2015 CFB Preview – ULM

 
   

Just when it seemed like ULM was starting to become a player in the Sun Belt, the balloon popped.

By Pete Fiutak | @PeteFiutak

The program had its moment in 2012 when it shocked Arkansas, pushed Auburn in a 31-28 loss, and almost beat Baylor and RGIII in a 47-42 firefight on the way to an 8-5 season, and last year’s 6-6 campaign was a positive for a program not used to a whole bunch of success since it rocked at the D-IAA level in the early 1990s.

And then came last season’s clunker, and now comes the year that decides the future of the program and where it’s heading.

Head coach Todd Berry now has a five-year record of 27-34 and has just one winning season. Considering there wasn’t any offensive production last year at times, with an ugly run of seven losses in the final seven games to close things out, it didn’t exactly look like the Warhawks were hitting their stride in the Berry era.

But there are several positives, and there’s hope for a quick turnaround.

Nine starters are back on a defense that did a decent job, especially against the pass, allowing fewer than 24 points in four of the last six games. The offense might not have had any running game, but that’s partly because the attack relied so much on Pete Thomas throwing the ball.

The other big plus? ULM’s last five losses all came by six point or fewer. The team was right there in games against Texas State, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Lafayette, and even Texas A&M with several chances to pull out wins. If just two of those games went the other way, it’s a 6-6 season and the narrative changes. But, of course, you can’t do that, and 4-8 is 4-8 no matter how it happened.

This year’s team is more experienced, the coaching staff has a few new assistants in different spots to try to ramp things up, and there are plenty of Sun Belt stars to work around. It might not be 2012 again, but there’s reason to expect a lot more.

What You Need To Know About The Offense: After finishing 106th in the nation in offense and 123rd in rushing, can the offense balance things out better? It was all about the passing attack last season, but not the line has to do far more for a ground game that came up with a mere 834 yards. Expect more rushing out of the quarterback – depending on who rises up from an interesting race – and expect more out of Tyler Cain behind a veteran line. ULM will still throw the ball with Rashon Ceaser and Ajalen Holley two of the Sun Belt’s better targets.

What You Need To Know About The Defense: Excellent throughout last season, the defense that finished 14th in the nation in pass defense and allowed just 373 yards per game overall. With nine starters back, expect even more out of the 3-3-5 alignment. The line will be a strength with Gerrand Johnson in the interior and good options on the ends. The top four tacklers return and six of the top seven are back, with the quickness and experience to be terrific against the run. The pass rush should be terrific, and there should be activity from the eight on a consistent basis.

What to watch for on offense: More offensive balance. Head coach Todd Berry will take over the playcalling duties and should try to generate a little more offensive pop. Last year, it was all about a passing game that cranked up 280 yards per game. Unfortunately, the ground attack went absolutely nowhere, cracking the 100-yard mark just once over the final nine games. The ULM rushing attack rocked for a six game stretch to start the 2012 season, but since then, not so much. Having more rushing production from the quarterback will help.

What to watch for on defense: Even more success. The run defense was solid, the secondary did its job, and overall, ULM came up with a great season finishing 47th in the nation in total defense. But it can do more. The run defense got worse as the season went on, and it’s not just because it faced running teams like Georgia Southern and Louisiana Lafayette late in the year. The Warhawks were great when they go to tee off into the backfield, but they struggled to come up with big plays at key times and didn’t do enough to get off the field and control time of possession. With the top three sackers back, the pass rush should be better and the defense should be a force.

The team will be far better if … the offense can move the ball a bit on the ground. First downs were hard to come by, generating just 221 on the year after coming up with just 212 the year before. By comparison, when the offense was clicking in 2012, it came up with 309 first downs. Considering the defense did its job, the offense didn’t help the cause by moving the chains often enough. Worse yet, the offense almost never had third-and-short situations, coming up with just one rushing first down against ULL and two against Georgia Southern – and none against LSU. ULM simply has to control games better.

The schedule: The Warhawks have just three games in September, and two of them are against Georgia and Alabama on the road. It’s going to be a rough run before going into October.
– ULM not only has a nasty game with Georgia Southern and its offense to start the Sun Belt season, but it needs to win it with four of the next five games on the road. Worse yet, ULM has just two home games from October 3rd until December.
– One of the road games, though, is at Hawaii, meaning the Warhawks have to play 13 games. On the plus side, the late November trip is like a bowl game with 11 days off after going to Texas State
– There’s no South Alabama to deal with, but in a horrible break, ULM doesn’t play a bad Georgia State.
– WHAT TO WATCH OUT FOR … Troy. It’s a winnable game the Warhawks have to come up with in the midst of the nasty road stretch. After being on the road at Idaho, and after the rivalry game with Louisiana-Lafayette, Troy could be a major trap.

