Sides I Like
Patriots (+7) over Cowboys: This is a game I’ve had circled as a potential spot to bet against the Cowboys after they outscored their opponents 70-10 in the first two games. But those games were against Daniel Jones in rain weather and Zach Wilson off a short week. I was really hoping Dallas would win by margin against Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals to boost their spread against New England, but they lost 28-16. There’s some concern that the Cowboys refocus and bounce back off the worst game they’ll probably play this season, but there’s still enough factors to bet the Patriots here.
The key to the handicap is getting Bill Belichick as a substantial underdog against Mike McCarthy. Belichick is one of the best game planners in NFL history, while McCarthy has more on his plate this season after taking over offensive play-calling duties. This is a huge coaching mismatch, especially if McCarthy struggles like he did in Week 3.
Also worth noting: The Patriots’ 1-2 record has aged well. New England played a close game against Philadelphia in Week 1 and held Miami’s offense in check the following week. Those two losses look better with both teams being 3-0 entering this week. This isn’t a perfect storm, because the Cowboys’ loss last week has this number at +7 instead of +7.5 or higher, but I bet on Bill Belichick’s team to keep this game close in Dallas on Sunday.
Sides I’m Considering
Bills (-2.5) over Dolphins: The Dolphins are the most exciting team in the league and are coming off a 70-point offensive output against the Broncos in Week 3. That’s the most points in an NFL game since 1966. With that being said, I will be looking to sell high on Miami coming off a 50-point win. I still have questions about the Dolphins defense against a top offense like the Bills have.
Buffalo is coming off two blowout wins of their own against the Raiders and Commanders. Obviously, the Dolphins are the best team the Bills will have played so far, but the chance to get the Bills under a field goal at home is something that interests me.
Broncos (-3) over Bears: The Broncos lost by 50 points last week and they immediately got bet out from -2.5 to -3.5 on Sunday evening. That’s an indictment of how bad the Bears are after they lost by 31 points last week.
Both teams have 0-3 records, and I would trust Sean Payton a lot more than Matt Eberflus to get his team to bounce back after a nightmare start to the season. The Bears have a lot of injuries in their secondary and have no semblance of an offense. The Broncos have at least shown life on offense and just need their defense not to capitulate like they have the last two weeks.
Saints (-3) over Buccaneers: It appears that QB Jameis Winston will start this game for the injured Derek Carr. While Carr has a higher floor than Winston, the former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall pick has enough of a ceiling to be a very minimal downgrade to Carr. I like the idea of taking the Saints at a reduced price with Winston under center after squandering a 17-point lead to the Packers in Week 3. New Orleans will also have RB Alvin Kamara in the fold after he served a three-game suspension to start the year.
The Buccaneers were picking up some hype after starting the season 2-0, but those two wins were against the Vikings and Bears, who are both 0-3. Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay were exposed against the Eagles on Monday, and now they face another strong defense in New Orleans. What’s holding me back from betting the Saints as a favorite is this game having a low total. It’s a game I’m monitoring, but in no rush to bet.
Game-Time Decisions
Lions (-1.5) at Packers: I want to wait on official injury news before deciding how to bet this Thursday night game. WR Christian Watson, RB Aaron Jones and CB Jaire Alexander all were inactive in the Packers’ comeback win in Week 3. There’s a chance those players were held out with the team knowing they had a division game on deck with a quick turnaround. I would be interested in betting the Packers if some of those players are in, but I’m in no rush to bet this game.
Falcons vs. Jaguars (-3): This game is on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium in London. There might be a slight edge for Jacksonville, who has built a fanbase in England because they play there annually, and the team is used to the trip.
I personally make this line less than a field goal in favor of Jacksonville, but don’t have interest in betting on Atlanta at +3 with what they did on offense last week. The Falcons had 2.8 yards per play in an indoor game at the Lions.
Vikings (-3.5) at Panthers: I was planning to make a strong case for the Panthers because I expected rookie QB Bryce Young to miss another week with an ankle injury, which would mean veteran Andy Dalton would start again. The Panthers were able to move the ball with Dalton last week in Seattle and he wasn’t at fault for their 37-27 loss.
