During the NFL season, Stadium sports betting analyst Nate Jacobson will break down every single point spread using lines as of Thursday morning. Here are his thoughts on the Week 10 slate.
Note: Nate will discuss all of his college football and NFL bets on the Sharp Lessons podcast that drops every Tuesday and Thursday. Subscribe on Spotify and Apple for episodes and follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content.
Sides I Like
Browns (+3.5) over Dolphins: I really like this situation for the Browns coming off a bye week. The last time we saw Cleveland, they had a dominating win over the Bengals on Monday night in Week 8. I don’t like betting on teams after performing well on national TV, but having the bye last week allows Cleveland to reset. The Browns should also be healthier with names like CB Denzel Ward and OL Wyatt Teller back at practice this week.
The biggest reason I like the Browns is because their offense — specifically their run game — should have success against the Dolphins defense. Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski is a quality game-planner and play caller, and with extra time to prepare that unit should play well. The Browns are 3-5 and soon play the Bills and Buccaneers before getting QB Deshaun Watson back from suspension. A win here would get Cleveland back into the AFC playoff conversation. I bet the Browns +4 on Tuesday, and I’d play them at anything over a field goal.
Packers (+5) over Cowboys: While I have downgraded the Packers quite a bit through their five-game losing streak, my line for this home game is Packers +3. I see line value on Green Bay at +5, but their current injury situation is less than ideal. The perception of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers is very low after scoring nine points in a dome against the Lions, one of the worst statistical defenses in the league. However, the Packers had five total drives inside the Lions’ 22 that resulted in three points. If Rodgers took care of the ball instead of throwing interceptions in the red zone, the Packers would’ve likely won the game and the point spread for this upcoming matchup would look different.
This is also a good time to sell the Cowboys. Although Dallas is coming off a bye, I believe they are overvalued based on this price. Dak Prescott has fared well in his return from a thumb injury, but he had two soft matchups against the Lions and Bears at home. While the Packers defense has underachieved this season, this is a road game for the Cowboys, and potentially chilly weather in Green Bay could be a shock to the system for a team that plays most of their games indoors or in warm weather. I plan to monitor the Packers’ injury report to see if I can get a better number, but by kickoff of this game I’ll likely have a bet on Green Bay.
Sides I’m Considering
Texans (+5) over Giants: I’ve been looking to bet against the Giants most of this season, but I stayed away from them during their last game out against the Seahawks in Week 8. Now I want to return to fading the 6-2 Giants, who are overachieving due to their quality coaching staff. That being said, I originally wanted to bet the Texans before a line move on Wednesday took this game from Texans +6.5 to +5. While I don’t like Houston as much at +5, I’ll still consider them and hope some money comes back on the home team.
Steelers (+1.5) over Saints: I hate betting on the Steelers, but I like this spot for them. Pittsburgh is at home coming off a bye week, while the Saints will have short rest because they played this past Monday night. I also just downgraded the Saints based off their poor Monday performance. On top of that, players I thought New Orleans would have back from injury by now haven’t returned to the field. In a game with a total of 40.5, the Steelers look like a great teaser leg at +7.5.
Broncos (+2.5) over Titans: The Titans are coming off a very impressive defensive performance against the Chiefs this past Sunday night. The Titans couldn’t move the ball in the second half with Malik Willis under center, but the defense was able to get the game into overtime and easily cover the 14-point closing spread.
But now I wonder how the Titans defense responds after being on the field for 91 plays and over 41 minutes of game action. The Broncos are coming off a bye week after a potential confidence-boosting win over the Jaguars in London, so they’ll be fully rested and fresh for this game despite their recent on-the-field deficiencies.
The biggest thing to monitor here is if Willis starts for the third-straight game or if Ryan Tannehill makes his return from an ankle injury. The current line at Titans -2.5 would imply that Tannehill will be back, but if Willis is the starter, I would expect the line to be closer to a pick’em or move toward the Broncos as a small favorite. Regardless, this is a tough spot for the tired Titans, and I’ll be looking at backing the Broncos.
