Path To The Playoff: Michigan State

    Coming up with the path the 2016 College Football Playoff: Michigan State

    Follow me … @PeteFiutak

    It’s been a great resurgent ride over the last few years for Michigan State, but for all the wins and all the fun, there’s been something missing. The Rose Bowl win two seasons ago was a huge step, and getting by Baylor in the 2015 Cotton Bowl was thrilling, but it wasn’t the BCS championship, and it wasn’t the College Football Playoff.

    No one was complaining about the Spartans not doing more, though. The fan base was through the moon over the 2013 Big Ten championship and win over Stanford in Pasadena, and even with the disappointment of not repeating the title run last season, there was no real beef with the two losses coming to the two teams that played for the national title – Oregon and Ohio State. But it’s different this year.

    Now, Michigan State is good enough to get into the fun. It’s not as good as Ohio State, but everything is there for the taking with one of the nation’s top quarterbacks, a loaded defensive front, and the potential to take that one big leap forward.

    This might be Mark Dantonio’s best team yet. If that’s really true, what’s Michigan State’s Path To The Playoff?

    Step One: The pass defense has to be better. Really, it does


    It’s sort of hard to complain too much about one of the nation’s top defenses over the last few seasons – Michigan State was No. 1 in the country against the run last year – but when it had to face a decent passing game, it got ugly at times. Marcus Mariota cranked out 318 yards and three scores – hitting 61% of his throws – in Oregon’s win, and Baylor’s Bryce Petty completed 71% of his throws for 603 yards and four touchdowns in the Cotton Bowl shootout. Most importantly, J.T. Barrett threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns in Ohio State’s win over Sparty. Almost no one else on the schedule – really, except for Maryland, who threw for 246 yards – could throw a forward pass. Michigan State won’t lose to Western Michigan to start the season, but the Broncos might be dangerous with a nice air show, and then comes Oregon. Fortunately, Ohio State is the only remaining team that should be dangerous through the air, but all it might take is one loss to screw things up, and it really can’t be against …

    Step Two: Oregon

    Yeah, yeah, yeah, the committee takes every team and every season on its own merits, but Michigan State has done its part to earn its stripes over the last few seasons. The overall schedule might not be devastating compared to what the SEC Westers have to go through, but there’s more than enough meat on the bone with Ohio State, Nebraska, and an improved Michigan as the highlights. It’s good enough that the Spartans can go 11-1 and make a really, really strong case to get into the playoff even if it doesn’t win its own division – no one will sneeze at a close defeat at Ohio State. However, taking care of Oregon at home is a must for several reasons. Lose to the Ducks for the second year in a row, and there’s no margin for error the rest of the way – 10-2 doesn’t get it done. Beyond being a tone-setter for the season in the second game of the year, it’s also the home opener in a season without a lot of big showdowns in East Lansing which means …

    Step Three: Be ready to be road warriors


    MSU faces nine teams that went bowling last year, both teams that played for the national championship, and one of the three games against teams that didn’t get to a bowl is the Michigan showdown. But that’s not the problem. Assuming the date down the road to Kalamazoo against Western Michigan really won’t be like a true road game – the crowd will be mostly wearing green – Michigan State doesn’t have to make any sort of a real road trip until mid-October against Rutgers. Even with that, it only leaves the state of Michigan once until November 7th and twice until November 21st. However, considering the goal is the Big Ten title and the playoff, going to Michigan, to Nebraska, and to Ohio State will all be more than just dangerous, especially considering there are four road games in six dates over the back part of the season. Go 3-0 in the big three road games, and the Spartans will take their chances that they’ll be in the mix for something fun.

    Step Four: The punting and punt return game have to be better


    Mike Sadler was a reliably solid four-year punter for the Spartans, but the net team punting stats stunk last season – and it wasn’t his fault. For such a tremendously coached team all the way around, Michigan State’s punt coverage teams have been just okay over the years, bottoming out in 2011 allowing over 16 yards per try, and stinking last year allowing 10.56 yards per attempt including a touchdown against Nebraska that helped make things interesting. Not having a great punt return game didn’t really matter, but it was at a Mark Dantonio-era low averaging just 5.77 yards per try. With the defense returning, rocking in all special teams will take all the heat off the offense.

    Step Five: Replace Jeremy Langford


    In a league with Melvin Gordon, Tevin Coleman, Ezekiel Elliott, David Cobb and Ameer Abdullah, Jeremy Langford picked a bad year to be special. He finished second in the Big Ten behind Gordon in rushing scores with 22, and he ran for 1,522 yards, but he was sixth in the league in rushing. Even with the lack of notoriety, Langford was a special part of the success with ten straight 100-yard games to close out the season and 18 touchdown runs in the last seven – and that’s coming off a monster 2013. It’s going to take a village to replace the production, but the offensive line is terrific, and the main man in the attack might be the best quarterback in college football. That means …

    Step Six: Connor Cook has to really be that good


    Is Cook going to be more Jameis Winston in terms of capitalizing on his pro potential or Brett Hundley? He almost certainly would’ve been the third quarterback taken in the 2015 NFL Draft had he entered early, but he wasn’t projected to be a first rounder and he wanted to come back to school. That means all the pressure is on his shoulders to be the type of quarterback and the type of leader who carries his very, very talented team to a whole other level. Forgetting the two horrifically bad picks he threw in the last two bowl games, he has been careful with the ball, a good decision maker, and the right mix of even keel playmaker and fiery competitor who fits what MSU has needed to do over the last two seasons.

    And now he has to be even better.

    He threw for 343 yards and two touchdowns against Oregon, but he also threw two interceptions in the loss. He threw for 314 yards and two touchdowns against Baylor, but he also threw two picks, and the Spartans needed a miracle to pull that out. Those were the only two games last season when he threw multiple interceptions, but he’s a proven big-game baller throwing for over 300 yards in each of his last five games against ranked teams including the loss to Ohio State – he was terrific – the 2013 Big Ten championship win over Ohio State and the Rose Bowl victory over Stanford. The talent is undeniable and the experience is there

    Again, now he needs to be even better.

    Is It Going To Happen?

    Yes, as long as the Spartans beat both Michigan and Nebraska on the road and Oregon at home. 11-1 with the lone loss to Ohio State on the road might be enough to do it, but 12-1 with a Big Ten championship will absolutely seal the deal. The 2013 team would’ve made a four-team playoff, and this team is better.

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