Welcome to the second installment of my fantasy baseball column for the year. As the intensity skyrockets in MLB, I hope you’re enjoying the last couple weeks of the regular season.

Last Wednesday, I broke down three different games and successfully faded Coors Field. This week, I’m going to focus more on individual plays like I do with my co-hosts on Payoff Pitches, Stadium’s weekly baseball show — you can catch it every Wednesday at 5 p.m. ET on Twitch!

And just like last week, my picks are for FanDuel’s main slate (which doesn’t include the Angels-Yankees game), so if you are playing on a different site, the players could be more or less valuable depending on the salaries.

Time to dive in.

Pitchers

Blank-Check Buys (above $10k on FanDuel)

Astros pitcher Gerrit Cole ($12,100) with his 39.4% strikeout rate is by far Wednesday’s top arm. He has the highest floor and ceiling of any pitcher on the board and has a great matchup as the Rangers have a 25.5% strikeout rate against RHP on the season (5th highest in MLB). Eat the hefty price tag with confidence, but if you don’t want to pay up for him, there are some solid options that I like below.

Flash Sale (between $8k and $10k on FanDuel)

Aaron Civale ($8,500) is arguably the best pitcher besides Gerrit Cole tonight, and he might have the best matchup of the night against the Tigers. The Indians pitcher is holding both left- and right-handed hitters to wOBAs under .270. His strikeout rate is also much better at home (25.4%) than on the road (18.0%). Combine that with the Tigers’ league-leading 26.6% strikeout rate vs. RHP, and Civale becomes a top play.

Clearance Rack (under $8k on FanDuel)

Adrian Houser ($6,500) is going up against the Padres, who strike out the second most in baseball against RHP (26.3% strikeout rate). Houser himself has a 25.1% strikeout rate on the season and oddly enough pitches better at Miller Park (known as a hitter-friendly stadium) than on the road. Houser struggles mostly against left-handed batters, but the Padres’ lefties don’t scare me.

Hitters

Blank-Check Buys (above $4k on FanDuel)

Bryce Harper ($4,100) hasn’t had his best season, but he still has 31 homers. Playing him tonight is more about his career track record and history against Julio Teheran — Harper vs. Teheran: 18/45 (.400), 3 2B, 8 HR, 19 RBI, 1.526 OPS.

Flash Sale (between $3k and $4k on FanDuel)

Last week, I wrote about Freddie Freeman ($3,900) in this same matchup, but was disappointed after he went 1-for-3 with a single and a walk, with just the walk coming off the Phillies’ Zach Eflin. That being said, I’m going to trust the numbers and go back to the well. Freeman is one of the best hitters in the game and destroys righties with a .424 wOBA, 161 wRC+, 50.6% hard contact rate, and a 26.3% HR/FB rate. Eflin is allowing a .356 wOBA, 40.3% hard contact rate, and a 41.5% FB rate to lefties this season, which is why I feel confident in Freeman tonight.

Rafael Devers ($3,600) is having a fantastic season and tonight should feature more of the same against Jeff Samardzija. Devers crushes right-handed pitching to the tune of a .403 wOBA, 149 wRC+, and 42.4% hard contact rate, while Samardzija is giving up more than 41% hard contact to both lefties and righties this season — and is an extreme fly-ball pitcher vs. left-handed hitters (47.5% FB rate). I am absolutely shocked he is in this tier with Freddie Freeman, so take advantage of their reasonable prices.

Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber ($3,600) has a career-high 37 homers and gets to face Tyler Mahle, who is giving up 2.47 HR/9 to LHH this season. Schwarber has been on fire in the second half of the season with a .968 OPS and a 142 wRC+, and against RHP since August, he has a .407 wOBA, 152 wRC+, 48.7% hard contact rate and 28.6% HR/FB rate. It’s a great spot to put one in the bleachers.

Clearance Rack (under $3k on FanDuel)

Boston’s Mitch Moreland ($2,700) gets to face off vs. Jeff Samardzija at Fenway. Hopefully he’s in the lineup since Samardzija struggles vs. lefties (see the Rafael Devers blurb above). This season Moreland has a .357 wOBA, 119 wRC+, 37.8% hard contact and 35.5% FB rate. Even more enticing is his 24.6% HR/FB rate, which indicates that he’s in a good spot to take one deep off Samardzija.

Twins 2B Luis Arraez ($2,700) should be hitting near the top of the order on Wednesday. The rookie Arraez has had a great season against right-handed pitching (.392 wOBA, 146 wRC+, 37.7% hard contact rate) and will be able to continue that tonight. He has hit safely in all but two games this month, including back-to-back three-hit games, so he should come through against the Sox.

Stacks of the Night

Dodgers vs. Brendan McKay: Right-handed hitters have had a lot of success against McKay this season (.382 wOBA, 39.1% hard contact), so most of the Dodgers hitters that are on my radar would be from the right side of the plate. McKay consistently gives up the long ball (2.27HR/9 to RHH), and the Dodgers hit home runs with the best of them — target AJ Pollock, David Freese, and Chris Taylor.

Cubs vs. Tyler Mahle: The Cubs have scored a few runs over the last five games (57 to be exact), and they have a great matchup against Mahle. As mentioned above, Mahle is much worse against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters, so stick with Chicago’s lefties. The wind looks to be blowing in slightly from right field at Wrigley Field, but it’s not a major concern. I would roll with Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist.

If you have any questions or comments, feel free to tweet them (and make sure to follow) @Payoff_Pitches. Don’t forget to join us every Wednesday at 5 p.m. ET on Twitch.

GOOD LUCK!

Get more familiar with Advanced Stats: wOBA, wRC+, Hard Contact, K Rate, GB and FB Rate