Best offensive player: Senior WR Rashon Ceaser. The Sun Belt all-star came up with a strong 65-catch season with five scores while also serving as the team’s top punt returner. Don’t expect the same numbers as the team’s top target without Pete Thomas throwing the ball anymore, but with his experience, quickness and ability in the open field, the coaching staff will figure out several ways to get the ball in his hands.

Best defensive player: Senior DT Gerrand Johnson. The main on the inside, he’s not a massive presence, but at 6-0 and 280 pounds, the former Missouri Tiger is built to hold up on the nose. Quick off the ball, he was seemingly in on just about everything against the run and was great in the backfield with a team-leading 11 tackles for loss while coming up with a team-topping 92 stops. More than just an anchor, he’s a disruptive force.

Key player to a successful season: Senior QB Brayle Brown. However, redshirt freshman Garrett Smith is going to be front-and-center in the quarterback race to replace Pete Thomas. Brown would’ve been the easy choice to be the main man before getting banged up in spring ball. He’s expected to be back and fine this fall after suffering a shoulder injury, but it allowed Smith to rise up and show what he can do. No matter who’s at quarterback, there will be more of a running game from the quarterback, even if the passing attack doesn’t shine like it did with Pete Thomas at the helm.

The season will be a success if … ULM comes up with seven wins. It’s going to take wins in most of the close games – a problem last year – and it’s going to take several key road wins, but nothing less than a winning season will do with nine starters back on defense and six on offense. Nicholls State, New Mexico State, and road games at Idaho and Troy are must wins, and then it’s going to come down to whether or not the Warhawks can come up with three more wins. At Hawaii? At Texas State? Appalachian State or Arkansas State at home? ULM has to be good enough to beat the Sun Belt’s better teams.

Key game: Oct. 3 vs. Georgia Southern. Barring a miracle, ULM will be 1-2 to start the season – beating Nicholls State and losing at Georgia and Alabama. That won’t matter too much, but beating Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt opener is a big deal considering all the road games coming up. ULM lost 22-16 to close out last year’s season – now it needs to come up with the defense to get it done.

2014 Fun Stats:
– Rushing Yards Per Game: Opponents 183.3 – ULM 69.5
– Second Half Scoring: Opponents 154 – ULM 107
– Penalties: Opponents 75 for 682 yards – ULM 53 for 425 yards

Players You Need To Know

1. NT Gerrand Johnson, Sr.
The team’s all-around defensive star, he’s built for the nose at 6-0 and 280 pounds, getting great leverage and pop, and is extremely quick and active off the ball. An active run stopper and the key veteran inside, he followed up a 56-tackle, 11 tackle-for-loss season with a team-leading 92 tackles and 6.5 sacks with 12.5 tackles for loss on the way to All-Sun Belt honors. Dominant throughout the year, he came on late with 11 tackles in each of the last three games, seemingly getting in on everything, while camping out in opposing backfields with 6.5 tackles for loss during the finishing kick. He might be a bit of a bowling ball on the zero, but he can play just about anywhere up front and produce.

2. LB Michael Johnson, Sr.
At 6-2 and 226 pounds on the outside, he led the team with eight sacks and 16 tackles for loss to go along with 83 tackles. While he’s not all that big at 6-2 and 225 pounds, he gets into the backfield in a hurry with two sacks against New Mexico State and with at least a half a sack in nine of the 12 games. Underappreciated, he only earned Honorable Mention All-Sun Belt honors doing a little of everything right, making 24 tackles in the last two games and with nine against Arkansas State and Appalachian State – he’s not just a pure pass rusher.

3. S Mitch Lane, Sr.
The team’s second-leading tackler and First Team All-Sun Belt star, Lane followed up a nice year as a nickel defender and a big hitter with 91 tackles with three picks and 4.5 tackles for loss. At 6-1 and 209 pounds he has size, range and toughness, coming up with 14 tackles against LSU, 11 against Georgia Southern, and generating a huge pick six in the shocking win over Wake Forest. An intimidator, he has the range, the instincts, and the experience to be among the Sun Belt’s top players again and get on the NFL scouts’ radar.

