Sides I Like
Jaguars (+5.5) over Bills: There’s a very unique situational spot that favors the Jaguars in this game. Jacksonville will be playing in London for the second straight week. They won last week against the Falcons at Wembley Stadium, where the Jaguars usually play their annual London game. This week, they are listed as the road team for a game against the Bills at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which is about 12 miles northeast of Wembley. We’ve never seen a team play two international games in a row, but this has to be a huge edge for the Jaguars against a Bills team who is traveling to England this week.
Even if this game was played in the United States, I would look to bet against the Bills the game after they played as well as they could against the Dolphins. It was a huge win for their AFC East and playoff aspirations. However, it could’ve been a costly win with Buffalo losing star CB Tre’Davious White to a season-ending injury. The Jaguars will be getting back LT Cam Robinson from a four-game suspension, which is a big boost for their offensive line. My point spread for this game is Bills -4.5, so there is slight line value on the Jaguars before factoring in the travel situation.
Falcons (-1.5) over Texans: These are two teams trending in opposite directions in the last two weeks, but I believe the odds have shifted too far. The Falcons have dropped two in a row after a 2-0 start and are getting poor QB play from Desmond Ridder. The Texans have bounced back after a 0-2 start with wins over the Jaguars and Steelers. Houston has had elite QB play from No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud, despite a number of injuries on the Texans’ offensive line.
My numbers still have the Falcons rated higher than the Texans because we’re still early enough in the season where preseason evaluations remain a factor. The Falcons are also the home team, so I believe this number should be closer to Falcons -3. Maybe I’m not doing enough to upgrade the Texans with their promising rookie QB and should downgrade the Falcons for playing the week after a London trip, but I already bet the Falcons at a short moneyline price and would still bet on them at the current number.
Steelers (+4) over Ravens: The Ravens are 3-1 and have one leg up in the AFC North with road wins at the Bengals and Browns. They’ll be trying to complete a division sweep in road games after just five weeks of the season with a win this week. However, those wins at Cincinnati and Cleveland aren’t as impressive as they seem. They played the Bengals in Week 2, and since then we’ve learned Joe Burrow and their offense isn’t quite right. Then last week, they avoided Deshaun Watson and got to face fifth-round rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson in his first NFL start. The Ravens have been dealing with injuries all season and four more players left this past Sunday’s game against the Browns, including RT Morgan Moses.
The Steelers are coming off a terrible performance in a loss to the Texans. I’ll give Pittsburgh a pass in that game because it was a tough situational spot for them after playing back-to-back primetime games in Weeks 2 and 3 before a road game in Week 4.
The big question in this game is who will start at QB for the Steelers. Early in the week I thought it would be a Mitch Trubisky game after Kenny Pickett sustained a bone bruise in the second half of Sunday’s loss. Pickett hasn’t been ruled out, but I would actually prefer Trubisky playing and getting the Steelers at a bigger number than Pickett starting not fully healthy. Regardless of who starts, The Steelers thrive in the home underdog role and I expect them to bounce back.
Vikings (+4.5) over Chiefs: I have picked against the Vikings several times this season and looked to sell them after they overachieved last year. Now, I’m looking for spots to buy the 1-3 Vikings, who are better than their record indicates. Minnesota has regressed after a lot of good fortune last season and they’ve been unlucky through the first four games with 11 turnovers, including seven fumbles lost. The Vikings also have a tendency to play close games, so getting them in this kind of underdog role at home is appealing.
I would’ve preferred if the Chiefs won more convincingly in Week 4 to get the chance to take the Vikings at +6 in this game. But I would still play Minnesota at +4.5 or better.
Packers (-1) over Raiders: I like the Packers at anything under a field goal this week as a road favorite on Monday night. The last time we saw Green Bay, they were dominated in the first half against the Lions last Thursday night. The Packers eventually cut the lead to 10 before losing 34-20. Green Bay now has 11 days to prepare for this game and get much-needed rest before going to Las Vegas.
The reason the Packers needed an extended layoff is their early-season injury situation. WR Christian Watson missed the first three games before returning on a snap count in Week 4. RB Aaron Jones also returned in Week 4 on a limited basis after missing the previous two games. Having those two back with full workloads will be key for QB Jordan Love and Green Bay’s offense. CB Jaire Alexander also could come back, which would be key to have him cover former Packer Davante Adams.