However, Young was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice and is on track to start this week. The betting market views Dalton as a slightly better QB than this past draft’s No. 1 overall pick, as the line went from Vikings -3.5 to -4 with the news Young was back at practice. If Young has a setback and Dalton starts, the Panthers would be back in consideration as a home underdog.
Ravens at Browns (-2.5): Before the Week 3 games were played, the Ravens were a road favorite in this game. There’s been a big line move because the Ravens lost in overtime to the Colts despite being favored by more than a touchdown, and the Browns had a dominating win over the Titans in which Tennessee only had 94 total yards.
I agree with the point spread adjustment, but don’t want to get involved in this game because of that. The Browns closed -3.5 against the Titans and now are laying -2.5 against a Ravens team that’s rated higher than the Titans. There’s also a low total in this game, which is another reason to stay away from backing Cleveland as a favorite.
Steelers (-3) at Texans: This would be a good situational spot to fade the Steelers after they played their last two games in primetime, and this is their second straight road contest. But it looks like that disadvantage is built into the number with them being only a field goal favorite against the Texans. Houston had an impressive win last week at Jacksonville, so we aren’t getting a price discount on them because of their great performance.
Rams (-1) at Colts: I think this number is right. The big question is if rookie QB Anthony Richardson will return after missing Week 3 with a concussion. Backup Gardner Minshew was serviceable in Indianapolis’ upset win in rainy Baltimore, but it was the running game and defense that guided the Colts to a big win.
The Rams had a disappointing loss to a banged-up Joe Burrow on Monday night in Cincinnati. LA was able to move the ball at times with four trips to the red zone, but their only touchdown was with just over a minute left to cut a 10-point deficit to three. I need more information before making a decision on this game.
Commanders at Eagles (-8): Before the Eagles trounced the Buccaneers on Monday evening, they opened as a seven-point favorite in the game. After a great performance in front of a national audience, the Eagles ticked up to over a touchdown favorite.
The Commanders had a lot of betting support, closing as a five-point underdog against the Bills last week. Washington never had a chance, losing 37-3. Also, the Commanders’ Week 2 comeback win over the Broncos is less impressive after Denver’s defense gave up 70 points to Miami in Week 3. I don’t feel comfortable betting this big of a spread in a division game, but will be looking to play the Eagles in a six-point teaser if the line stays at -8 or -8.5.
Bengals (-2.5) at Titans: If Joe Burrow was 100 percent healthy, this line would be short. But after seeing him struggle to move around and throw the ball downfield in Cincinnati’s season-saving win on Monday night, it’s clear he’s not close to being healthy with a strained calf. I understand why the Bengals are less than a field goal favorite in this spot with concerns about Burrow’s health, and I’m not interested in betting this game yet.
Raiders at Chargers (-5.5): The Chargers finally got a win last week in a predictable close game against the Vikings. Now they are in the home favorite role against a team who will have the fan advantage by far in this game. This is the kind of game to bet against the Chargers or stay away.
However, Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo is in concussion protocol and that’s part of the reason this line has gone towards LA early in the week. I’m going to wait and see if Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell start for Las Vegas in this game before deciding what to do, but I’ll likely stay away.
Cardinals at 49ers (-14): The Cardinals have exceeded expectations in all three games this season. They are 3-0 against the spread and are coming off an outright win as a double-digit underdog against the Cowboys. Now, they are back in the big underdog role and travel to face a 49ers team with extra rest off their Thursday night win. San Francisco is the only side I would consider in this game, but concerned that they might have a vanilla game plan with a huge game against the Cowboys in Week 5.
Chiefs (-9.5) at Jets: Unfortunately, we have to watch another New York Jets game in primetime. They have a solid roster, but it’s hard to watch QB Zach Wilson struggle against some of the better teams in the league. I don’t like betting big favorites on the road, but don’t want to put my money on the Jets with Wilson starting.
Seahawks at Giants (-1): I was a little surprised to see a flip of favorite early in the week for this Monday night game. The Giants are 1-2, but have a long time to get ready for this game because they played Thursday in Week 3. The Seahawks closed -4.5 at home to an Andy Dalton-led Panthers team, so they are not getting much respect in the betting market and maybe that’s why we’ve seen early support for New York. These are two teams I’m looking to bet against this season, so I’ll have nothing here.
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