The highly anticipated Super Bowl between Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs and Tom Brady’s Buccaneers is just days away. It’s expected to be a great football game, but like every Super Bowl, it’s the most enticing sports betting event of the year.
There’s a point spread and over/under like every game, but for this matchup there are many more ways to get action. From the national anthem to the winning coach’s Gatorade shower, every moment ends up mattering for bettors.
All the prop bets can be overwhelming — especially for novice bettors — because it’s very tempting to make a lot of wagers on the last football game of the season. My advice would be to isolate a handful of bets you feel strongly about and stick with those. If you bet 30-40 props, the game might not be as enjoyable because it’s hard to keep track of your bets and what to root for each play.
Most of the props I will bet are correlated to how I think the game will play out. If you think you’ve got a feel for the big game, then figuring out the relevant props you want to bet on becomes a lot easier.
I’ll give a full preview of the Super Bowl on a Periscope show I host called Weekend Warriors. The show will be live for an hour tonight at 7 p.m. ET and can be seen on Stadium’s Periscope channel or Stadium’s Twitter.
Here are my favorite bets for Super Bowl LV.
Point spread and moneyline bets
The point spread for this game opened Chiefs -3.5 right after they defeated the Bills in the AFC Championship. It quickly moved down to -3 and has held steady for most of the last 11 days, although some sportsbooks are dealing -3.5. Just make sure you are getting the best number depending on which team you like.
If I had to make a bet on the point spread before this game, I would bet on the Chiefs -3. I have bet against the Buccaneers in some way during their last two playoff games against the Saints and Packers. While turnovers and third-down struggles hurt me and my wallet, I don’t regret making those bets and I think that the Bucs’ magical season could end with a loss on Sunday.
Mahomes has won 25 of his last 26 starts, so being able to get the Chiefs at only -3 feels like a bargain. Remember that these two teams played in Week 12 and the Chiefs won 27-24. I’ll get more into this game later, but the Chiefs got out to a 17-0 lead before the Buccaneers scored touchdowns on their final two possessions to cover the spread and make the scoreboard look respectable. Since this is the Super Bowl, I expect the Chiefs to not take their foot off the gas like they did in November.
What’s really holding me back from making a big wager on the Chiefs is the fact that they’ll be without both starting offensive tackles. Left tackle Eric Fisher tore his Achilles against the Bills while right tackle Mitchell Schwartz has been on the IR. That’s even scarier when you realize that Buccaneers pass rushers Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul combined for five sacks against the Packers two weeks ago. If the Bucs pressure Mahomes then they’ll have a path to win this game.
Because I don’t have a great feel on how the first quarter will start, I’m going to be looking at the live markets for this game and I plan to take the Chiefs if they become an underdog. When the Chiefs went down 9-0 to the Bills, they became an underdog on the live moneyline — and that was the time to get involved if you liked Kansas City pregame but wanted better odds.
Another KC-centered strategy is to take them on the moneyline the day of the game. They are currently in the -162 to -170 range, and I can see that price becoming more favorable before kickoff because I predict a lot of Buccaneers bettors will take them on the moneyline instead of +3. The Bucs took money against both the Saints and Packers on game day, so I would hold tight if you like the Chiefs and maybe you can get a deflated moneyline price on Kansas City.
Pick: Chiefs live moneyline at plus money
Total and point bets
The total for this game opened at 57 and has dropped to a consensus number of 56. The total of the previous Chiefs-Bucs meeting closed at 56 and somehow stayed under (the two teams combined for 960 yards). My strategy for this matchup is to root for a low-scoring game early and hope to find an opportunity to live bet the over at a lower number.
That’s because Super Bowls involving Tom Brady tend to start slow. Brady appeared in nine Super Bowls with the Patriots and they only scored in the first quarter in one of those games. Five of the nine games featured a scoreless first quarter by both teams, and there were more points scored in the second half than the first half in seven of the games. While those are non-Bucs trends, there’s credence to the fact that Super Bowls start slow and pick up as the game goes on.
Under 10 for the first quarter is something I’ve considered, but there are other point-related bets that interest me more. I like the Chiefs to score more points in the second half than first half at -125. Even if the Chiefs get off to a slow start, I wouldn’t worry about them making adjustments and playing better in the second half. I also like the second half to be the highest scoring half at -105 because of the previously mentioned reasons.
