Can the Rockets Still Challenge the Warriors Despite a Roster Shake-Up?

    Had Chris Paul been healthy, the conversation may have changed. Had the Rockets, a team that shot 36 percent from deep in the regular season, not gone

    Had Chris Paul been healthy, the conversation may have changed. Had the Rockets, a team that shot 36 percent from deep in the regular season, not gone 0-for-27 from three-point range, the narrative might have been different.

    The Rockets suffered a heartbreaking defeat in Game 7 of the Western Conference finals at home against Golden State. Then, they followed it up with what many would call a bizarre offseason.

    Houston felt there were changes needed. The front office parted ways with Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute and brought in James Ennis and Carmelo Anthony, drawing widespread criticism. Despite re-signing Clint Capela and second-round pick De’Anthony Melton looking like a good utility player, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook pegs the Rockets win total at 55 after a 65-win season.

    Houston faced similar questions a summer earlier when GM Daryl Morey made the trade for Chris Paul. Would CP3 be able to function with James Harden, another ball-dominant player? Could coach Mike D’Antoni integrate Paul successfully into his system?

    Paul’s individual numbers took a slight hit, but his presence transformed Harden and Houston’s role players. Harden became a deadlier three-point shooter and cut down on his turnovers. Eric Gordon saw increased efficiency at the rim and from the corner three. Capela became even more dominant offensively near the basket. Ariza saw an uptick in his three-point shooting. As a whole, the Rockets shot more threes at a more efficient rate with Paul’s arrival.

    This offseason presents a different challenge.

    From an offensive standpoint, the Rockets are upgrading from Mbah a Moute to Ennis, who is younger and a better three-point shooter. Ennis was less effective defensively, but his 6-7, 210 pound frame should allow him to at least challenge wings on the perimeter.

    Ennis is also more comfortable in his role as a shooter. Mbah a Moute took 50 percent of his shots last season from behind the arc, a massive jump from 29 percent of his attempts two seasons ago. Ennis took 42 percent of his shots last season from three-point range and has stayed near that mark for several seasons.

    Carmelo Anthony struggled mightily last season in Oklahoma City. He took a large amount of deep twos and didn’t connect on enough of them. His midrange game was efficient, but the volume wasn’t there. Anthony’s three-point shooting was passable, but not near Ariza’s. It was Anthony’s offense that caused problems in Oklahoma City, not his defense. Will Houston be able to fix it?

    Anthony should get far more looks near the rim. He took just 12 percent of his shots near the rim last season, according to basketball-reference.com. In two seasons under D’Antoni in New York, Anthony took between 26-29 percent of his attempts near the basket. Expect D’Antoni and Paul to get Anthony more looks closer to the basket and bump his efficiency.

    Anthony also shot better from three-point range under D’Antoni in New York and could see similar progress in Houston. Anthony’s overall efficiency was the issue last season. In the Thunder’s wins, Anthony shot significantly better from the floor than in their losses. Will the Rockets be able to make Anthony more efficient?

    The Harden-Capela-Paul trio went 53-7 in games they all played, including the playoffs. If Paul stays healthy (he missed 24 games in 2017-18), that winning percentage alone would push Houston past the projected 55-win mark.

    With Gordon and P.J. Tucker returning, the Rockets have five key players from last year’s team coming back. Even if Ennis and Anthony totally bomb, Ariza and Mbah a Moute shouldn’t be a 10.5-win difference. Despite the roster shakeup, Houston is still primed to challenge Golden State for the top spot in the Western Conference.

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