North Carolina vs. Villanova Prediction – Who’s Got Next
North Carolina vs. Villanova prediction and preview analyzes the national championship game between the Tar Heels and Wildcats.
North Carolina vs. Villanova prediction and preview analyzes the national championship game between the Tar Heels and Wildcats.
North Carolina is an unquestioned blue blood of college basketball. Villanova has spent enough time in the spotlight to be considered just a step below, but the Wildcats have an opportunity to step into that upper echelon Monday night in Houston.
North Carolina is 11-4 all-time vs. Villanova, including 5-1 in NCAA Tournament play, and Roy Williams’ Tar Heels beat the Wildcats in the Final Four in 2009. But we all know the past isn’t important on Monday night. What is important is both teams play quality defense and still have the explosive ability on offense to blow opponents out of the gym.
These teams are similar, but they’re also different. UNC is more athletic offensively while Villanova is better in the halfcourt and shows better patience. The Wildcats are looking to put to rest the memory of March failures by turning the page in April, while Williams is focused on doing something Dean Smith never accomplished—win a third national title for North Carolina.
North Carolina vs. Villanova – Tale of the Tape
Forward
Villanova’s Daniel Ochefu vs. North Carolina’s Brice Johnson
Ochefu isn’t a back-to-the-basket, back-a-guy down kind of scorer. He has some post skills—he’s not a stiff—and he averaged double digits in scoring, but the bulk of those points came on putbacks off of rebounds. He’s also a good shot blocker, and he’s a decent enough passer to make an impact. Ochefu is a big body who likes to play physical in the paint.
Johnson is a double-double machine, someone whose length sets him apart, and he’s explosive off the floor. He can score with either hand, and he does a great job of playing within himself. Johnson runs the floor well, he’s athletic, and his length makes him special on both ends of the floor. Johnson’s jump hook is nearly impossible to block, and his variety of moves on the low block allows him to get to the free-throw line and create foul trouble for opposing bigs.
Advantage: North Carolina. Ochefu will try to be physical, but Johnson has been the there before and will handle it.
Villanova’s Kris Jenkins vs. North Carolina’s Kennedy Meeks
Jenkins doesn’t fit the mold of a prototypical power forward, but Villanova’s style doesn’t demand he be one, either. Jenkins can score inside and out, and he’s great at running the floor and finishing in transition. He can knock down the open three, and he is effective at putting the ball on the floor and going to the rim. He’s a decent rebounder and a solid passer who can trigger the break, and Jenkins’ defense makes him a disruptive presence.
Meeks is a banger, a big body who isn’t counted on to be the go-to guy in the paint. His muscle allows him to create space to operate inside, and his best work comes when he is aggressive with the ball or going after rebounds. He isn’t a great shot blocker, but he can be a presence, and Meeks isn’t afraid to mix it up when he feels challenged.
Advantage: Villanova. Jenkins is one of Villanova’s keys, and Meeks can be inconsistent.
Wing
Villanova’s Josh Hart vs. North Carolina’s Justin Jackson
Hart is Villanova’s leading scorer, a perfect do-everything player on the wing who can crash the boards, turn and burn back up the floor in transition. He does a good job of getting the glass for his size, and he’s a lock-down defender who can frustrate opponents. Hart is a solid 3-point shooter who also can finish at the rim, and his quick hands lead to a lot of live-ball turnovers. When the shot clock is winding down, Hart will be the guy with the ball in his hands.
Jackson is the perfect complementary scorer. He can take over at times, but he isn’t the kind of player who demands the ball or will disrupt the offense. He’s a quality passer who also is active on the defensive end, and Jackson has just enough touch from the perimeter to keep opponents honest. His length makes him a quality defender, and he doesn’t have a problem handling the ball on the break.
Advantage: Villanova. Jackson is a solid player, but Hart can be special. If ‘Nova wins, it will be because Hart had a big game.
Guard
Villanova’s Jalen Brunson vs. North Carolina’s Joel Berry II
Brunson is Villanova’s unsung hero, a guy who plays his role and doesn’t do anything to disrupt his team on the floor. That said, his play is critical. He’s a decent scorer who also is a good passer, and he’s a nice safety valve on the perimeter. Brunson’s key contribution comes on the defensive end where he uses his quickness to stay in front of opponents and quick hands to upset passing lanes.
Berry can score inside and out, and his ability to draw defenders to the perimeter before blowing past them will force Villanova to play a lot of help defense. Berry is great a driving and finding the open man when the defense collapses, which leads to easy buckets for the bigs. Berry is also UNC’s best on-ball defender, and he will give the Wildcats headaches in the backcourt.
