Week 8 of the college football season was the first weekend that cold weather impacted games across the Midwest and some other parts of the country. It was a good reminder to check weather reports before betting college football games this time of year.

One side I recommended last week was Kentucky as a double-digit favorite against Vanderbilt. Heavy wind and cold weather in Lexington made it very difficult for both offenses to move the ball. The total of this game dropped from 48 to 44.5 throughout the week and Kentucky dropped from as high as 13-point favorites to only 10-point favorites before kickoff.

The Big Ten had bad weather throughout the conference. It snowed for a brief amount of time in Madison during the Illinois-Wisconsin game.

The over/under in the Michigan-Michigan State game was bet down to 38.5 and it was a relatively easy result for those who took the under, and there was a weather delay in the first quarter.

The total in the Ohio State-Purdue game dropped from 69.5 to 65 on the day of the game because of heavy wind in West Lafayette. That game should’ve stayed under the total, but 42 points were scored in the fourth quarter of a 49-20 game.

I’ve made the mistake of not looking at weather reports in the past, and I’ve learned my lesson. It’s worth checking the temperature, wind and precipitation in every game for the rest of the season.

Now on to Week 9 where there are a handful of games that interest me, but they aren’t games I’m picking:

 

14 Washington State at 24 Stanford (-3)

One handicapping method I try to use in college sports is to bet against a team coming off a program-defining win.

This can be a win against a rival, a win in a nationally-televised game, or a win against a highly-ranked team. All three of those things happened for Washington State as they knocked off No. 12 Oregon on the same day the show College GameDay was in Pullman for the first time ever. Now Washington State has to re-focus and travel to Stanford off the 34-20 win.

Stanford was ranked as high as No. 7 this season before losing at Notre Dame and then falling at home to Utah. The Cardinal dropped out of the top 25 before the bye week and rebounded with a 20-13 win at Arizona State last Thursday. It was an underwhelming victory for Stanford, as Arizona State outgained them by 1.4 yards per play.

I was hoping to bet against Washington State here coming off their win at Oregon where the fans stormed the field. However, I can’t take this Stanford team in the favorite role because of their offensive struggles.

 

12 Kentucky at Missouri (-7)

Why is the No. 12 team in the country a seven-point underdog against a team that is 0-3 in the SEC? The simple answer is that Missouri is the better football team, but let’s look deeper.

Kentucky is 6-1 this season with wins over Florida, Mississippi State and South Carolina. They have a stout defense that is allowing 12.9 points per game, which is ranked second in the country. It’s been an amazing season for Mark Stoops’ team so far and they control their own fate to win the SEC East.

Missouri is 4-3 overall and still looking for their first SEC win. The Tigers lost to Georgia when they were ranked No. 2, stumbled against South Carolina in a heavy rain storm and then were dominated by No. 1 Alabama.

The reason Missouri gets respect when it comes to the point spread is their strong offensive numbers in games against weaker opponents. Last week, the Tigers scored 65 points and gained 646 yards in a win over Memphis. It was huge for Missouri to get back on track after three straight defeats. Kentucky is coming off a 14-7 win over Vanderbilt in a game where the Wildcats only passed for 18 yards.

The combination of Missouri having a high-powered passing attack with NFL prospect Drew Lock and Kentucky’s inability to throw the ball is why this number is at Missouri -7.

Another factor to consider: Kentucky hosts Georgia next week in a game that could decide the SEC East winner. There’s a chance the Wildcats might be looking ahead to one of the biggest home games in the program’s history.

 

21 South Florida at Houston (-7)

I usually focus my handicapping on the Power Five conferences, but there’s an AAC game that fits into a trend we’ve seen in the last month. The trend is undefeated and ranked teams losing and failing to cover as underdogs against unranked teams on the road.

• Week 6: No. 13 Kentucky closed as a 5.5-point underdog against unranked Texas A&M. Thanks to overtime, the Aggies won by six points and covered.
• Week 7: No. 19 Colorado was overmatched by seven-point favorite USC.
• Week 8: No. 20 Cincinnati lost in overtime to Temple as 2.5-point underdogs.

This week, No 21. South Florida is a seven-point underdog against unranked Houston. The Bulls aren’t coming into this game in the best form, as they needed a 15-point fourth quarter to win 25-24 at Tulsa in Week 7. Last week, they struggled at home in a 38-30 win over lowly UConn.

Houston is 6-1 with their lone loss coming against Texas Tech. The Cougars are in control of the AAC West and a win here would give them a three-game advantage over Memphis, who figured to be their toughest competition to win the division.

The spread might be a little too high to confidently pick Houston, but there’s a reason they are favored against an undefeated and ranked team.

 

Purdue at Michigan State (-2.5)

As I said earlier, I like betting against teams off huge wins – especially when the fans storm the field. So when Purdue pulled off a 29-point outright win as 12.5-point underdogs against Ohio State, I immediately looked at who they had on deck next week.

Unfortunately, they are playing a wounded Michigan State team that gained 94 yards and 1.8 yards per play in a 21-7 loss to in-state rival Michigan. I want no part in backing the Spartans after their lackluster offensive showing, also coming off games against Penn State and Michigan in back-to-back weeks.

The interesting part of this point spread was that Purdue opened as a one-point road favorite before the early money shaped this line to Michigan State -2.5.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Purdue won this game and Jeff Brohm continued to ascend up wish lists for college programs who might have a head coach opening soon. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan State won at home and took advantage of a potential flat spot for Purdue. Either way, stay away from betting this game.

 

Vanderbilt (-1) at Arkansas

I have interest in watching this game, but seeing Vanderbilt as a road favorite in an SEC game surprised me. It’s only a one-point spread, but this is a testament to how bad things are for Arkansas right now.

Vanderbilt has a 1-11 record in SEC play since last year. They improved to 2-9-1 against the spread in conference games in that span after covering at Kentucky last week. The last time the Commodores were a road favorite in a conference game was in 2012 when James Franklin was the head coach.

Arkansas has covered their last four games and won their first game against an FBS opponent last week with a 23-0 victory over Tulsa. They came close to their first SEC victory against Ole Miss in Week 7 and this is their best chance to win their first conference game of the Chad Morris era.