Pick: Chiefs to score more points in second half than first half (-125) & second half to be highest scoring half (-105)
Quarterback bets
The quarterback matchup is the main storyline for this game as Brady looks for his seventh Super Bowl title and Mahomes tries to win his second in a row. There are numerous props for both quarterbacks, but it’s important to determine how you think the game will play out before betting anything related to the QBs. If you think the Buccaneers will lead for most of the game, then maybe going under on some Brady props is the way to go because they will be running the ball more.
I don’t have any Brady-focused bets, but I am interested in a few wagers involving Mahomes. The first is over his completions at 28.5 because whether the Chiefs are leading or trailing, I expect a pass-centric gameplan since they are facing a stout run defense. The Chiefs’ offensive line injuries will likely lead to a lot of short passes that have a good chance of being completed. Over 40.5 pass attempts is also viable for Mahomes, but I feel more comfortable with completions.
I like Mahomes to win MVP honors. If you think the Chiefs will win this game, then betting Mahomes to win the award is a good way to have a stake in Kansas City without laying the moneyline price. The narratives surrounding both quarterbacks combined with a high total makes it very likely one of the signal-callers will be named MVP.
Last year, Chiefs running back Damien Williams had a viable case for winning the award, but Mahomes won it despite throwing two interceptions and struggling for much of the game. Something similar happened when Brady won Super Bowl MVP against the Falcons despite running back James White having an incredible receiving performance and the game-winning touchdown in overtime. It just proves that neither QB has to be the best player on the field to win the award as long as their team takes care of business.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes over 28.5 completions (+100) & Patrick Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP at -110 or better
Running back bets
Each team has two running backs with widely available prop bets posted for this game. As for Tampa’s duo of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones, Fournette has emerged as the lead running back for Tampa Bay in the playoffs while Jones battled late-season injuries. KC’s run defense is their weak link, so those two players will be a key part of the Buccaneers’ offensive success.
The Chiefs’ running backs are Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams. Their prop numbers are very similar, indicating that it’s expected to be a split backfield. Edwards-Helaire missed the final two games of the regular season and the Divisional Round against the Browns with an ankle injury. He returned against the Bills and only had seven yards on six carries, while Williams recorded 13 carries and 52 yards in the AFC title game.
I would predict that Williams stays ahead of Edwards-Helaire in the pecking order because of Williams’ recent success and pass-blocking skills. Throw in the offensive line injuries and a scary Tampa d-line, and I expect Edwards-Helaire to play less snaps than what’s being accounted for in the prop numbers. It just makes sense to bet the under on Edwards-Helaire’s rushing yards prop on Sunday.
Pick: Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 30.5 rushing yards (-105)
Receiving bets
As of now, I’m not going to bet any wide receiver or tight ends props. Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill had 13 receptions for 269 yards and three touchdowns (seven catches for 203 yards and two touchdowns in the first QUARTER alone!) the last time these two teams played. That’s why Hill’s receiving yards prop is as high as 94.5 after being in the mid-70s for Week 12 against the Bucs. Hill has posted 100+ yards in both playoff games, just like teammate Travis Kelce, who has a receiving yards prop as high as 98.5 at some sportsbooks.
The primary wide receivers for the Buccaneers are Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Godwin’s receiving yards total is up to 77.5 for the Super Bowl after only being 65.5 for the NFC title game. Evans has a combined four receptions for 54 yards in the last two playoff games while his receiving yards total is 63.5 for the Super Bowl.
Pick: Pass
Defensive bets
There are plenty of defensive props for this game that you won’t find for any other NFL matchup. The one bet that sticks out for me is over 4 total sacks. Even though I believe Mahomes will have a good game, he’ll be in a position to be sacked several times due to the volume of drop-backs. The Chiefs have also invested a lot of money in their pass rush and Tom Brady isn’t a mobile quarterback, so that should contribute to the sack total, too.
Pick: Over 4 total sacks (-120)
Special teams bets
How do you know it’s the Super Bowl? There are actually bets involving kickers and punters — and I have a punt prop that interests me. The Chiefs have punted once this postseason and only a combined nine times in the playoffs over the last two years. Their total punts prop is set at 3.5, but the juice on the under is -200. So instead of laying that price, I’m going to bet the Buccaneers to have more punts than the Chiefs.
Pick: Buccaneers (-125) to have more punts than the Chiefs
