2015 CFB Preview – Florida State


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Reload or rebuild? That’s the big question in Tallahassee

By Rich Cirminiello | @RichCirminiello

Reload or rebuild?

For now, just getting through the offseason is enough.

After all the drama from the Jameis Winston issues, now FSU has to deal with the PR nightmare of two key players – RB Dalvin Cook for now, QB De’Andre Johnson as a would-be future playmaker – getting in trouble for separate violence allegations.

It’s not that the team didn’t have enough to deal with on the field. But the program has become used to controversy.

Florida State has won three consecutive ACC championships, and came within two playoff victories of back-to-back national titles. But now that Winston, among many others, are in the NFL, and with the concerns this offseason, the bar must be lowered for the 2015 Seminoles. But how far?

Jimbo Fisher and his staff continue to stockpile star-studded recruiting classes, and a winning culture now permeates throughout Tallahassee. The key to this season, however, will hinge upon the balance of the offseason, a time when the coaches will be diligently preparing the next generation of Noles for distinctly expanded roles in the fall.

Fisher left no doubts about his aspirations or his expectations for this season when he went hard after Everett Golson once the jilted Notre Dame quarterback announced his desire to transfer. The coach now expects to win titles, a far cry from the final chapter of the Bobby Bowden era. And Fisher wasn’t convinced in the spring that Sean Maguire was the guy to lead the Noles back up the mountain.

This year’s attack will hang its hat on the backfield of Golson considering Cook has been indefinitely suspended, while remaining optimistic about the revamped O-line can pave the way. Four starters are gone up front, though the 2014 unit underachieved, and the successors have plenty of untapped potential.

Not unlike the offensive line, the entire D missed its mark in 2014 as well. And a repeat is going to prove costly for second-year coordinator Charles Kelly, particularly since the offense doesn’t figure to shoulder so much of the load in 2015. Talent was never an issue so much as execution, which is why the staff is bearing the brunt of the criticism.

Kelly’s back seven ought to be fine – better than fine, actually – as CB Jalen Ramsey, LB Terrance Smith begin final preparation for NFL careers. However, the Noles must become nastier at the line of scrimmage after being downright impotent in the pass rush. Plus, DE Mario Edwards and Eddie Goldman left voids after leaving school early and being selected in the second round of the draft.

Everyone in the ACC, including Clemson, is chasing the Seminoles these days, but it’s been a few years since they were as catchable as they are entering the 2015 campaign.

For all of the distractions Winston created, few QBs this century were as clutch or as successful where it mattered most. If Golson isn’t worth all of the attention he generated in May, the Noles’ run of ACC dominance will be in serious jeopardy.

But first, the Seminoles just have to get to September as soon as possible.

What you need to know about the offense: After losing Jameis Winston, last year’s top two receivers and four starting linemen, the Florida State offense will have a very different look in 2015. While there’s no easy way to replace Winston, who lost just one game in two years, the Noles did land Everett Golson from Notre Dame in a stopgap measure. Golson is certainly not without his flaws, but he represents a sizable upgrade to last year’s backup, Sean Maguire. Golson has a live arm and will team with emerging young receivers, like Travis Rudolph, Jesus Wilson, Ja’Von Harrison and Ermon Lane. Making matters tougher is the suspension of star RB Dalvin Cook, but the gifted backfield tandem of Jacques Patrick and Mario Pender should be able to pick up the slack. The development of the O-line ought to be monitored very closely. Yeah, there’s natural concern about the revamped unit. Yet, there’s also optimism, particularly related to tackles Roderick Johnson and Chad Mavety, and guards Kareem Are and Wilson Bell. If crackerjack assistant Rick Trickett can address depth and the pivot this summer, the front wall is liable to surprise the rest of the ACC.

What you need to know about the defense: The coordinator handoff from Jeremy Pruitt to Charles Kelly was a colossal flop in 2014, pressuring the latter to turn things around immediately. The Noles were a shell of their 2013 selves, going south in every major statistical category, including sacks, scoring, yards per play and third-down stops. There’s way too much talent and natural ability in Tallahassee for a repeat of last season’s relative futility. Florida State will be fine at linebacker as long as Reggie Northrup and Mathew Thomas are healthy enough to join the star, Terrance Smith. It’s up front and in the secondary where the team is replacing four NFL draft picks, linemen Mario Edwards and Eddie Goldman, and DBs P.J. Williams and Ronald Darby. But while the defensive backfield can rally around the likes of Jalen Ramsey, Nate Andrews and Tyler Hunter, the line is hungry for sparkplugs. After feebly generating 17 sacks in 14 games, Kelly desperately needs some combination of Lorenzo Featherston, Jacob Pugh, Demarcus Walker, Rick Leonard and Chris Casher to impact the opposing pocket.

