Sides I Like
Bengals (-3) over Seahawks: I bet the Bengals -2.5 this week and would still play them at -3. I haven’t been sure how to rate the Bengals over the last few weeks because of Joe Burrow playing through a calf injury. Burrow looked healthy for the first time this season in Week 5, throwing for 317 yards against the Cardinals in a 34-20 win. The Cardinals do not have a good defense, but Burrow showed me enough to believe his calf injury is a minor issue going forward.
The Seahawks are coming off a bye and the last we saw them was in a dominant win over the Giants on a Monday. The Seahawks had 11 sacks that night after entering the game with five sacks over the first three weeks. Seattle played well on defense, but it had more to do with the Giants being inept than the Seahawks turning a corner when it comes to pass rushing.
The Bengals are still undervalued if Burrow is close to 100 percent and I’m lower on the Seahawks this season than most people. That’s enough for me to back Cincinnati at home at -3 or better.
Colts (+4) over Jaguars: Last week, I bet on the Jaguars in a very unique situational spot for them. They were playing in London for the second straight week against a Bills team coming off a huge win against the Dolphins. I thought Jacksonville would be the far more rested team because they didn’t have to take a long flight that week and were acclimated to the time zone in England. The game played out how I expected with the Jaguars getting out to a good start and winning 25-20.
Now I want to bet against the Jaguars, who face a tough situational spot of playing two games in London and now are back in action without a normal bye week that teams usually take after playing an international game. I also believe the Jaguars are getting too much credit in the betting market for beating the Bills in a game in which I expected them to play well.
I also like the Colts in this game, as they look to avenge a Week 1 loss to the Jaguars. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson suffered his second in-game injury of the season last week and backup Gardner Minshew came in to guide the Colts to an important division win against the Titans. Richardson definitely has a higher ceiling than Minshew, but the former Jaguars QB is a very capable backup that knows Shane Steichen’s offense after spending last year with the Colts head coach in Philadelphia. The combination of not having Richardson to Minshew as a big downgrade, and a potential disadvantage for the Jaguars off back-to-back London games makes the Colts my favorite bet of the week.
Sides I’m Considering
Ravens (-4) over Titans: I usually don’t want to bet a favorite of over a field goal in a game with a total in the low 40s. But the Ravens are the only side I can look to in this early kickoff in London. The main reason for wanting to support the Ravens is how they lost last week’s game against the Steelers.
The Ravens had multiple chances to build on their early lead, but costly drops and other mistakes allowed the Steelers to hang around and rally to win. If the Ravens won that game by margin, the point spread for this game would probably look a little different, so there’s a chance to buy low on Baltimore against a Tennessee team that hasn’t inspired me this season.
Vikings (-2.5) over Bears: Last week, the Vikings had a lot of betting support and closed as a 3.5-point underdog at home to the Chiefs. The Vikings lost by seven, but had chances to cover the number after falling behind by 14 in the third quarter. Now the Vikings are laying less than a field goal against a Bears team who just snapped a 14-game losing streak dating back to last season. I know the Vikings need to be downgraded after placing Justin Jefferson on injured reserve this week, but there’s been an overreaction in this point spread now that’s it’s under a field goal.
The Vikings offense without Jefferson will be worse overall, but they still might have advantages against a very bad Bears defense. The Vikings have a first-round rookie in Jordan Addison that has flashed at times and makes the loss of Jefferson manageable for a least one week. In a game with a point spread that is basically pick the winner, I’ll take Minnesota over a Chicago team that hasn’t been able to figure out how to win under Matt Eberflus.
Patriots (+3) over Raiders: I’m going to consider the Patriots in a game where Bill Belichick is getting a field goal against former assistant Josh McDaniels. But I have already placed a different bet in this game and could correlate to New England covering.
I bet under 42 in this game on Tuesday morning after the Raiders win over the Packers on Monday night because I want to bet against both offenses in this game. New England’s offense has been anemic this season and they have three points over the last two games. On the other side, the Raiders offense has been inconsistent and Belichick knows the tendencies of McDaniels and former Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo. I see a struggle for points in Las Vegas on Sunday. If I had more trust in the Patriots offense, I would bet on them as an underdog.
Game-Time Decisions
Broncos at Chiefs (-10.5): There hasn’t been any movement in terms of the point spread for this Thursday night game. The total has been down from 51.5 to 47. I don’t have any interest in betting on this game because the Broncos defense is a terrible unit, but I don’t fully trust this Chiefs offense to cover a big spread.
