Ohhhh boy, what a Wednesday we had last week. Four and oh (shoutout to Patty Mills for being the only relative sweat play). I’m going into this week’s column with the confidence of Kramer barging into Jerry’s apartment.
We’ve had three winning weeks in a row, so can we make it a whole month of success? Rub the horseshoe above your door and put your lucky socks on because we’re going to keep the streak alive!
Categories:
Layups: The bets I really like and feel the most confident in.
Two-Pointers: The bets I like a lot and feel fairly confident in.
Three-Pointers: The bets I like but don’t feel as confident in.
Half-Court Shot: A long underdog I like to win straight-up.
Record: 40-35-1 (-1.7 Units)
Layups
Cavaliers -1.5 1Q (-105): The Cavs have been one of the best first-quarter teams this season, and most of their success has come on the road, with a stunning 22-4 first-quarter ATS record. They struggled in the first quarter at home in their last game against the Pelicans, so let’s bank on them getting back on track on the road against a Rockets team that’s .500 ATS in the first quarter. Sure, there’s no Darius Garland for the Cavs, but they have more than enough to start this game hot after a dud last time out.
Two-Pointers
Kyle Kuzma Over 28.5 Points/Reb (-110): No Bradley Beal or Thomas Bryant for the Wiz, so there’ll be plenty of opportunity for our guy, King Kuz. While Washington has been doing its best tank impression, Kuz has just been doing his thing, averaging 20 points and almost 10 rebounds in his last 10 games, while shooting 51% from the field. I would strongly advise not putting any money on the Wizards, but Kuzma has been consistent in the chaos in D.C.
Nuggets +2.5 @ Jazz (-110): This is the sixth and final game of a long road trip for the Nuggets, so that’s most likely why they’re underdogs. Otherwise, I’m perplexed because the Jazz are sans Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, and Joe Ingles. And they’ve been STRUGGLING without their star guys, losing 11 of their last 13 games and having their defensive rating drop to a vomit-inducing 122.0 without Gobert. To me, this seems like a good number to bet the Nuggets in a solid spot, especially when Nikola Jokic has been playing so well.
Three-Pointers
Franz Wagner Over 16.5 Points (-105): The Pacers are garbage. I’m sorry to any Pacers readers out there, but your team is just a heaping pile of hazardous waste. Indy gave up 158 (!!) points to the Hornets, then gave up 132 to the Mavs a few days later. The tank is clearly on in the Circle City and with it, comes the defensive collapse.
Franz Wagner has been averaging 16.6 points per game over his last 10 and faces a Pacers team without its three stars/better defensive players. Let’s take that knowledge and put our money on Wagner being able to put up some points against an incredibly bad squad.
Russell Westbrook Over 37.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-120): Phew. Ok. Listen. I’m going to have to take some deep breaths and really hold my nose when betting for Russ to do positive things, but this is too good of a spot to pass. No LeBron James AND going against the league’s third-worst defense? Sign me up.
Without LeBron, Russ is averaging 25 points, 6.7 assists, and 5 rebounds a game. Throw in those numbers when going against a struggling defensive team, and that’s a recipe for an over, baby. I was indeed born yesterday, so I’m really hoping there’re no shots that hit the top of the backboard or stupid threes from Russ. Either way, I think he should hit this mark tonight.
Half-Court Shot
Live Bet 76ers Spread: This isn’t necessarily a play, more of a strategic suggestion. There have been times of late where the 76ers have slow starts. For whatever reason, they have the fifth-worst scoring margin in the second quarter of games this year. And in their last three games, they’ve been outscored by an average of five points in the second frame.
My advice for games with large spreads — like tonight against the Wizards — would be to wait until halftime or late in the second to bet the 76ers spread (if they’re down) because they also have the fourth-best second-half scoring margin in the league. Keep those factors in mind and take advantage of a better number live with this Philly squad.