What to look for offense: Oh!-line. While all of the offseason talk—naturally—has centered on replacing QB Jameis Winston, the Noles also have work to do up front. Four starters are gone, including draft picks Cameron Erving, Tre’ Jackson and Bobby Hart. Roderick Johnson is the new anchor and a budding star at left tackle. And the staff is cautiously optimistic so far about LG Kareem Are, RG Wilson Bell and RT Chad Mavety. However, depth and the situation at center warrant close scrutiny. Ryan Hoefeld had the inside track, but injured his knee in the spring and was passed by rugged Alec Eberle. This unit has serious, next-level upside, but will it be realized this quickly?

What to look for on defense: Cranking up the pass rush. Assistant Brad Lawing was hired in January with one edict from Jimbo Fisher—get your ends and outside linebackers to create more chaos. Florida State ranked last in the ACC—and 108th nationally—with 17 sacks, despite playing more games than most FBS teams. How is that possible for a program with so much natural ability? The staff is holding out hope that sophomores Lorenzo Featherston, Rick Leonard and Jacob Pugh can make the most of their opportunities for playing time. The 6-7, 273-pound Leonard, in particular, wowed coaches with his length, versatility and non-stop motor.

The team will be much better if … it dramatically cuts down on turnovers. There are plenty of areas for improvement compared to 2014, but chief among them must be costly turnovers. The Noles were next to last nationally with 32 giveaways, including 20 interceptions. Last year’s team was able to overcome those mistakes, because Jameis Winston was so clutch, even when he was the guy committing the error. But Jameis is in Tampa, along with his propensity for late-game heroics. If Florida State is careless with the ball this year, it’s going to cost this squad in ways that directly hit the standings.

The Schedule: The Seminoles don’t play UCF, but they’re making the Sunshine State Tour with South Florida, Miami, and Florida all on the schedule.
– Considering the rivalry aspect to the Miami game, dealing with the Hurricanes and going to Georgia Tech for a 2014 ACC Championship makes for a tough pair of Coastal games.
– It’s Florida State, so it can show up and win eight games, but it’ll all be about the road dates. Forget about losing at Wake Forest, but going to Boston College – on a Friday night – and facing Georgia Tech, Clemson and Florida away from Tallahassee will make-or-break the season.
– The Seminoles don’t get a slew of home dates in a row like most top teams do – check out Clemson’s schedule. They don’t get three home games in a row all year long.
– WATCH OUT FOR … Syracuse. The Orange should be a wee bit better, and they come into Doak Campbell as the sandwich game between FSU road games at Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Best Offensive Player: Senior QB Everett Golson. It would’ve been Dalvin Cook, but now it’s the former Notre Dame starter who’s perfectly suited to step in right away and take over the spotlight. Cook has the total package in a young runner, but now it’s the veteran in Golson who’ll have to be the star of the attack and a steadying force. Lost in all of the turnovers and mistakes with the Irish over the second half of last season was that he was one flag away from not only beating Florida State, but being everyone’s midseason Heisman front-runner. He showed he could elevate the Irish offense all the way to the national title game, and now he just might be able to do something close to that with a rebuilding FSU attack.

Best Defensive Player: Junior CB Jalen Ramsey. You want to talk best college football player of 2015, regardless of position? Ramsey has to be in that discussion. A phenomenal all-around athlete, with a nose for the action, he can literally play every position in the secondary. This season, he’s moving to cornerback, where his brashness and his aggressiveness will serve him well on an island. Observers need to nitpick to find flaws in Ramsey, who’s likely to use his junior season in Tallahassee as a launching pad to the upper reaches of next year’s NFL Draft.

Key player to a successful season: Freshman RB Jacques Patrick and/or Junior RB Mario Pender. No matter what happens with the Dalvin Cook situation, the Seminoles need more rushing options than Everett Golson. The 6-1, 232-pound Patrick and the 5-10, 204-pound Pender have the power and talent to get the ground game going without a problem, but they have to be steady. Patrick should be more of a goal line runner, while Pender has feature-back talent and upside.