On the other side, I’m looking to fade Josh McDaniels and the Raiders as much as I can this season. QB Jimmy Garoppolo missed last week because he was still in concussion protocol, so his status for this game is something to monitor.
Sides I’m Considering
Bengals (-3) over Cardinals: If you told me before the season the Bengals would only be a three-point favorite against the Cardinals in Week 5, I would’ve assumed Joe Burrow was out for this game. Burrow is clearly not close to healthy with a calf injury, but all indications point to him playing in this game as Cincinnati tries to recover from a 1-3 start.
The Cardinals playing a lot better than expected is anther reason why we are seeing this number. They were projected to be the worst team in the NFL this season, but they’re 3-1 against the spread and could’ve easily covered this past week against the 49ers.
Even though the Cardinals have played better than the Bengals this season, I don’t want to totally ignore my preseason thoughts on these teams as long as Burrow plays. I want some more time to see where this number goes, but I’m definitely interested in betting Cincinnati here.
Game-Time Decisions
Bears at Commanders (-5.5): I personally make this Thursday night game Commanders -4.5, so I would’ve considered the Bears at +7 like we saw earlier this week. What held me back from betting on the 0-4 Bears is not trusting a bad coaching staff to prepare on a short week — plus travel — after a demoralizing loss to the Broncos in Week 4.
Panthers at Lions (-10): I usually look to take big underdogs in the NFL, but I can’t get behind the Panthers with rookie QB Bryce Young starting. The one game Carolina had a semblance of an offense was when Andy Dalton started for the injured Young in Week 3. Last week, Young returned and the Panthers’ only touchdown was a 99-yard pick six on the first possession of the game.
The Lions are coming into this game with extra rest after an impressive Thursday night performance at the Packers in Week 4. I won’t bet this game unless this line drops back to Lions -8.5, and I would use Detroit in six-point teasers.
Titans (-1.5) at Colts: This is a huge game in the suddenly wide open AFC South. The Titans are coming off a big win as home underdogs to the Bengals. It was a great performance by Tennessee, but I wonder how much Joe Burrow’s injury factored into their success. I was considering the Colts, but Indianapolis has played back-to-back overtime games, so I have worries they will be fatigued for this one.
Giants at Dolphins (-11): Usually I would say getting double-digits with a Brian Daboll-coached team is enough to make a bet. But after what I saw from the Giants’ offense on Monday night, I can’t get there. New York allowed a below average Seattle Seahawks defense to sack QB Daniel Jones 11 times. It’s a very bad offense, especially without RB Saquon Barkley and LT Andrew Thomas. I also wouldn’t want to bet against the Dolphins in this game because they have the explosive offense to score points quickly and get out to an early lead.
Saints at Patriots (-1): Both teams are coming off disappointing losses in Week 4 and I don’t want to bet on either of them. The Patriots could be interesting in a game where they have the coaching advantage, but their already banged-up defense got more depleted with the injuries to pass rusher Matthew Judon and CB Christian Gonzalez on Sunday.
Eagles (-4.5) at Rams: The big question in this game is the health of Rams QB Matthew Stafford, who played through a hip injury in Los Angeles’ overtime win in Indianapolis this past Sunday. Despite the injury, the Rams have taken most of the action this week, bringing this point spread down from some of the early openers.
My initial thought was to buy the Eagles in a game where they will likely have more fans in the crowd than the Rams. But I do have concerns about Philadelphia’s defense right now and need more time to think about this game.
Jets at Broncos (-1.5): The point spread for this game re-opened Broncos -3 after Denver rallied from a 21-point deficit to record their first win of the season, and before the Jets took the field for a Sunday night contest against the Chiefs. Zach Wilson playing a lot better than expected in a close loss moved this game off 3 immediately and towards the Jets. I agree with the move and think that Wilson can build off that performance. The line is correct now, so I’ll just watch and observe.
Cowboys at 49ers (-3.5): Last year, these two teams played a Divisional Round game in the same stadium and the 49ers closed at -3.5 with a total of 46.5. It was an evenly matched game, but Dak Prescott’s mistakes and an injury to Tony Pollard cost Dallas the game. Not much has changed between these teams since last season, so I believe the point spread is correct. If the 49ers ever got to -3, I would have a small bet on them, but it doesn’t appear that will happen by kickoff on Sunday night.
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