in the two losses to Indiana and Georgia. As good as the Arkansas running game might be, it hasn’t hit the 200-yard mark in the last three games and hasn’t done it in its last five SEC outings. Arkansas has a decent passing attack, but the Tigers will take their chances and pin their ears back to stop the Hog backfield. 

Who To Watch Out For: Missouri defensive end Shane Ray has turned into a sure-thing first round draft pick and a possible top ten overall selection thanks to his brilliant junior year. The 6-3, 245-pounder might not be huge, but he’s strong enough against the run and a blur into the backfield with 12 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss. Consistent, he’s producing game in and game out despite being keyed on, allowing fellow end Markus Golden to roam free behind the line with two sacks in each of the last two games. Considering Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen is struggling with a hip problem, he could be a sitting duck. 

What’s Going To Happen: Arkansas has been fantastic lately, and the defense is playing at a high level, but the Mizzou defense is about to crank it up a few notches. It’s not going to be pretty offensive football, and Tiger QB Maty Mauk will spray too many passes all over the field, but Ray and Golden will have huge performances taking Missouri to its second straight SEC championship game. 

Prediction: Missouri 27 … Arkansas 20 
Line: Arkansas -2 o/u: 54.5 
Must Watch Factor: 5: Birdman – 1: Horrible Bosses 2 … 4.5