Personnel addition (Scooby Wright) and subtraction (Myles Jack) are just a couple of many appetizing elements to consider when considering the UCLA vs. Arizona odds and whether Zona can cover the 3.5 point spread as home dogs.

While it’s not official yet, the potential of adding Wright and his 14 tackles a game to the Wildcats defense is enough for many to think that Arizona will be ready to stop the Bruins’ occasionally prolific offensive attack.

What is official is the subtraction of Jack due to injury, and consequently, UCLA’s defense has the significant task of filling his void.

Headline gamblers that loved Arizona prior to this personnel news love the Cats even more now, but the real reason to like Zona can be found in stats that predate these developments.

Love Rich Rod or hate Rich Rod, it matters not to me. The often polarizing coach has righted the ship on what was a pretty damning historical pattern Against The Spread (ATS) as an underdog, and he’s got my endorsement for Saturday night. After going just 15-21 ATS as an underdog from 2003-2011 at West Virginia and Michigan, Rich Rod has brought Arizona to a much more suitable 8-6 ATS (57%) overall and a perfect 3-0 ATS (100%) in the underdog role at home. It’s a new team and a new outlook.

Comparing apples to apples (2012-present), Jim Mora’s Bruins have won quite a few football games, but they haven’t quite lived up to the gambling hype. All the numbers add up to one pretty conclusive and collective meh.

• 24-19 ATS All Games
• 14-14 ATS Pac-12 Games
• 6-5 ATS as Road Favorite

The 50% theme running through those numbers isn’t enough to lay a field goal, and when you look at the struggle UCLA had as 16.5-point favorites at home against a hard working but limited BYU team last week, the smart money favors the other side of the coin.

Put it all together and Rich Rod and Arizona go to a perfect 4-0 ATS as home dogs since 2012 on Saturday night.

MORE: College Football Bowl Projections After Week 3