Coming off a 2-3 week, we’re still positive in the unit category — by the skin of our teeth — which is the most important part. Not a ton of sides intrigued me tonight, but some player props did, as well as a good ol’ team total. Let’s stay in positive territory, people.
Categories:
Layups: The bets I really like and feel the most confident in.
Two-Pointers: The bets I like a lot and feel fairly confident in.
Three-Pointers: The bets I like but don’t feel as confident in.
Half-Court Shot: A long underdog I like to win straight-up.
Record: 50-44-1 (+0.02 Units)
Layups
Domantas Sabonis Over 11.5 rebounds (-113): Doma has been DOMAnating *wink and finger-gun* on the boards lately. Since joining the Kings, he’s averaged over 13 rebounds a game with a wild 21.5% total rebound percentage. The man gets boards.
You might look at the Pelicans and say, “Well, they’re a good rebounding team!” You’d be right, but you know who else is a good rebounding team? The Denver Nuggets and Chicago Bulls. Sabonis got 16 and 14 rebounds against the Nuggets in back-to-back games and grabbed 12 against the Bulls. I think Doma can take this bet home-a (I’m really sorry about that one).
Two-Pointers
Miami Heat Team Total Over 110.5 (-104): The Heat have been, well, hot. They’re 9-1 in their last 10, outscoring their opponents on average by double digits in their last three games and rising to number one in the East. I don’t know if they’re going to win, lose, or cover against the Bucks tonight, so I’ll hit their team total which seems a tad too low.
Miami has averaged over 112 points a game in its last 15, while the Bucks have the seventh-worst adjusted defensive rating in the league over the last 15 games AND give up the 10th-most points in the NBA at about 116 a game. With three of the last five games in the matchup going over the total, the two teams are no strangers to scoring.
Trail Blazers +11 @ Suns (-110): No Devin Booker for the Suns, yet they still are favored by double digits? That’s a big NOPE from me, dawg. Let’s ride with the Blazers, who really aren’t as bad as people seem to think. They’ve covered in three of their last five games and the Suns are 7-8 ATS when the spread is double digits. No Chris Paul and no Booker will hurt the Suns more than this spread suggests.
Tobias Harris Under 15.5 points (-110): With the arrival of James Harden, someone on the 76ers was going to lose out on usage. Hello, Tobias. The man has seen his field goal attempts go from the teens to single-digit attempts per game, and he’s even said he’s accepted his new role as someone who doesn’t always need to score. This line seems just a tad too high for a guy who’s seen his scoring role heavily diminished.
Three-Pointers
Jarrett Allen Over 27.5 points/rebounds (-125): Jarrett Allen’s been averaging 21.3 points and 14 rebounds in three games against Charlotte. It helps that the Hornets are last in the NBA in defensive rebounds given up and are the 10th-worst in the league in points in the paint, where Allen takes over 80% of his shots. I’m betting on another big game from him tonight. A word of caution: I would wait on the status of Darius Garland in case he plays, because you might get a better number for Allen if he does.
