The biggest college football game of Week 9 is a top-10, neutral site showdown in Jacksonville between No. 7 Georgia and No. 9 Florida. It’s a game that could decide who wins the SEC East and potentially start a domino effect of which and how many SEC teams make the College Football Playoff.

Here are three keys, along with some statistical advantages, for each team.

Georgia

Establish the run

On a per-carry basis, Georgia’s running backs were productive in their Week 7 loss to LSU. D’Andre Swift averaged six yards per carry, rushing 12 times for 72 yards while fellow running back Elijah Holyfield ran seven times for 56 yards and a touchdown.

However, the Bulldogs only ran 30 times for 113 yards as a team. Sure, the game changed when LSU took a 16-0 lead into halftime, but Georgia abandoned the run in the second quarter, when the game was still in the balance.

Ten of Georgia’s 30 running plays in the game came on one drive in the first quarter, when the Bulldogs marched 61 yards – once running the ball on nine straight plays – to the LSU 14, where the fake field goal was called on fourth down.

Here’s how Georgia’s next four drives in the first half played out:

• Punt: 3 plays, 1 yard, 0:54 – 3 passes, 0 runs
• Punt: 3 plays, 6 yards, 1:30 – 2 runs, 1 pass
• Punt: 3 plays, 4 yards, 1:22 – 2 runs, 1 pass
• Punt: 6 plays, 25 yards, 1:32 – 5 passes, 1 run

Despite the success Swift and Holyfield had on the ground on Georgia’s second offensive possession – most notably three consecutive handoffs that went for 12, 18 and 17 yards – the Bulldogs decided to try to air it out.

They had three straight three-and-outs following their six-minute drive that ate up the middle of the first quarter. The first three-and-out saw Fromm sandwich a a one-yard pass to running back Brian Herrien between two incompletions.

Georgia’s next two drives went run, run, pass, punt, as the Bulldogs couldn’t convert on third down.

Even with their relatively quiet running stats against LSU, Georgia ranks 22nd nationally at 226 rushing yards per game. The Bulldogs have four running backs who are averaging at least five yards per carry this season, so having fresh legs in the backfield shouldn’t be an issue.

In Georgia’s six wins this season, they ran the ball roughly 63 percent of the time compared to 37 percent passing, averaging 40 rushing plays to 24 passing plays. Against LSU, Georgia threw the ball 34 times to just 30 rushing attempts.

 

Win the turnover battle

On the season, the Bulldogs have taken care of the ball as well as almost any team in the country with just seven turnovers in seven games. However, four of those came in Week 7 at LSU.

Quarterback Jake Fromm threw two interceptions. Wide receiver Mecole Hardman and kicker Rodrigo Blankenship both fumbled.

It’s hard to win any game with a -4 turnover margin. Sure, Blankenship’s fumble came on a fake field goal on 4th & 9 where he wasn’t going to pick up the first down and Fromm’s second pick came in the final minutes of the game when Georgia trailed by 20. But the first three Georgia turnovers led to 13 points for LSU.

If the Bulldogs had held onto the ball on its first two turnovers of the second half, which gave LSU a short field to work with each time, and if coach Kirby Smart elected to kick a 31-yard field goal from LSU’s 14-yard line instead of running a fake, maybe the final outcome would have been different.

There will be a premium placed on not turning the ball over this week against a Florida defense that ranks third in the country with 18 turnovers forced this season.

 

Get seven points, not three, in the red zone

Florida and Georgia are both ranked in the top 30 nationally in red zone conversions, scoring roughly 89 percent of the time they enter the opponent’s 20-yard line. But neither team is elite at scoring touchdowns when reaching the red zone.

Georgia has scored 19 touchdowns on 28 trips to the red zone (67 percent touchdown rate; 48th nationally) and Florida is even less opportunistic with 17 touchdowns in 29 drives that reached the red zone (58 percent; 88th nationally).

The Bulldogs have scored touchdowns rather than settling for field goals at roughly a 10 percent higher clip than the Gators. That could be at least a four-point swing if Georgia can reach the end zone, while forcing Florida to settle for three points.

 

Florida

Dominate the line of scrimmage

One of Florida’s most clear statistical advantages against Georgia might be in the trenches, especially on the D-line. The Gators are tied for 18th in the country with an average of three sacks per game. The Bulldogs are on the opposite end of the spectrum, 116th nationally to be exact, with nine sacks in seven games.

The Gators’ pass rush was on full display in their 27-19 win over LSU, when they sacked quarterback Joe Burrow five times, hurried him eight times and recorded 11 tackles for loss.

Defensive lineman Jachai Polite leads the team with seven sacks, followed by Jabari Zuniga (4.5) and Vosean Joseph (3.0).

Florida has a top-10 passing defense, allowing just 160 yards per game through the air. If the Gators can apply pressure on Fromm while trusting its corners to run with wide receivers Mecole Hardman and Riley Ridley, that’s a potential recipe for a frustrating day through the air for the Georgia.

 

Continue success on fourth down

The Gators are second in the country with an 85 percent success rate on fourth down conversion attempts. They’re six of seven on the year, so this may only apply to one or two plays on Saturday.

But in a game where the spread is just seven points, a fourth down conversion could decide the game.

It played a significant role in LSU’s upset of Georgia.

The Tigers were perfect on their four fourth-down conversation attempts: a one-yard keeper for a touchdown by Joe Burrow on 4th & Goal, a pair of first-down runs on 4th & 1 on a drive in the second quarter that resulted in a field goal, and another Burrow keeper on 4th & 1 deep in Georgia territory in the third quarter.

Thirteen of LSU’s first 19 points were set up by fourth-down conversions.

With three running backs – Jordan Scarlett, Lamical Perine and Dameon Pierce – who each average more than five yards per carry, plus a quarterback who’s willing to run in Feleipe Franks, Florida has the tools to convert on high-pressure, short-yardage situations.

 

Lean on the running game

Similarly to Georgia, Florida has had success when the run sets up the pass and not vice versa. In the Gators’ loss to Kentucky, they threw 38 times compared to 29 rushes. Eleven of those rushing attempts were by Franks, which was as many as Scarlett and Perine had combined.

In the win against LSU, Florida favored the run to the pass 43 plays to 28, just like its wins against Vanderbilt (63 to 29) and Tennessee (34 to 19).

In four of Florida’s seven games, Franks has completed less than half of his pass attempts and/or thrown for less than 200 yards. He’s thrown an interception in each of his last three games and five of his last six.

It would be asking a lot for him to carry Florida’s offense against a Georgia defense that ranks 14th nationally at 174 passing yards allowed per game.