Any step forward would be a very, very big one.

By Pete Fiutak | @PeteFiutak

When you’ve come up with no more than two wins in four of the last five seasons, three wins in six of the last seven seasons, and no more than four victories since 2004, even the slightest bit of success becomes a really, really big deal.

Head coach Doug Martin is trying to do the impossible, but football life in Las Cruces is measured in baby steps.

The problem wasn’t just that New Mexico State went 2-10 last season for the second time in a row under Martin, it’s that the improvements didn’t come. It was nice to start out the season with wins over Cal Poly and Georgia State to match the 2013 win total by September 6th, but that was it.

By the end, the Aggies were getting 68 points hung on them by Arkansas State, and it was back to the drawing board. Martin is building, piecing things together, and trying to change up a program that’s looking for a positive identity, but it’s been tough.

The first step was to get a little bit of security. Cast out into the wilderness after the dissolution of the WAC, NMSU didn’t get the call from the Mountain West and was left twisting in the wind until it latched on with the Sun Belt. After one year in their new league, the Aggies have to start making something happen.

The offense clicked at times. The ground game was okay, the passing attack came up with yards, and there were times when the yards came in chunks – but the Aggies couldn’t close. There were too many empty drives and too many times when the offense couldn’t pick up the slack for a woeful defense, but at least there were signs of life.

Martin’s biggest job is to change up the nation’s worst run defense and start to come up with a stop here and there – any stop. There was a time a few years ago when NMSU wasn’t bad against the run, but it’s been a disaster over the last two years.

Nine starters are back on defense, and with Martin handling more of the playcalling duties, the offense should be a bit more consistent and aggressive with six starters back and more depth. If the returning experience leads to an extra win, that would already be big for a program that deserves a break.

What to watch for on offense: Expect more downfield passes. The Aggies managed to come up with 242 yards per game through the air with Tyler Rogers growing into a good-looking passer, but the lack of big plays was an issue and the 24 picks thrown as a team was a massive problem. The offense will try to keep the chains moving and control the ball a little better, but Martin wants to take more big shots. The Aggies threw for 300 yards or more five times, and now that might be a more regular occurrence.

What to watch for on defense: The youth movement will pay off. The defense might have been a light breeze against the run, and was destroyed by anyone who could snap the ball correctly, but the coaching staff was hoping it was a step back to prepare everyone for a big next few seasons. The problem for a run defense that couldn’t stop anyone is the woeful lack of size. There’s absolutely no bulk whatsoever up front, so the D will have to rely on speed and quickness – and a bit more experience.

The team will be far better if … there’s a pass rush. The New Mexico State defense is going to be small, so it’s never going to come up with big stops against the power running teams. So in exchange, the front seven has to be far more dangerous and needs to take more chances to get to the quarterback, right? The Aggies came up with just five sacks last year after generating 11 the year before.

The schedule: The Aggies get the paycheck against Florida to start out the Jim McElwain era in Gainesville, and it gets more SEC fun in mid-October against Ole Miss. All that matters, though, is what they do in Albuquerque against New Mexico the week before the date with the Rebels.
– Beating Georgia State for the second year in a row is an absolute must. It’s a Sun Belt home game to kick off conference play. Lose this, and it’s going to be another rough year.
– Missing Appalachian State from the Sun Belt schedule is a huge bonus this year, and even though it’s rebuilding, not playing South Alabama is a plus.
– The wins have to somehow come before November before going on the road for three of the final four games and with the home date coming against Arkansas State.
– WATCH OUT FOR … the run defense after three straight October road games against New Mexico, Ole Miss and Georgia Southern. It’s not a stretch to think the Aggies might give up over, 1,200 rushing yards in the stretch.

What You Need To Know About The Offense: There weren’t enough points, and the consistency wasn’t there, but there were signs of a major upgrade with more pop to the passing game to go along with a dangerous rushing attack. Larry Rose turned into a weapon running the ball, and QB Tyler Rogers had his moments, even though he threw too many interceptions. Four starters are back on what should be a stronger line, but the strength could be a rising receiving corps that should improve.

What You Need To Know About The Defense: A complete and utter disaster, the Aggies were dead last in college football against the run thanks to a front seven that would’ve been small by 1970s standards. However, it’s a really, really young group that has quickness, but needs a strong rotation to hold up better. Can there be more of a pass rush? Can there be more big plays? Nine starter return, but even though the emphasis will be on the run defense, it’s hardly going to be a rock.

Best offensive player: Sophomore RB Larry Rose III. Built more like a defensive back or a slot receiver, he turned out to be one of the bright spots of a not-that-bad offense turning into a workhorse late in the season with 35 carries for 229 yards and two scores against ULM, and carrying the ground game throughout the second half of the season. Able to catch, too, he’ll keep getting the ball as long as he can hold up.

Best defensive player: Junior LB Rodney Butler. It’s still a really young defense with several emerging players, and Butler is among them. He led the team in tackles last season from his spot in the middle – even though he’s not built for it – but he’d be better on the outside. There’s athleticism and quickness in the Aggie linebacking corps, but it has to be more dangerous. Butler will do his part.

Key player to a successful season: Junior DT Kalei Auelua and Sophomore DT Stody Bradley. There’s a problem when the two starting defensive tackles at the end of the season are 6-2 and 240 pounds. No matter who’s working on the inside, the run defense has to be stronger and tougher – the Aggies allowed way too many teams to establish the run up the gut. The spotlight will be on the line to be more of a factor.

The season will be a success if … the Aggies win four games. There can’t be any misses against Georgia State, Troy or Idaho at home, but they probably won’t win all three. The offense should be stronger, and the defense can’t be any worse, so there has to be an upset or three somewhere along the way when someone is caught napping. Four wins doesn’t sound like much, but it would be a terrific sign that things are pointing up.