Commanders at Falcons (-2.5): This is a similar setup to last week for the Falcons who were are a short home favorite against the Texans. I bet the Falcons last week, hoping to buy low on a team that had high expectations to start the season. They ended up covering early-week numbers, but not the closing number of -2.5 as they only won by two. There were encouraging signs from the Falcons, however, as QB Desmond Ridder had his best game of the season by far.
I can see the Commanders bouncing back off a bad Thursday night loss to the Bears since they have extra time to prepare. The point spread is fair for this game, so I’m likely going to stay away.
49ers (-7) at Browns: I really wanted to bet the Browns this week. The 49ers are coming off the performance of the season in a 42-10 thumping of the Cowboys last Sunday night. It was a good enough showing where the line for this game moved from 49ers -3 to -4.5 right after they won that game. This spot seemed like a perfect time to sell high on San Francisco off a nearly perfect game and needing to travel to face a Cleveland team off the bye.
However, QB Deshaun Watson’s shoulder injury that caused him to miss the Week 4 game is still lingering and he missed practice on Wednesday. The line has climbed all the way to 49ers -7, which has to mean P.J. Walker is more likely to start than Watson. There might be opportunities to bet against the 49ers in the near future, but I won’t get involved in this spot unless Watson suits up.
Saints (-1.5) at Texans: The Saints re-opened at -2.5 for this game off a shutout win over the Patriots in Week 5. That quickly got bet down to Saints -1 before settling at this number. I don’t have a strong opinion on either team, so I’m going to stay away.
Panthers at Dolphins (-13.5): The spread for this game opened Dolphins -14 before being bet down a little bit. My numbers show line value on the Panthers at +13.5, but I have no interest in betting against a Miami team with a prolific offense against a below average defense.
My concern with betting on the Dolphins is they have a huge Sunday night game against the Eagles next week, so maybe they’ll rest starters late in the game and the Panthers offense can score enough to stay within the number.
Lions (-3) at Buccaneers: The Buccaneers have overachieved this season, starting 3-1 after having a regular season win total of only 6.5 before the year. I am going to look for spots to bet against Tampa Bay, who had an early bye in Week 5.
The Lions have given a good accounting of themselves the last three week after a loss to the Seahawks in Week 2. I’m looking to potentially bet the Lions in this game, but I want more information on their injury report. Slot WR Amon-Ra St. Brown missed Week 5 with an injury, and he’s the key player I would want active if I were to bet Detroit.
Cardinals at Rams (-7): Last week, I thought there was way too much respect in the betting market for the Cardinals. They have been a feisty team that is outperforming their talent level, but only being a three-point underdog against the Bengals was too much of a leap. Arizona lost by 14 points and now are back to being properly rated for this game.
I’m not sure what to make of the Rams, who could be a playoff contender in the NFC with QB Matthew Stafford and the return of WR Cooper Kupp. But the season could get away from them with lack of depth and a shaky defense. I don’t want to bet on LA to cover a big spread in their own building where they have very little home-field advantage, so I’ll stay away.
Eagles (-7) at Jets: You can make a case that there is some line value on the Jets as a home underdog of a touchdown. Zach Wilson has played better in the last two games than what we’ve seen most of his career, and the Jets just had a big win against the Broncos to improve to 2-3 and keep their season alive.
However, there will be a complete mismatch in the trenches when New York is on offense against Philadelphia’s pass rush. The Jets just lost a key starter on the offensive line in Alijah Vera-Tucker and this could be a game where Wilson returns to his mistake-prone ways.
Giants at Bills (-14): I really want to make a case for the Giants here as a huge underdog. The reason would be Giants HC Brian Daboll returning to face the team where he was the OC from 2018-21. I can see Daboll coaching this game to keep the score close and not get embarrassed against a team and coaching staff he’s familiar with. That’s probably not good enough of a reason to take the 1-4 Giants in a road game on primetime, so I’ll likely pass.
Cowboys (-2.5) at Chargers: This could be a bounce-back spot for the Cowboys after an embarrassing 42-10 loss to the 49ers this past week. Now they have another primetime game in the state of California against a Chargers team off the bye. I’m not sure what to expect from the Chargers after the first four weeks, so I’m going to have no bets in this game.
Nate will discuss all of his NFL and college football bets on Stadium Bets. Check out the new show across Stadium’s OTT and OTA channels and subscribe on Spotify and Apple for podcast episodes. Don’t forget to follow Stadium Bets on Twitter for more sports betting content!