The season will be a success if … the Seminoles run their streak of ACC championships to four. Sure, Florida State is facing a ton of turnover and challenges entering 2015. But this program still houses as much individual talent as anyone in the league, so the bar should never be lower than a league championship. And it’s not as if the Noles’ toughest challenger, Clemson, is a finished product. FSU will have two months to gel on both sides of the ball before a Nov. 7 trip to Death Valley in a game that could decide this year’s conference champ.

Key game: Nov. 7 at Clemson. The trip to Death Valley is more than just the most difficult test on the schedule; it’s also the most important one. Obviously, the Seminoles want to get back to the playoff in 2015. More realistically, though, the bar should be set at remaining the ACC kingpin. But before making a return to Bank of America Stadium on Dec. 5, FSU must first get out of the Atlantic Division. And winning the Atlantic, as is usually the case, requires beating the Tigers. This rivalry has trumped Florida State-Miami in terms of magnitude, and could propel the winner to the championship game a month later.

2014 Fun Stats:
– Rushing yards per game: Florida State 138.1 – Opponents 170.1
– Turnovers: Florida State 32 – Opponents 26
– Sacks: Florida State 17 – Opponents 23

Players You Need To Know

1. CB Jalen Ramsey, Jr.
Ramsey is one of the most versatile defensive backs in the country entering 2015. And that’s a good thing, because the Seminoles might need him to play corner now that P.J. Williams and Ronald Darby have elected to enter the NFL Draft. Ramsey is a multifaceted, high-energy athlete whose instincts and football intelligence often go undervalued. A year ago, he parlayed 79 tackles, 9.5 stops for loss, three sacks, two picks and a team-high dozen pass breakups into the All-ACC First Team. This year, the 6-1, 201-pound star uses what will likely be his final year in Tallahassee to earn a first-round grade from NFL scouts.

2. RB Dalvin Cook, Soph.
It’s taken years, but Florida State finally has a genuine feature back to build a ground game around – and now he’s suspended for allegedly hitting a woman in a bar. While he’s an undeniable talent, he has to be back in the mix first. Cook started slowly in his debut out of Miami Central (Fla.) High School, but eventually evolved into one of the offensive focal points finishing with 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns on 170 carries, while catching 22 passes for 203 yards. And when other teens were fading late in their rookie seasons, Cook was just heating up, going for more than 100 yards in his final three games. He’s an elusive and strong 6-0, 203-pounder, who now needs to improve his durability and ball security – and he has to get back on the team.

3. LB Terrance Smith, Sr.
Now more than ever, Florida State needs Smith to be at full strength … and not just in the preseason. He’s the headliner of the linebackers, even more so since Reggie Northrup tore his ACL in the Rose Bowl. Smith was saddled with knee problems in 2014, and missed two games, yet still was named to the All-ACC Second Team. He’s a punishing 6-4, 231-pound run defender, with the range of a safety. And he’s capable of zooming past last year’s 87 tackles, 4.5 stops for loss and two picks, especially with Northrup out of the picture for the foreseeable future.

4. PK Roberto Aguayo, Jr.
Aguayo actually had to ponder whether to consider early entry into the 2015 NFL Draft. Yeah, he’s that rare of a placekicker. He’s had arguably the best first half to a career of any kicker in college football history, winning the Groza Award in 2013 and becoming a finalist a year ago. Aguayo is the total package at the position, clutch, accurate and able to reach the goalposts from beyond 50 yards. Through two seasons, the All-American has hit all 149 of his extra point attempts and 48-of-52 field goal tries.

5. OT Roderick Johnson, Soph.
Johnson is the 6-7, 312-pound silver lining in an otherwise unsettled offensive line situation. Florida State lost five talented and experienced senior blockers to graduation, leaving Johnson as the new anchor of the unit. He cracked the lineup late in the year, started five games and blocked as well as any rookie in 2014. And Johnson isn’t just an enormous physical presence; those long arms accompany surprising agility and the technique to develop into one of assistant Rick Trickett’s best pupils ever.

6. LB Reggie Northrup, Sr.
Northrup’s talent is not a question mark. However, his recovery from an ACL tear suffered in January’s Rose Bowl will need to be monitored closely this summer. Northrup excelled in his first year as a starter, earning Third Team All-ACC after racking up a team-high 122 tackles, four stops for loss and a sack. While only 6-1 and 226 pounds, he has tremendous range, and will lower the boom like a much bigger linebacker. Northrup was unavailable in the spring, but hopes to be available for contact when the Seminoles reconvene for practice in August.

