This week's No Huddle column covers Pitt Coach Pat Narduzzi's impressive Chaos Win Percentage and what other coaches have a notable percentage of wins that have sent the College Football Playoff picture into chaos.
Pitt is just four games over .500 in the five years of the Pat Narduzzi era, checking in at 30-26 after the Panthers’ 35-34 win over No. 15 UCF on Saturday, which marked the Knights’ first regular season loss since November 2016. Three of Narduzzi’s 30 wins were at No. 3 Clemson in mid-November of 2016 – roughly two months before the Tigers won the national championship – against No. 2 Miami in the regular season finale in 2017 and most recently, against a UCF team that was 27-1 in its last 28 games.
With respect to Pitt’s on-field success that happened before anyone reading this column was born – eight of the Panthers’ nine claimed national titles were before 1940 – Pitt as we currently know it might be one of the most consistently mediocre Power Five programs in the country. I mean, the Panthers went 7-7 last season so not much else needs to be said.
Have you ever heard of a college football team playing in its conference championship game and a bowl game, and only finishing with seven wins?
But that’s what makes Pitt’s Week 4, just like its Week 13 in 2017 and Week 11 in 2016, so incredible.
Pitt hasn’t won more than eight games in a decade and it hasn’t won fewer than five games in a season in more than two decades, so for a program that has yo-yoed along the fine line of bowl eligibility (lately they’ve eclipsed it more often than they’ve fallen short of it), three potentially College Football Playoff-impacting wins in the last four seasons is an incredible feat.
We’ll call these Chaos Wins.
(For what it’s worth, FiveThirtyEight projected UCF to have roughly a 14 percent chance of making this year’s playoff if it went undefeated again this season, so while it was extremely unlikely the Knights would’ve qualified, they had a non-zero percent chance.)
That means 10 percent of Narduzzi’s wins at Pitt have been huge. Not just wins over top-25 opponents or over a rival but wins that potentially changed the national college football landscape.
We’ll call that 10 percent figure his Chaos Win Percentage™, calculated as Chaos Wins/Total Wins at School.
Given Pitt’s recent success in some really, really big games, I was curious what other coaches have a high Chaos Win Percentage.
We’ll define the parameters as active Power Five head coaches who have won less than 60 percent of their games at their current school (because chaos doesn’t ensue if Clemson or Alabama beats a top-10 opponent but chaos happens if Purdue or Boston College does) and who have won at least one game that did change or potentially could’ve changed the national title race.
This, of course, is somewhat subjective but essentially the goal is to identify programs whose place in their conference’s hierarchy is middling, or worse, that have recently won at least one game where if the school hadn’t pulled off the upset, its opponent potentially could have made the playoff. In some cases, the opponent did make the playoff, like Clemson in 2016 after it lost to Pitt.
To identify Chaos Wins that happened prior to the College Football Playoff era, we tried to find teams that theoretically could’ve finished in the selection committee’s top four if the playoff existed and if the higher-ranked team hadn’t lost the game in question. A team can be ranked while earning a Chaos Win but it must be ranked at least 10 spots lower than its opponent.
It’s worth noting a win over a team that’s highly ranked at kickoff doesn’t count if the opponent finishes with a much worse record than its early-season ranking would indicate. For example, Mississippi State’s win over No. 8 Auburn last season wouldn’t count because the Tigers finished the regular season 7-5. They were far from the nation’s No. 8 team, let alone a playoff contender.
Coaches in their first season at a school weren’t eligible for this analysis.
Without further ado, here are the active Power Five coaches with the highest Chaos Win Percentage at their current school, as defined above. I included UCF and Washington’s losses this season as Chaos Wins for their opponents because the two schools could’ve been playoff contenders if they hadn’t suffered the losses in question.
1. Matt Campbell, Iowa State: 21-20 (.512); at No. 3 Oklahoma in Week 6 2017, vs. No. 4 TCU in Week 9 2017, vs. No. 6 West Virginia in Week 7 2018 | Chaos Win Percentage: 14.2%
2. Justin Wilcox, Cal: 16-13 (.551); vs. No. 8 Washington State in Week 7 2017, at No. 14 Washington in Week 2 2019 | Chaos Win Percentage: 12.5%
3. Pat Narduzzi, Pitt: 30-26 (.536); at No. 3 Clemson in Week 11 2016, vs. No. 2 Miami in Week 13 2017, vs. No. 15 UCF in Week 4 2019 | Chaos Win Percentage: 10%
4. Jeff Brohm, Purdue: 14-15 (.482); vs. No. 2 Ohio State in Week 8 2018 | Chaos Win Percentage: 7.1%
5. Dino Babers, Syracuse: 20-21 (.487); vs. No. 2 Clemson in Week 7 2017 | Chaos Win Percentage: 5.0%
6. Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern: 97-72 (.574); at No. 8 Iowa in Week 10 2009, vs. No. 21 Stanford* in Week 1 2015 | Chaos Win Percentage: 2.0%
7. Mike Leach, Washington State: 52-40 (.577); vs. No. 5 USC in Week 5 2017 | Chaos Win Percentage: 1.9%
*Stanford went 10-2 in the regular season, won the Pac-12 Championship and finished at No. 6 in the final CFP rankings in 2015
One Chaos Win can lead to a huge contract extension the next offseason and multiple wins in consecutive seasons can lead to a coach receiving attention from an NFL team.
It has become a borderline annual tradition at Pitt, which means we should probably go ahead and put Notre Dame on upset alert next season, as well as a preseason top-15 Tennessee team in 2022 that’ll be coached by [redacted] and travels to Pitt for a non-conference game.
Pitt’s destiny is to win no fewer than five games and no more than eight, and send one playoff-contending opponent’s postseason hopes into oblivion every year or two.
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