Why Luka Doncic Will Have an Easier Transition to the NBA Than Dirk Nowitzki

    “He’s just too good. We get a guy we think is a franchise foundation piece.” That’s what Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle told USA Today when the team made a

    “He’s just too good. We get a guy we think is a franchise foundation piece.”

    That’s what Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle told USA Today when the team made a trade in the 2018 NBA draft to select European star Luka Doncic. The Mavericks paid a heavy price for Doncic, giving the Hawks the fifth overall selection (which turned into Trae Young) and a 2019 top-five protected first-round pick. But the team clearly felt the price was worth the player.

    Doncic made a name for himself on the European circuit after signing contract at age 13 with Real Madrid. He made his debut with the team at age 16, becoming the youngest player ever to do so. Still, European prospects like Doncic tend to withstand questions about their level of competition and their accolades achieved outside the traditional college route.

    Doncic’s 2017-18 campaign was the perfect answer to those concerns. He captured his third Liga ACB title while also taking home the league MVP award. Doncic also helped Real Madrid win the EuroLeague title. He was the MVP there as well.

    Since he didn’t play in the Summer League, there’s no feel yet for how Doncic will adapt to NBA-level talent and schemes. His ball-handling and finishing ability is evident from his Real Madrid days, but Doncic will still have his early struggles. Dallas was the best landing spot for him.

    Dirk Nowitzki was not good in his rookie season. He averaged 8.2 points per game and shot just 40.5 percent from the floor in 47 contests. The Mavericks had worked out a trade with the Bucks for Nowitzki prior to the 1998 draft and certainly expected more from him right away. Despite contemplating a return to Germany, Nowitzki remained in Dallas. The rest is history.

    Nowitzki leads the Mavericks in every important career statistical category. Whether he is willing to admit it or not, he’s the ideal mentor and foil for Doncic. In Nowitzki’s waning years, he will attempt to mold the franchise’s next cornerstone.

    “His transition should be a lot smoother than mine,” Nowitzki said at Mavs media day. “His English is better, he plays with a savviness that I never had… His court vision is something I haven’t seen in young guys like that probably forever.” And this came from a guy who played his early years with Steve Nash.

    “He’s been great,” Doncic said at media day regarding Nowitzki’s presence. “For me, it’s just a pleasure to share the locker room with him. We all know who he is and what he has done for basketball.”

    The Mavericks have done a good job surrounding Doncic with scorers at every level. Dallas landed DeAndre Jordan in the offseason after failing to seal the deal in a dramatic 2015 offseason; Jordan had verbally agreed to a deal with the team before heading back to the Clippers. With “Lob City” over in Los Angeles, Jordan will attempt to showcase his value on a one-year “prove it” deal with Dallas. Despite his inability to stretch the floor with shooting, Jordan’s has elite athleticism to make up for it. He shot 70.2 percent on attempts within three feet of the basket last season and made 212 dunks.

    “I will enjoy, really, throwing the lobs to him,” Doncic said at media day. Jordan gives him a great pick-and-roll big man and ideal floor runner to showcase his court vision.

    Doncic will have two strong shooters on the wing in Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes. Matthews has struggled with his efficiency in Dallas, but converted 38.1 percent of his threes last season. With a potentially reduced workload due to Doncic’s ability to play multiple positions, Matthews could see an uptick in overall efficiency.

    Barnes has been largely an afterthought during his two seasons in Dallas. After a miserable Finals performance in 2016 with Golden State where he went 5-of-32 from the floor and 3-of-15 from three-point range over the final three games, Barnes was shipped off to Dallas so the Warriors could make room for Kevin Durant. In the last two seasons, Barnes has seen his production increase as a result of an increased role. With Doncic providing additional opportunities on the break and off drives, Barnes should see his scoring jump. At 26, he will likely still be around when the Mavericks feel they’ll be legitimate title contenders. His chemistry with Doncic will be important to monitor during the season.

    The most important relationship for Doncic, outside of the coaching staff and Nowitzki, will be the one he forges with Dennis Smith Jr. The Mavericks took Smith Jr. with the ninth selection in the 2017 draft and believe he’s a big part of their future. Smith Jr. made the All-Rookie second team, but he’ll need to improve his efficiency and shooting ability to be Doncic’s ideal backcourt partner.

    “He’s really improving his shot,” Doncic said of Smith at media day. “I think people are going to struggle defending him this year.” However, the backcourt’s future won’t come to down to whether people can defend Smith Jr. It’ll come down to whether Smith Jr. can defend people. The guard posted a 110 defensive rating last season, which is near the league average. If he can continue to improve defensively, Doncic will have an easier time adjusting to the NBA game. Even though Doncic will potentially see time at four positions, his long-term fit with the Mavs is likely going to be as a shooting guard. It is imperative that one of Doncic and Smith Jr. develops into a good defender.

    Doncic’s transition will be easier than Nowitzki’s given the help he has on both ends of the floor. He has Smith Jr. and Jordan to cover for him defensively, and Matthews and Barnes will carry most of the load offensively. Nowitzki can still light up defenses from deep. If Doncic is the real deal, Dallas will find itself in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race. Even if he isn’t, the Mavericks will have the right environment in place for him to develop into the franchise player they expect him to be.

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