NCAA Tournament: Will A 16 Seed Finally Beat A 1 Seed This Year
The NCAA Tournament's No. 1 seeds boast a lot of losses, will this be the year that a 16 seed finally beats a 1 seed?
The NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 seeds boast a lot of losses, will this be the year that a 16 seed finally beats a 1 seed?
Since expanding the field to 64 teams in 1985, a No.1 seed has never lost to a 16-seed. That’s 124-0 all-time. Is this the year it happens?
Remember, unlike the NBA, there are no best-of-seven series for the favorite to recover following a bad outing. It’s win or go home every time teams step on the court.
So will David finally beat Goliath?
Parity is as high as ever and there is certainly enough statistical evidence to support that it could happen. Consider the following:
- This year’s no. 1 seeds have lost a collective 23 games, an all-time high and the most since 2000. Last year, the top seeds only lost nine total games entering the NCAA tournament.
- According to CBS, throughout the regular season, teams ranked in the AP’s top 5 lost 37 times. Twenty-one of those losses came against unranked opponents. Teams ranked in the AP’s top 10 season lost a total of 74 games, the most all-time.
- Twenty No. 1 seeds went down in conference tournaments during Championship Week.
- While the NCAA tournament’s No. 1 seeds are undefeated in opening round play, No. 2 seeds have not been as fortunate. Their all-time record against 15-seeds is 117-7. (Side note—two 15-seeds that could surprise this year: Weber State against Xavier and CSU Bakersfield against Oklahoma.)
Early lines from Vegas have Kansas favored by 26 over Austin Peay and Virginia favored by 23.5 over Hampton. The numbers for North Carolina and Oregon have not yet been posted, given they await winners of the First Four games played in Dayton. But it’s reasonable to believe they’ll be in the same vicinity.
In terms of historical perspective, reportedly the biggest upset in NCAA tournament history was in 1993, when 15th-seed Santa Clara knocked off Arizona, a second-seed ranked no. 6 nationally at the time. That line was a whopping 19.5 points.
To further illustrate this year’s parity, consider that 14 teams are 30/1 odds or better to win the championship. Kansas, North Carolina and Michigan State are the favorites at 5/1, but that’s Vegas essentially saying that nearly a quarter of the field has a legitimate chance to win it all.
So at the end of the day, will No. 16 beat No. 1? Not this year, though Oregon seems to be the most at risk. And until it does happen, nothing will stop schools like Florida Gulf Coast and Holy Cross from dreaming. After all, that’s the beauty of March Madness.