7. QB Everett Golson, Sr.
Thank you, Malik Zaire. The development of Zaire in South Bend was the impetus for Golson to transfer for his final year. And voila, the Seminoles now have a veteran with two full seasons of starting experience on the resume. Golson has played in plenty of big games, including the 2013 National Championship Game, so he shouldn’t be rattled by the challenge ahead. But the strong-armed 6-0, 200-pounder needs to cut down on his mistakes, especially at a program that had so many issues with turnovers in 2014. Golson threw for 29 touchdowns and 3,445 yards on 256-of-427 passing in his Irish finale. However, he was also picked off 14 times, including four pick-sixes, and lost eight fumbles

8. WR Travis Rudolph, Soph.
Now that WR Rashad Greene and TE Nick O’Leary have graduated, Rudolph is positioned to become the new centerpiece of the Seminole passing game. He made a smooth transition from high school, starting late in the year and finishing with 38 receptions for 555 yards and four touchdowns. And he’s only just begun in his development. The 6-2, 187-pound Rudolph is a smooth route-runner out of the slot, quickly locating the openings and making defenders miss in space.

9. S Nate Andrews, Jr.
Andrews is a bit of an enigma in Tallahassee. He’s an average athlete, and susceptible in coverage, but he’s also a high-motor guy with a nose for the ball. In other words, he’s a good fit for the “money” position, which allows for more chances to play in the box. At 5-11 and 204 pounds, Andrews is too small to grab a linebacker opening, yet he did make 93 tackles, pick off three passes and break up five others a year ago.

10. S Tyler Hunter, Sr.
Hunter enjoyed a successful—and healthy—return from a neck injury that curtailed his sophomore season in 2013. He started every game last year, making 65 tackles and eight pass breakups, and will back at free safety again this fall. Hunter is a versatile 5-11, 204-pounder, with the playbook knowledge to be a true quarterback of the last line of the defense. He’s not the group’s best athlete, though, so he can occasionally get burned in coverage when there isn’t support from his teammates. And he’ll be recovering from a torn meniscus suffered in the spring.

11. NG Nile Lawrence-Stample, Sr.
While it was somewhat glossed over and underreported, Florida State missed Lawrence-Stample after he was lost in Week 3 to a torn pectoral muscle. He’s a classic run-stuffer at the nose and the kind of space-eater who helps makes his teammates more effective. At a stout 6-1 and 323 pounds, Lawrence-Stample won’t make a ton of plays in the backfield, but he’s quick for his size, and his strength and experience will be assets to the 2015 run defense.

12. WR Jesus Wilson, Jr.
Whether or not he cracks the lineup in the slot, Wilson will play a key role in the passing game this fall. A year ago, he started only six games, yet still finished third on the ‘Noles with 42 receptions for 527 yards and four touchdowns. Plus, now that Rashad Greene has graduated, Wilson is liable to fill the role of the elusive playmaker on offense. He’s a slippery 5-9, 181-pounder who can be used in myriad ways, like jet sweeps, bubble screens and quick hitches, to accentuate his speed and open-field moves.

13. WR Ermon Lane, Soph.
Although other Seminole rookies generated more headlines, the narrative regarding Lane remains the same—he’s a budding superstar in Tallahassee. The five-star gem from the 2014 recruiting class got his feet wet last year with a pair of starts and 13 receptions for 267 yards and a touchdown. However, so much more is expected this season from the athletic 6-3, 205-pounder. Lane should be a full-timer on the outside at “X”, where his maturity and ball skills will receive a much wider aperture in 2015.

Head Coach: Jimbo Fisher
6th year: 58-11
Schedule

Sept. 5

Texas State
Sept. 12 South Florida
Sept. 18 at Boston College
Sept. 26 OPEN DATE
Oct. 3 at Wake Forest
Oct. 10 Miami
Oct. 17 Louisville
Oct. 24 at Georgia Tech
Oct. 31 Syracuse
Nov. 7 at Clemson
Nov. 14 NC State
Nov. 21 Chattanooga
Nov. 28 at Florida
Ten Best FSU Players
1. CB Jalen Ramsey, Jr.
2. RB Dalvin Cook, Soph.
3. LB Terrance Smith, Sr.
4. PK Roberto Aguayo, Jr.
5. OT Roderick Johnson, Soph.
6. LB Reggie Northrup, Sr.
7. QB Everett Golson, Sr.
8. WR Travis Rudolph, Soph.
9. S Nate Andrews, Jr.
10. S Tyler Hunter, Sr.