Almost all of the bowl games were officially announced on Sunday, Dec. 2. The College Football Playoff selections took center stage early in the day and the rest of the games were filled out in the late afternoon.

Point spreads for almost all of the games were released on that day as well. The College Football Playoff semifinal openers were ready to bet almost right after the matchups were set and the other game games were available to bet later in the evening.

Information and other factors on each game can greatly move a bowl game line, especially after nearly a month of previews and discussion about each game. With the College Football Playoff and the other New Year’s Six bowl games quickly approaching, here’s a breakdown of how and why the point spreads have moved over the last four weeks.

 

December 29

Peach Bowl: Florida vs. Michigan (-5.5) 

Michigan opened as a six-point favorite and were bet up to a 7.5-point favorite within 24 hours of the opener. Now the line has trended back towards Florida, and Michigan is only a 5.5-point favorite. Rashan Gary, Devin Bush Jr. and Karan Higdon will all miss the bowl game and are important parts of Michigan’s defense. That is likely the main reason for the recent line move.

I agree with the line move towards Florida and would consider a bet if you can get the Gators +6 or better. I would question Michigan’s motivation in this game. They were favorites against Ohio State in Columbus and would’ve been in great shape to make the College Football Playoff if they beat their biggest rival. Losing that game for a trip to the Peach Bowl is a huge step down in expectations. Florida Head Coach Dan Mullen will have his team prepared and will look to make a statement in his first bowl game as the Gators’ head coach.

 

Cotton Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Clemson (-13)

Clemson opened as 11.5-point favorites minutes after the College Football Playoff committee released the semifinal matchups. The line peaked at Clemson -13.5 in some spots and now is sitting at -13 with less than 48 hours before kickoff.

I’m torn on this game from an against-the-spread perspective and I likely won’t have a play in this game. I will predict that the line in this game will drop as we move closer to the game. Take Notre Dame now if you think they will cover. If you like Clemson then you’ll likely get a number on the day of the game, so be patient if you want to back the Tigers.

 

Orange Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Alabama (-14)

Alabama opened as 13.5-point favorites against Oklahoma. The line has gone as low as 13 and as high as 14.5 before settling at 14 for now. Just like the other semifinal, I don’t have a strong read on this game and will likely look for other ways to bet this game.

The big line movement in this game has been in the total. It opened at 79 and got as high as 82. Then the number started to go back down as money came on the under and now it’s at 76.5.

I agree with the line move on the under. Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovaiola might not be 100 percent for this game so I would expect a run-heavy gameplan from the Crimson Tide. Running the football tends to lead to lower-scoring games because the clock doesn’t stop as much. It’s scary to bet the under with two prolific offenses, but Alabama will look to avoid getting in a shootout with Kyler Murray and Oklahoma.

 

January 1

Fiesta Bowl: LSU (-7.5) vs. UCF

LSU opened as an eight-point favorite and that number has bounced between seven and eight throughout the month. It’s currently in the middle at 7.5.

This bowl game loses some of its intrigue with UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton injured. Milton suffered a serious knee injury against South Florida in the regular season finale. Darriel Mack Jr. replaced Milton and led the Knights to a comeback win in the AAC Championship Game against Memphis. Mack Jr. threw for two touchdowns and ran for four more, but he now faces a tough test against a SEC program.

I’m curious to see what this line would’ve been with Milton under center, but I would stay away from this game with a freshman backup quarterback starting for UCF.

 

Rose Bowl: Washington vs. Ohio State (-6.5)

The line in this game has moved all over the place, with the main reason being Urban Meyer announcing his retirement from Ohio State. The line opened at Ohio State -5 and moved quickly to Ohio State -4 as early money came in on Washington.

The line ticked back up to -5 and then moved out to Ohio State -6.5 after Meyer announced his retirement. The reason for this is the narrative of Ohio State playing with extra motivation for Meyer in his final game as head coach of the program. The line eventually got to Ohio State -7 and dropped back to -6.5.

I would still lean with Ohio State in this game as long as the spread is 6.5 or less. Offensive Coordinator Ryan Day is taking over as head coach after this season, so I’m guessing he’ll take this game very seriously and come up with a strong game plan to prove he’s the right hire.

 

Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. Georgia (-13.5)

Georgia opened as a 10.5-point favorite in this game. It dropped to 10 at one point and has steadily trended up towards the Bulldogs. It moved to 13.5 about two weeks ago and has stayed at that number.

The wave of money on Georgia is because they almost upset Alabama in the SEC Championship. Many could argue Georgia is the third-best team in the country after seeing how strong they played in Atlanta, and there is recency bias built into the current point spread.

I personally like Texas to at least cover the spread in this game. Tom Herman is one of the best underdog coaches in the country so his team will be prepared and motivated to face Georgia.

I’m not sure how Georgia will respond in this game after being so close to winning the SEC title and making the College Football Playoff. I can see a similar situation to the Peach Bowl last season when Auburn lost to UCF as double-digit favorites.

Auburn had their chance to win the SEC and make the Playoff with a win over Georgia last year. Auburn lost that game and came out flat in the bowl game. Georgia not bringing their best game wouldn’t surprise me here, and a Texas outright upset is a possibility in New Orleans.