Advantage: North Carolina. Brunson is primarily a defender whereas Berry can play both ends of the floor.
Villanova’s Ryan Arcidiacono vs. North Carolina’s Marcus Paige
If you’re looking for Villanova’s heart and soul, look no further than Arcidiacono. He’s a great passer who provides a rudder for the offense, and his basketball IQ and awareness allows him to make plays despite lacking a bit in athleticism. He has great feet on defense, and his ability to knock down the open triple gives ‘Nova’s offense balance. Arcidiacono needs to avoid foul trouble and stay on the floor to provide leadership for his team.
Paige is an intriguing player because he has a sense of the moment, but he also can press too much at times and try to do too much. He is fearless with the ball in his hands, he’s a quality passer who is as good in the halfcourt as he is in the open floor, and he can break down opponents off the dribble. His quickness will provide issues for ‘Nova.
Advantage: Draw. Arcidiacono and Paige are drastically different players, but they both can take over games in their own ways.
Bench
Villanova’s Phil Booth, Mikal Bridges, Patrick Farrell, Darryl Reynolds vs. North Carolina’s Isaiah Hicks, Nate Britt, Theo Pinson, Joel James
Booth, Bridges, Farrell and Reynolds are as close to an extension of the starting lineup as you’ll find in the Final Four. All four of the players averaged at least 17.5 minutes, and there isn’t much of a drop-off when one of them come into the game. Reynolds is a solid rebounder who can score inside when he gets the ball on the block, and Booth is far from hesitant when he gets an open look. He’s a streaky shooter, but he puts pressure on opposing guards to follow him beyond the arc.
Carolina runs deep, and the lineup doesn’t take a step back when Roy Williams goes to the bench. Hicks, Britt and Pinson all have had big moments this season, and Pinson is a change-of-pace point guard whose passing sets him apart. Hicks and Britt are fearless and provide an instant impact off the bench, and James can make his presence felt when he is aggressive even if he only gets limited minutes.
Advantage: North Carolina by a hair. Villanova’s bench isn’t bad by any stretch, but UNC doesn’t miss a beat on either end with the second unit.
Coaches
Villanova’s Jay Wright vs. North Carolina’s Roy Williams
Villanova has finally broken through this year and slayed some of its demons by getting first to the Final Four and then to the title game, and it has been Wright’s steady leadership that has kept his team focused on the future instead of the past. Wright is a stickler for details, someone who has found the right balance with his team between pushing it without overworking his players. With a national championship on the line, Wright isn’t going to let up now.
Williams is heading to his fifth NCAA Tournament title game, and he owns a 2-2 record. His experience will ensure that UNC takes a business-as-usual approach to the game, and Williams is great at anticipating the moves of his opposing coaches. He’s also not stubborn about playing a certain style, and he’ll have his players ready to play Monday night.
Advantage: North Carolina. Wright has done a lot this year, but Williams is more experienced and won’t feel the same pressure.
X-Factor
Villanova’s defense is special, and the Wildcats’ ability to take teams out of their comfort zone and force them to play a different style has been a strength. ‘Nova is filled with high basketball IQ players, and few teams are as close on the court as the Wildcats. They have played with a singular focus this season, and they’ll need to stick together if they run into adversity.
North Carolina needs to take better care of the ball than it has at times this season. UNC’s own defense has saved it when the turnover start mounting, but Villanova can make teams pay for being loose with the ball. It’s not a huge problem for the Tar Heels, but it’s enough of a factor that it has cost UNC some games this year. Getting a solid night from Paige will be critical, as well.
Intangibles
What kind of letdown will Villanova have after ripping Oklahoma in the national semifinals? The Wildcats played out of their minds against the Sooners, knocking down 71.4 percent of their shots overall and 61.1 percent from 3-point range. They forced 17 turnovers and just demoralized OU on defense. Villanova has been consistent all season, and if anything, the game vs. Oklahoma was an outlier because of how WELL ‘Nova played. Building off that confidence while not losing sight of what got them there will be.
North Carolina doesn’t shoot the three well, and unlike Syracuse, Villanova will likely pack the paint and dare UNC to beat the Wildcats from the perimeter. The question is whether UNC will have the patience to run their offense if the Tar Heels are having a rough shooting night. UNC also can’t allow their focus on defense to wander under the bright lights.
North Carolina vs. Villanova Prediction
The title game will make up for the duds in each of the Final Four contests. Villanova holds its own, but North Carolina does enough to hoist the program’s sixth national championship.
Final Score Prediction: North Carolina 77, Villanova 73
