We’re rolling and the vibes are good. A 4-1 week last week, two weeks after a 5-0 week. We’re seeing the board clearly and the gambling gods have been kind to us. Don’t forget to make your weekly offerings to them. I know I don’t.
Categories:
Layups: 2 unit plays
Two-Pointers: 1 Unit Plays
Three-Pointers: 0.75 Unit Plays
Half-Court Shot: 0.5 Unit Plays
Record: 54-45-1 (+3.26 Units)
Layups
Heat -4 vs. Suns (-110) only if Jimmy Butler plays: The Heat have been on an absolute tear since the All-Star break. They have a 10-4 record ATS over their last 14 games, on top of a 17-13 home record ATS. Plus, they’re catching the Suns on a back-to-back. The addition of Victor Oladipo has only bolstered the Heat’s offensive attack to go along with a suffocating defense. This line has dropped to a reasonable -4 from -7.5 where it opened, so as long as Jimmy is a go, take Miami to cover with this number and no higher than -4.5.
Two-Pointers
Kyle Kuzma over 8.5 rebounds (-110): You hear that whistle in the distance? The Kuz Train is back! We’re riding with our guy Kyle to have another big rebounding game. I like this spot for him specifically because he hasn’t had a big rebounding game in a bit. In his last two games, he’s only had five rebounds in each, and now he faces a Clippers team that is eighth-worst in opponent rebounding — not to mention they’re on a back-to-back. Kuzma’s Rebound Over train is pulling into the station, and it’s time to get on.
Saddiq Bey Over 21.5 Points/Rebounds (-115): We’re going right back to the Saddiq Bey well for his game against the Bulls. Similar to the Kuzma philosophy, Bey is coming off a game where he shot a dismal 3-for-11 from the field and didn’t crack double digits. He’s had too good a year to fade away against one of the NBA’s worst defensive teams. It’s possible he can hit 22 points just by himself, but a 16-and-6 type of night from him is easily doable.
Nuggets -6 @ Kings (-110): The Nuggets are feeling themselves lately, going 9-1 in their last 10 games while having both a top 10 adjusted offensive and defensive rating. The Kings have been… meh. And now, they lose one of their better players in Domantas Sabonis. Let’s tail one of the NBA’s hottest teams on the road with favorable matchups everywhere.
Three-pointers
Dejounte Murray Over 21.5 points (-108): If there’s anyone who has benefited from the departure of Derrick White, it’s Dejounte. He’s been on a tear of 25+ point outings, hitting that mark in four of his last five games. Now he faces a Raptors team that’s been treading water. The one concerning statistic for me is that the Raptors have been great at defending the point guard position, giving up around 20 points a game, but Murray has been on such a tear that I think this number is too good to pass up.
My super-informed college basketball futures bet of the week
Tennessee to win the SEC tournament +330: Many people call me Mr. College Basketball Bettor and by many people I mean me. So let’s just place a wee little futures bet on the Volunteers to win the SEC tournament. I like the number they’re at for a team that ended the regular season on an 8-2 run, beating teams like Auburn and Kentucky. Rick Barnes has this squad playing hard defense, hanging on to the 8th-best defensive efficiency in the nation. It’s March, so let’s get a little crazy.