Key game: Oct. 24 vs. Troy. For the season to be a positive at all, beating Georgia State at home is a given on September 12th. After dealing with the Georgia Southern offense on the road when Sun Belt play picks up again in mid-October, there’s a chance to possibly be 2-1 in the conference with a win over Troy. The Aggies got blown away by the Trojans 41-24 last year – this game will be a measuring stick.

2014 Fun Stats:
– Average Rushing Yards Per Game: Opponents 309.9 – New Mexico State 179.3
– First Quarter Scoring: Opponents 110 – New Mexico State 52
– Fourth Down Conversions: Opponents 10-of-12 (83%) – New Mexico State 15-of-26 (58%)

Players You Need To Know

1. RB Larry Rose III, Soph.
NMSU’s leading rusher in 2013 finished with 456 yards. In came Rose as a freshman and finished with one of the best years in school history rushing for 1,102 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging just under six yards per pop, on his way to all-star honors. Also an excellent receiver, he caught 23 passes for 172 yards and a score, using his tremendous speed and quickness to make things happen in the open field. Not big at just 5-11 and 180 pounds, he doesn’t bring any power or bulk, but he makes up for it in the open field hitting the 100-yard mark in four of his last five games including 229-yard, two score day on 35 carries in the loss to ULM. Even though he became a workhorse late in the year, if possible he has to keep his carries to an efficient 200 times after missing time throughout the season banged up.

2. WR Teldrick Morgan, Jr.
The Maryland native redshirted and was out all of 2013, and came out roaring last season with a team-leading 75 catches for 903 yards and seven scores, and doing a phenomenal job as a return man averaging 22.7 yards per kickoff and 17 yards on punts. At 6-0 and 185 pounds he has decent size, but the Season Team All-Sun Belt performer makes things happen with next-level athleticism and quickness – he’s always flying with the ball in his hands. Dominate against UTEP early with 202 yards and a score, he finished with four 100-yard games and exploded when he was right, missing two games along the way. He needs to come up with at least six catches a game for the offense to move.

3. LB Rodney Butler, Jr.
The team’s leading tackler, the man in the middle came up with 119 tackles and 7.5 tackles for loss along with a key 40-yard pick six in the win over Georgia State. Even though he’s only 6-1 and 212 pounds, he’s a consistently great tackler coming up with ten or more in eight games with 17 against UTEP and 16 against Georgia Southern. Very active, he has the talent and athleticism to always be around the ball, and now he should be in the hunt for Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year honors.

4. LB Derek Ibekwe, Soph.
The 6-0, 214-pound strongside defender might not be all that big, but he’s strong tackler and a natural playmaker with good quickness and decent instincts. Second on the team in tackles, he came up with 101 stops and four tackles for loss, hitting both Cal Poly and Troy for 14 tackles, and doing a good job in the open field all season long. He gets erased by the stronger O linemen on the move, but when he gets a chance to operate in the open, he’s solid.

5. OG Isaiah Folasa-Lutui, Sr.
The experienced main man for the O line last year, now he really knows what he’s doing. At 6-3 and 309 pounds he’s not huge, but he’s versatile and he’s the one the offense works behind. He slimmed down after starting out his career at 335 pounds, and he’s an anchor who can move when needed. Four starters are back up front, and it’ll work around Folasa-Lutui at left guard.

6. LB Dalton Herrington, Soph.
One of the team’s rising young stars, he’s a safety working at linebacker with great speed and range, but the toughness to survive. He’s only 6-2 and 195 pounds, and he was a dangerous high school wide receiver as well as a defensive back, but he worked as a combination of weakside linebacker and tough safety throughout last season. While he didn’t do enough against the pass, he made 85 tackles with 14 against both Georgia Southern and Idaho – he’s great in the open field.

7. DT Kalei Aeulua, Jr.
Way small for a defensive tackle, he was used inside on tiny line last season, but he’s more of a natural end at just 6-2 and 240 pounds. The Hawaii native is plucky and active, turning into a devastating high school pass rusher and showing glimpses of the quickness off the ball last year making 43 tackles with 2.5 tackles for loss. He’ll never hold up against the stronger run blockers, but he’ll be a good part of a rotation.

8. QB Tyler Rogers, Jr.
Okay when thrown to the wolves right away, he completed 62% of his passes for 2,770 yards with 19 touchdown passes, but he threw 23 interceptions. He wasn’t a superstar recruit by any means, but he was brought in right away to take over the starting quarterback job, and he had his moments. Good at Arizona Western, he had a slight problem with picks that turned into a huge problem with the Aggies, giving up two or more in every game but three and throwing an interception in every game. At 6-3 and 200 pounds he has good size and nice athleticism – rushing for 200 yards and two scores – and now that he’s experienced, this is his offense to run after hitting the 300-yard passing mark five times with 404 against Texas State.

9. RB Xavier Hall, Jr.
Larry Rose was the star of the running game, but the 5-8, 182-pound Hall had his moments finishing second on the team with 342 yards and five touchdowns. Too small, he was banged up late in the year and missed the final two games, but he was a decent and quick complementary back throughout the year. He needs to play a bigger role to utilize his quickness.

10. OT Houston Clemente, Sr.
With Isaiah Folasa-Lutui at guard, and Clemente back at tackle, the Aggies have a formidable left side. At 6-4 and 303 pounds he has decent size to go along with just enough quickness to hold his own at times. More of a guard than a tackle, he’s fine on the outside with the experience and toughness to become to grow into the job and be an even better all-around blocker.