Game-Time Decisions
Falcons (-2.5) at Panthers: These two teams played 11 days ago in Atlanta, and the Falcons closed -4 in a game that turned out to be one of the most exciting watches of the season with the Falcons prevailing in overtime.
I initially wanted to take the Panthers because if they were +4 at the Falcons in Week 8, then they should be +1 at home. However, the Panthers are coming off an embarrassing performance against the Bengals that led to two assistant coaches being fired, and I’m worried about the mindset of the team for a Thursday night game. QB PJ Walker is going to start again after just being benched for Baker Mayfield even though Mayfield appears to be a slight upgrade over Walker.
Seahawks vs. Buccaneers (-2.5) in Munich: Before the season, the point spread for this game was Buccaneers -9. But a lot has changed since then with the Seahawks already going over their regular season win total of 5.5 while the Buccaneers have a losing record.
The point spread for this game re-opened Buccaneers -1 on Sunday night after the Bucs beat the Rams but Tampa Bay took a wave of money on Monday morning to drive this number up. I agree with the line move because I think the Buccaneers defense should have an answer for the Seahawks offense that is overachieving. I’m currently leaning toward the Buccaneers, but this game being played in Germany makes it harder to handicap. I want to see if this line goes back down before betting.
Jaguars at Chiefs (-9.5): The Jaguars showed some heart last week rallying from a 17-0 deficit against the Raiders to record their first win since Week 3. As for the Chiefs, they needed OT to beat the Titans and now have a big game on deck against the Chargers. I don’t have an opinion on this game right now, but might have at least some interest in the Jaguars if I could get +10.
Lions at Bears (-3): The Bears have taken a huge step forward on offense during the last three games thanks to improvement from QB Justin Fields and more creative play calling. But after trading Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith before the deadline, the Bears’ defense has declined. I would look to continue to play overs in games involving the Bears as long as the weather report is clean.
Vikings at Bills (-3.5): We have a huge question mark here with QB Josh Allen having an elbow injury, making his status moving forward uncertain. On Sunday night, this line went from Vikings +9 to +7.5 and the number has continued to trickle down throughout the week. The current number would indicate Allen’s unlikely to play in this game, and if he doesn’t, I would be interested in betting on Buffalo at under a field goal with Case Keenum starting.
Colts at Raiders (-6): I’m extremely fascinated with how this game will play out. The Colts fired Frank Reich after the Indy offense only had 2.0 yards per play at the Patriots in Week 9. In comes interim coach Jeff Saturday, who doesn’t have coaching experience higher than the high school level, and on top of that, 30-year-old assistant QB coach Parks Frazier will be calling plays for the first time ever.
On the other sideline, the 2-6 Raiders are coming off a demoralizing road trip with losses to the Saints and Jaguars. I can’t lay this many points with a Josh McDaniels-led team, but I have no interest in putting my money behind these Colts.
Cardinals at Rams (-1.5): The point spread for this game was sitting at Rams -3 for most of the week. Then on Wednesday, news emerged that Rams QB Matthew Stafford had entered the concussion protocol. Soon after, we found out that Cardinals QB Kyler Murray didn’t practice on Wednesday due to a hamstring injury. I didn’t have an opinion on this game before both pieces of news and will wait as long as possible to decide if I’ll bet it or not.
Chargers at 49ers (-7): This number seems a touch high with the look-ahead line being 49ers -3.5. The Chargers beat the Falcons last week and the 49ers were on their bye, so not much changed over the last week, but there are several factors in San Francisco’s favor to explain the point spread.
The 49ers are expected to be healthier in this game, and their bye will also help Kyle Shanahan prepare against a Chargers defense that has trouble stopping the run. The Chargers are very thin at wide receiver and on the o-line, which is a bad combination against a 49ers defense that can pressure Justin Herbert. There’s a wide range of potential outcomes due to Brandon Staley’s aggressive style of game management, so I’m going to stay away from this one.
Commanders at Eagles (-11): I need more time to think about this Monday night matchup. For now, I think the line is correct when you factor in a strong primetime home-field advantage for Philadelphia. It’s unlikely I’ll have a bet on this game.