4. LB Hunter Kissinger, Sr.
A key part to the defensive puzzle over the last few seasons, he was thrown into the fire two years ago and came up with 73 tackles, and then last year he did even more making 85 stops, five sacks, and two interceptions. While he gets in on everything against the run, he’s also terrific at sniffing out pass plays – he’s a true three-down defender. While he’s not huge at 6-2 and 227 pounds, he holds up well and is a guided missile when he gets a bead on a ball carrier, making 13 stops against Texas A&M and 12 against Georgia Southern. Tough in the middle, he has the range to get sideline-to-sideline, and he could move outside if he has to.

5. WR Rashon Caeser, Sr.
The team’s best receiver over the last few seasons should be a mortal lock for All-Sun Belt honors again if he gets a steady quarterback throwing his way. The 6-0, 188-pounder turned into a bit of a surprise in 2013 catching 65 passes for 964 yards, and last year he was even more dangerous catching 77 balls for 872 yards and three touchdowns and averaging 9.5 yards per punt return. Extremely quick, he’s terrific with the ball in his hands on the move, needing just one step to get in the clear and go. It took a few games to get going, but he was good for five catches or more in each of the last ten games, on fire for a two-game stretch against Troy and Arkansas State making 22 grabs for 203 yards, and scoring a touchdown in each of his last three games.

6. WR Ajalen Holley, Jr.
Rashon Ceaser might be the team’s best receiver, but Holley is the most dangerous. The 5-10, 192-pound speedster out of Arkansas showed off his potential with a team-lead tying five touchdown catches on just 21 grabs two years ago, and then last season he became more of a factor with 57 catches for 863 yards and a team-leading seven scores, hitting Troy for two touchdowns and burning Idaho for 175 yards on six catches. A home run hitter, he averaged over 15 yards per catch an does a great job of stretching the field.

7. CB Trey Caldwell, Sr.
A shutdown corner, he’s one of the team’s faster players and can hit a little bit. At 5-9 and 189 pounds he’s not all that big, but he’s a willing tackler in the open field making 42 tackles including eight against Texas A&M. He also picked off a pass and broke up seven passes, missing two games in the middle of the season but coming back and taking over one side of the field over the second half.

8. S Justin Backus, Jr.
At 6-2 and 183 pounds, he has good size and can bring a little bit of thump, making 53 tackles with two picks and five broken up passes. Sound in the open field, he came up with 35 solo stops with ten overall tackles against Idaho, and with four or more tackles in eight games – now he has to do more against the run. There’s all-star upside with a few more big plays.

9. QB Brayle Brown, Sr.
Is this going to be his quarterback gig, or will redshirt freshman Garrett Smith take it? A terrific rushing quarterback who also threw for over 4,000 yards in high school, Brown has a big arm and good enough size to be like another running back. The 6-2, 200-pounder saw a little bit of work last season in place of Pete Thomas, completing 14-of-24 passes for 172 yards and a score with a pick and running for 15 yards on eight carries. With a few years of experience, he should be ready to take the reins of the attack, but he has to be consistent throwing the ball. However, Smith was the best option in spring ball when Brown was out with a shoulder injury.

10. OT Chase Regian, Soph.
Three starters are back on the O line, and with Joseph Treadwell gone at left tackle, Regian should grow into the team’s best blocker on the outside. He came up with a good redshirt freshman season on the right side, and he has the versatility to play just about anywhere up front. At 6-2 and 289 pounds, he’s not big, but he’s one of the team’s strongest players and is good on the move.

Head Coach: Todd Berry
6th year: 27-34
13th year overall: 56-93
Schedule
Sept. 5 at Georgia
Sept. 12 Nicholls State
Sept. 19 OPEN DATE
Sept. 26 at Alabama
Oct. 3 Georgia Southern
Oct. 10 at Tulsa
Oct. 17 Appalachian State
Oct. 24 at Idaho
Oct. 31 at Louisiana-Lafayette
Nov. 7 at Troy
Nov. 14 Arkansas State
Nov. 19 at Texas State
Nov. 28 at Hawaii
Dec. 5 New Mexico State
Ten Best ULM Players
1. NT Gerrand Johnson, Sr.
2. LB Michael Johnson, Sr.
3. S Mitch Lane, Sr.
4. LB Hunter Kissinger, Sr.
5. WR Rashon Caeser, Sr.
6. WR Ajalen Holley, Jr.
7. CB Trey Caldwell, Sr.
8. S Justin Backus, Jr.
9. QB Brayle Brown, Sr.
10. OT Chase Regian, Soph.